Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 19th May 2018

Newbury and Newmarket horse racing tips

It’s been another top midweek up at York, but there is no rest for the ITV horse racing cameras as they head to Newbury and Newmarket this Saturday to take in seven more races across the two venues – The Group One Lockinge Stakes at Newbury is the weekend’s feature contest – did you know that 13 of the last 15 winners of that race came from the first three in the betting, while 11 of the last 15 winners were aged 4 years-old?

As always, we’ve got all the LIVE ITV races covered with key trends and free tips!

Enjoy!

 

 

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

 

1.50 – Shalaa Carnarvon Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f8y ITV

12/13 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
12/13 – Had between 1-3 previous wins
11/13 – Had won over 6f before
11/13 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
10/13 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
10/13 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
8/13 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
5/13 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Drawn in stall 3
3/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Trained by Richard Hannon
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 4/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Based on the official ratings then this Listed contest should really rest between Cardsharp, Eqtidaar, Juliet Capulet, Murillo and Shabaaby. If we then look at some of the main trends then with 11 of the last 13 winners coming from stalls 5 or lower then Eqtidaar (8), Juliet Capulet (6) and Murillo (9) would all have this stat to overcome. So that leaves us with SHABAABY and CARDSHARP as the two we are going to focus on. Yes, the jockey booking for Shabaaby suggests this Hamdan Al Maktoum runner is the second choice with the owners main jockey – Jim Crowley – preferring Eqtidaar. However, the jockeys don’t always get it right. On a plus, the Owen Burrows yard have started the season in decent order so this is a plus ahead of Shabaaby’s chance. He’s also rated 107, which is the same as Eqtidaar so there is a strong chance that Mr Crowley had a hard job picking which one to ride anyway. A fourth last at the backend of last season at York in a Listed race was a solid effort and with another winter on his back can be expected to be stronger this term. Cardsharp was a busy 2 year-old last season and this will actually be his 13th career outing – miles more than the rest of these. We last saw him running down the field in the 2,000 Guineas (11th of 14) but ran well for much of the way so this drop back to 6f is a huge plus. He’s the joint-highest rated in the field (108) with Murillo while the better ground and – as I say – the return to this trip is a bonus. His form over 6f reads well – 1-1-3-3-3 – so based on that and with jockey James Doyle knowing the horse well (7 rides) then everything looks in place for this drop into Listed grade to bring out a much better showing from this Mark Johnston-trained 3 year-old. Of the rest, the Richard Hannon team have a fair record in this race – winning it in 2010 and 2014 so their All Out, who gets a 5lbs fillies allowance from the others, is another that should benefit from the return to 6f after finding 7f stretching her last time.

 

2.25 – Al Rayyan Stakes (Registered As The Aston Park) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV

14/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
11/15 – Drawn 4 or lower
10/15 – Irish bred
10/15 – Had run at Newbury before
10/15 – Placed favourites
10/15 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
9/15 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
7/15 – Had won between 1-3 times before
7/15 – Aged 4 years-old
4/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
1/15 – Won last time out
3 of the last 10 winners were Godolphin-owned
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Just the five runners heading to post here but still a fascinating little contest. Second Step and Scarlet Dragon are two proven course and distance winners in the field and can be expected to go well. However, both return to the flat off the back of 238 day absences, although Scarlet Dragon has been jumping since. They’ve till a bit to find with the 114-rated Raheen House, who was a winner at this level last season when taking the Bahrain Trophy on the Newmarket July course back in July. He returned with a below-par 5th in the Sagaro Stakes at Ascot last time but that was over 2m so the drop back in trip will suit. We can also expect him to have come on for that run and can go well. However, the one they’ve all got to topple is the Sir Michael Stoute-trained CRYSTAL OCEAN. The yard has a cracking record in the race – winning it three times in the last 15 years, with the most-recent being in 2015. This 4 year-old returned to the track with a gutsy head win at Sandown back in April and that victory was even better as it came over an inadequate 1m2f trip. He was second in the St Leger over 1m6f so clearly stays a longer trip, plus was a solid winner over this 1m4f distance when running away with the Group Three Gordon Stakes at Goodwood last August. Mick Channon’s Buildmeupbuttercup completes the field and was a fair fourth at Goodwood on his only flat turf run but with the yard only 1 from 28 with their older horses at the track that would be a worry.

 

3.00 – Al Zubarah London Gold Cup (Open Handicap) Cl2 1m2f6y ITV

15/15 – Had won between 1-2 times before
13/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
12/15 – Rated 90 or lower
12/15 – Carried 8-10 or more
12/15 – Winners from stall 8 or lower
11/15 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
10/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
8/15 – Won last time out
8/15 – Had won over 1m2f before
7/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
7/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/15 – Irish bred
5/15 – Raced at Newbury before (2 won here)
4/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/15 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Several interesting runners here and some fair trends too. With 12 of the last 15 winners carrying 8-10 or more and also coming from stall 8 or lower then the top three on the card – Connect, Masaarr and Dukhan all fit the bill here. 13 of the last 15 runners were also placed in the top three last time out, plus it’s been a good race for trainers Mark Johnston and Sir Michael Stoute. Johnston runs two – Communique and Poet’s Prince, while Stoute has Mekong. Frankie Dettori has a cracking 29% strike-rate when riding 3 year-olds at the track so his mount Dukhan looks sure to be popular too. This Hugo Palmer-trained runner ticks a lot of the main trends and has two solid races in defeat this season – the first-time cheekpieces are an interesting addition this time. The Clive Cox camp run two – Connect and He’s Amazing but the yard are a poor 0-from-39 with their 3 years-olds here so that would be a concern. In contrast, the John Gosden stable boast an impressive 26% strike-rate with their 3 year-olds at the course so their Glencadam Master can’t be overlooked. However, the two that I’m going to play here are the Roget Varian-trained MASAARR and Mark Johnston’s POET’S PRINCE. The Varian stable won this race last year so will be keen to follow-up and in Masaarr they look to have a decent chance. This 3 year-old stayed on really well over a mile to win a fair handicap last time at Doncaster so the step up to 1m2f looks the right call. Yes, more is needed in this higher grade too but with just 4 career runs we can expect more. Stall 5 is a plus and he also ticks most of the other main trends – like weight and recent form. The other pick – Poet’s Prince – does have draw 11 to overcome but he was a good winner when stepping up to 1m2f for the first time at Chelmsford recently. He’s not been out of the first two in his last five runs and looks a typical tough Mark Johnston performer – who, don’t forget, have a fine record in this race – that can excel now he’s been stepped up in distance.

 

3.40 – Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV

15/15 – Won over a mile before
13/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Had won a Group One race before
12/15 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Had won at least 4 times before
11/15 – Aged 4 years-old
10/15 – Having their first run of the season
10/15 – Winning favourites
9/15 – Unplaced last time out
4/15 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard (Has won the race 5 times in all)
3/15 – Won by a mare
3/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/15 – Won by a Cheveley Park stud-owned horse (won it 5 times in all)
2/15 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute (has won the race 7 times in all)
0/15 – Winners from stall 1 or 2
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 3/1
No winner aged 7 or older since 1958
The last Aidan O’Brien-trained winner was Hawk Wing (2003)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Onto the big weekend race and the first thing to note here is that we’ve not seen a winner aged 7 or older since 1958! With that in mind, the likes of Suedois and Lightning Spear, who are both 7 year-old, are overlooked. In contrast, 4 year-olds have by far the best recent records too – winning 11 of the last 15. Of the 16 runners 50% (8) are 4 year-olds – Accidental Agent, Addeybb, Alexios Komnenos, Beat The Bank, Lahore, Lancaster Bomber, War Decree and Rhododendron. The last three-named all hail from the powerful Aidan O’Brien yard but it’s interesting, and slightly surprising, that the Ballydoyle camp have not won this since Hawk Wing flew home in 2003! Rhododendron looks their main hope and also gets a handy 3lbs fillies allowance from the rest. She is the pick of Ryan Moore and was a Group One winner of the Prix de l’Opera in France last October. However, I’m not sure the drop back to a mile will suit and has actually only won 1 of her last seven. She’s also got draw 2 and we’ve not seen a winner from stall 1 or 2 in the last 15 years. I’m happy to look elsewhere. Limato will be popular and at a rating of 119 is the joint-highest in the field with Librisa Breeze and Deauville but he’s been beaten both times he’s tried a mile and is another that is often fancied for these big races but seems to just fall short. He’s won just 1 of his last 6 and the last 9 times he’s been sent off favourite he’s actually been beaten 6 times. Zabeel Prince looks an improver from the Roger Varian yard after an easy Listed win at Doncaster back in March. This is a big step up but he deserves his chance and having won 4 of his last 5 can’t be ruled out. However, the two I like here are BEAT THE BANK and ADDEYBB, who are both improving 4 year-olds. Beat The Bank won three on the spin last summer and can probably be forgiven his flop on Champions Day at Ascot last October. That was his 6th race of the season and he also lost all chance by pulling too hard. Prior to that he dotted up by 5 lengths in the in the Group Two Shadwell Stakes at Newmarket and on that form would go close. He’s gone well fresh in the past so the 210 day break is fine and Jim Crowley is a plus in the saddle. Addeybb is the other horse that risen up the ranks this season. He’s already landed the Lincoln in easy fashion and followed-up in the Group Two Bet365 Mile last time at Sandown. This is a step up to the top level but he’s a horse that’s done nothing wrong this season and looks likely to take the step up in class in his stride. James Doyle rides and the Haggas camp boast an impressive 26% record at the track with their 4 year-olds. Those against him will look to this being the quickest ground he’s encountered so far but he’s won on a good surface so I’m not too concerned about that, while off a rating of 117 he’s already right in the thick of things with the other big players in this field so doesn’t look to have much to find.

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

2.05 – Betway Fairway Stakes (Listed) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2f ITV

11/11 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
11/11 – Had won between 1-2 times before
10/11 – Had raced in the last 3 weeks
9/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/11 – Favourites placed in the top three
9/11 – Had won over 1m or further before
8/11 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Draw 1,2 or 3
7/11 – Had raced at Newmarket before (Rowley)
5/11 – Winning favourites
5/11 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/11 – US-bred winners
3/11 – Trained John Gosden
2/11 – Had won over 1m2f before
2/11 – Won last time out
2/11 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/11 – Godolphin-owned winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Just the three runners here which is a bit disappointing. However, all three yards represented here have recent form in the race. Richard Hannon took this in 2015 and 2016 so his Department Of War will be trying to add to that record, while John Gosden won the race in 2012 and 2013 – they run Court House. Finally, the Godolphin camp have landed the prize in 2011 and 2014 – they have the final runner – Old Persian – and it’s this one that gets the call. This 3 year-old is a proven course and distance winner here and rated 105 sets a fair standard. He was only just run out of things in the final stages over this trip here a few weeks ago in a Listed race but it was still a fair effort. His form at the course reads 1-1-2, plus William Buick, who won on him two starts back, is back in the saddle. This looks a bit easier and he’s taken to get back to winning ways. Court House steps up to 1m2f for the first time and if getting the trip can go well but breeding suggests it might be hit or miss as to whether he does get the extra yardage. Department Of War is the final runner but after only landing a maiden on his debut run at Nottingham then it’s hard to know exactly how good this one is going to be.

 

2.40 –Betway King Charles II Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 7f ITV

14/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
12/15 – Won only once before
12/15 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
12/15 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Winners from stall 4 or lower
11/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
9/15 – Raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
8/15 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by the Hills stable
2/15 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/15 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of last 4 winners)
2/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Another small field here with just 5 runners but really it will be a shock if Ambient is taking this so that leaves us with four. The Richard Fahey camp have been in decent order all week at York so their Great Prospector can be given a mention but despite running well in-and-around this sort of grade he’s not won now for six races with his only victory being on debut over 6f last June. Mutaaqeb returns to the track after a 203 day break and is up from 6f to 7f this time. Owen Burrows’ charge looks sure to be suited by the step up in trip and there should be more to come from this lightly-raced 3 year-old. However, this can be left to the two proven course and distance winners in the field – Purser and AURUM – with slight preference for the last-named. Purser hails from the John Gosden yard and so far is 3-from-4 over this 7f trip. We know the track suits too but my only slight concern is that since stepping up into Listed or Group company he’s been beaten three times. So that leaves us with Aurum. This Godolphin runner won by an easy 2 ¾ lengths on debut here over his trip and although that form is hard to assess he’s clearly held in high regard and with just one career run there should be more on offer. Godolphin have a fair record in the race so this one is taken to remain unbeaten with William Buick riding.

 

3.15 – Betway Handicap Cl2 6f ITV

15/15 – Had won between 1-3 times before
12/15 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
12/15 – Had won over 6f before
12/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/15 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time out
9/15 – Carried 8-12 or more
9/15 – Favourites placed in the top 4
8/15 – Rated between 91-96
8/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/15 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
5/15 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Won by a mare/filly
3/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Won by the Kremlin House (Varian) stable
2/15 – Trained by Richard Fahey
8 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 1-8
7 of the last 10 winners came between stalls 3-7
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Trainer Richard Fahey has a good record in this race – winning it in 2011 and 2014 – and after having a good time of it up at York in midweek then his pair Lucky Lucky Man and SHOWMETHEDOUGH can’t be ruled out. The last-named is the slightly more interesting one for me with Paul Hanagan booked to ride. Yes, draw 11 might be a small negative but his recent runs this season have both been over 5f and he’s not quite had the pace to stay with the field. He’s up to 6f here and his only run over this trip was a winning one. With just 8-10 he looks well treated, plus has form on a faster surface too. A recent 6th at Chester over 5f was another example of him doing all his best work at the end of the race, while the yard have been firing in the winners this week at York. Richard Hannon is another yard that does well here at the track with his 3 year-olds – he’s got Mayyasah and Yafta – entered here with the last-named looking interesting after a recent second (or 11) here over this course and distance. A 4lb rise for that looks harsh but that was also his first run for 7 months so should have also come on for it. Red Roman is the only proven course and distance winner in the field but with a decent 22% strike-rate with his 3 year-olds at the track the Mick Channon runner – TRICKSY SPIRIT – is the other of interest. This 82-rated handicapped won well last time out at Bath and a 3lb rise for that looks fair. She was held up that day and came with a good late run so the step up to 6f is fine and she’s also a winner over this trip in the past too.

 

 

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