Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 18th May 2019

Newbury and Newmarket horse racing tips

It’s been another top midweek up at York, but there is no rest for the ITV horse racing cameras as they head to Newbury and Newmarket this Saturday to take in seven more races across the two venues – The Group One Lockinge Stakes at Newbury is the weekend’s feature contest – did you know that 14 of the last 16 winners of that race came from the first three in the betting, while 12 of the last 16 winners were aged 4 years-old?

As always, we’ve got all the LIVE ITV races covered with key trends and free tips!

Enjoy!

 

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

1.50 – Shalaa Carnarvon Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f8y ITV

13/14 – Had between 1-3 previous wins
12/14 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
12/14 – Had won over 6f before
12/14 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
10/14 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
10/14 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
8/14 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
5/14 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Drawn in stall 3
3/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Trained by Richard Hannon
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A good race for the Hannon yard over the years so their MOYASSAR looks interesting here. This 3 year-old colt wo well at HQ last time out in a handicap to suggest this leap into Listed company is worth a crack. He’s the top-rated in the field too and will have the services of Jim Crowley riding. Draw 10 is the only niggle as 12 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 5 or lower – Red Impression, Sunsprite, Space Traveller, Oxted and Kurious are the five key draw horses to note then. Of that bunch, Ryan Moore is an eye-catching jockey booking for the Richard Hughes-trained Sunsprite, while the Henry Candy runner – KURIOUS – could have more to come. This filly gets a handy 5lbs from most of the others and should be a lot fitter for a recent second at Sandown. She ran on well over that 5f to indicate the step up to 6f will be right up her street. Space Traveller, Khaadem and Konchek are others that can make their presence felt.

 

2.25 – Al Rayyan Stakes (Registered As The Aston Park) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV

15/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/16 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
12/16 – Drawn 4 or lower
11/16 – Had run at Newbury before
11/16 – Placed favourites
11/16 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
10/16 – Irish bred
10/16 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
8/16 – Had won between 1-3 times before
8/16 – Aged 4 years-old
5/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/16 – Won last time out
3 of the last 11 winners were Godolphin-owned
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 4/1
Crystal Ocean (2/5 fav) won the race last year

JUICESTORM VERDICT: This should be a straight forward task for the for last year’s winner – CRYSTAL OCEAN. This Stoute-trained 5 year-old returned to the track last month with an easy win at Sandown in the Gordon Richards Stakes and being rated 13lbs higher than his nearest rival then looks to have too much in-hand. He seems just as good over 1m2f and 1m4f so the step up in trip is fine and Ryan Moore is a further plus in the plate. Raymond Tusk, Red Verdon and Laraaib look the most likely trip to chase him home.

 

3.00 – Al Zubarah London Gold Cup (Open Handicap) Cl2 1m2f6y ITV

15/16 – Had won between 1-2 times before
14/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/16 – Rated 90 or lower
13/16 – Carried 8-10 or more
13/16 – Winners from stall 8 or lower
12/16 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
11/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
8/16 – Won last time out
8/16 – Had won over 1m2f before
8/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
7/16 – Irish bred
5/16 – Raced at Newbury before (2 won here)
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Roger Charlton
3/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 15/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With 13 of the last 16 winners drawn in stalls 8 or lower, then you could do worse than picking one of the following – War Tiger, Target Zone, Forest Of Dean, Htilominlo, Solid Stone, Sinjaari, Korcho or Riviera Nights. Jockey Ryan Moore has a fair record in the race and rides Solid Stone, while the Mark Johnston and Roger Charlton yards have also targeted this prize in recent years with success – Johnston has Sky Defender and The Trader, while Charlton has Headman. However, of those 8 drawn low, I like the look of the William Haggas runner SINJAARI (e/w). This 3 year-old was really impressive at Windsor over this trip last time out and despite that only being a maiden gets into his first handicap on what looks a fair mark. Oisin Murphy has been booked to ride too and, as pointed out – he gets a handy draw in 6. With the good record of the Charlton yard in the race too I’ll also be playing HEADMAN (e/w) – who should be a lot better than his recent sixth at Newbury on ground that was probably way too soft for him.

 

3.40 – Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV

16/16 – Won over a mile before
14/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/16 – Had won a Group One race before
13/16 – Drawn between stalls 3-7 (inc)
13/16 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Aged 4 years-old
11/16 – Had won at least 4 times before
11/16 – Winning favourites
10/16 – Having their first run of the season
10/16 – Unplaced last time out
5/16 – Godolphin owned
4/16 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard (Has won the race 5 times in all)
4/16 – Won by a mare
3/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/16 – Won by a Cheveley Park stud-owned horse (won it 5 times in all)
2/16 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute (has won the race 7 times in all)
1/16 – Winners from stall 1 or 2
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 3/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Hannon camp will be looking for their fifth Lockinge success since 2010 – they will be pinning their hopes on last year’s 1,000 Guineas winner – Billesdon Brook – but this 4 year-old hasn’t won a race since and looks to have a bit to answer. Without Parole is another that’s form tailed off after looking promising last season but the first-time blinkers and Frankie riding then he can’t be totally ruled out. Beat The Bank is back up in grade after winning well last time out – but, for me, he’s a horse that just seems to fall short at the top level. O’Brien and Ryan Moore will be looking to add to last year’s success in the race – this time with Le Brivido – who looks a big player. He’s lightly-raced but would have a bit to prove over this 1m trip – however, was staying on well over 7f to suggest it will suit and should be in the mix – O’Brien also has I Can Fly but with Moore picking Le Brivido then he looks their second string. The Stoute yard also have a good record in the race (7 wins in total) so their MUSTASHRY (e/w) can go well too. This 6 year-old was a fair third last time out the Earl Of Sefton Stakes but looked like he needed that run and the drop back to a mile will be better. 4 year-olds also have a good record in the race so of this age group Laurens, who gets a handy 3lbs from the boys, will be popular but I was taken by the way MYTHICAL MAGIC (e/w) won in Dubai last time so he’s the other call. This Godolphin runner has only finished out of the top three once from 9 starts and seems a better horse since being gelded last summer. He’ll be fitter than most and the boys in blue have won this race three times in the last four years.

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

2.05 – Betway Fairway Stakes (Listed) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2f ITV

12/12 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
11/12 – Had won between 1-2 times before
11/12 – Had raced in the last 3 weeks
10/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/12 – Favourites placed in the top three
10/12 – Had won over 1m or further before
9/12 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Draw 1,2 or 3
8/12 – Had raced at Newmarket before (Rowley)
6/12 – Winning favourites
6/12 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/12 – US-bred winners
3/12 – Trained John Gosden
3/12 – Had won over 1m2f before
3/12 – Godolphin-owned winners
2/12 – Won last time out
2/12 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/12 – Ridden by William Buick
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Queen’s Eightsome Reel, plus Al Hilalee and Khuzaam can go well but the Andrew Balding runner – RAISE YOU – was impressive last time out at Newbury, winning by 6 lengths, and I think he can follow-up. Yes, that was just a maiden and this is a big leap up into Listed company but he couldn’t have done it any easier and with the Balding team having plenty of yardsticks to compare him too, must feel he’s up to the rise in class. With the yard having a good record in the race (2 wins in last 5), the Appleby runner – Al Hilalee – can chase him home.

 

2.40 –Betway King Charles II Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 7f ITV

15/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
13/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
13/16 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Won only once before
12/16 – Winners from stall 4 or lower
12/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
10/16 – Raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
9/16 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Trained by the Hills stable
2/16 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon (2 of last 5 winners)
2/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: This looks a bit of a shootout between the Simon Crisford runner – Jash – and FAR ABOVE, who represents the William Haggas yard. The former has won two on his three starts and was an excellent second in the Group one Middle Park Stakes – beaten just ½ a length behind Ten Sovereigns. That is solid form and makes him the one to beat. However, all his runs to date have been over 6f so the step up to 7f is an unknown. That’s not the case for Far Above though as this 3 year-old won over this course and distance here last month. He won with a bit more in-hand than the official margin but with some fancy Group One entries the Haggas yard clearly hold him in high-regard. His proven course form and having won over this trip just edge it for me. Azano, Watan and Glorious Lover make up the five runners.

 

3.15 – Betway Handicap Cl2 6f ITV

16/16 – Had won between 1-3 times before
13/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Had won over 6f before
13/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
12/16 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time out
10/16 – Carried 8-12 or more
10/16 – Favourites placed in the top 4
9/16 – Rated between 91-96
9/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/16 – Had raced at Newmarket (Rowley) before
6/16 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Won by a mare/filly
3/16 – Won by the Kremlin House (Varian) stable
2/16 – Trained by Richard Fahey
9 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 1-8
8 of the last 11 winners came between stalls 3-7
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With 9 of the last 11 winners coming from stall 1-8 this bunch of runners look to have a decent advantage – Tinto, Moraawed, Top Breeze, James Watt, Don Amado, Luxor, Dazzling Dan and He’Zanarab are the ones in question. A top three finish last time out is another plus, while stalls 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 seem to have the better record of the low 8. Having said that, this is a race the Varian yard have targeted in recent years, so their MORAAWED, who is still drawn well in 2, is the call. He beat another of the runners entered here – Dazzling Dan – by a head at Doncaster last time but feel he can confirm that form. He looked to have a bit more up his sleeve. Luxor is another that looks to have a decent chance for William Haggas – he ticks most of the main stats and has been gelded since his last run at Newbury. Fitness might have to be taken on trust but the yard often get them ready to rumble off a break.

 

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