Epsom Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 4th July 2020

Epsom horse racing free tips and trends

It’s Derby Day at Epsom Racecourse this weekend and like every Saturday we’ve got all the LIVE ITV races covered from a trends and stats angle, plus our free tips on each contest.

Yes, normally run in early June, but due to the coronavirus outbreak has been moved to early July – with the Epsom Oaks joining the Derby to be run on the same day.

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Did you know that 16 of the last 18 Epsom Derby winners had finished 1st or 2nd in their last race, while 12 of the last 18 Derby winners came from a single-figure stall?

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Supporting the two big Epsom races are five more contests – four of which will also be shown LIVE by the ITV horse racing team.

Here at JUICESTORM we’ve got all the ITV LIVE Saturday races covered with the key trends – use these stats to find the best winning profiles of past winners!

 

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Epsom Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

1:50 – Investec Woodcote EBF Stakes (Conditions Race) (Plus 10 Race) Cl2 (2yo) 6f ITV

18/18 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
17/18 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before
16/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
15/18 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Single-figured stalls that filled the first three home
14/18 – Had 2 or more previous runs
14/18 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
12/18 – Yet to win over 6f
9/18 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
9/18 – Won their previous race
5/18 – Trained by Mark Johnston (2002, 2003, 2011, 2015 & 2017)
3/18 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/18 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/18 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
10 of the last 12 winners were foaled in Feb (3) or March (7)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Just the five runners here but some promising looking sorts – last year we saw the classy Pinatubo win this race! Therefore, the Godolphin boys will be looking to follow-up this year – this time with a horse called Modern News. However, he was beaten in the Chesham last time at Royal Ascot and needs to bounce back. On a plus, the drop back from 7f to 6f here will suit and he won over this trip on debut at HQ and the Charlie Appleby yard have a 50% record with their 2 year-olds at the track. It’s hard to assess the newcomer Calcutta Cup, from the Andrew Balding yard, as he’s yet to race but they must quite like him to pitch him in a race like this on debut. Inhaler has shown a good level of form and can go well, while Twaasol was a nice winner on debut at Windsor. But the call here is for the Mark Johnston yard to take this with MUTAZAWWED. This juvenile ran well on debut (5th) at Newcastle, but improve on that to win at Lingfield last time out when stepped up to this 6f trip. The yard also has a cracking 48% strike-rate with their 2 year-olds at Epsom and also have a top record in this race – winning it three times since 2011!

 

2:25 – Investec Surrey Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 7f ITV

10/10 – Had won over 6f+ before
10/10 – Drawn in stalls 7 or lower
9/10 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
8/10 – Rated between 95-107
8/10 – Never raced at Epsom before
7/10 – Drawn in stalls 3 or higher
7/10 – Won just 1-2 times before
7/10 – Had won over 7f before
7/10 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
6/10 – Placed favourites
5/10 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/10 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Won at the track before
2/10 – Godolphin-owned
2/10 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The John Gosden yard have a 33% record at the track with their 4+ year-olds so their Daarik has to enter the mix. This 4 year-old won well on it’s return run at Newcastle but flopped in the Buckingham Palace Stakes last time out at Ascot. The softer ground that day might not have helped and he’s clearly better than that so could bounce back. SHINE SO BRIGHT has been running in better races than this so can make his presence felt now into Listed company. He’s a G2 winner and this 7f trip seems to be his best. A recent run in the G1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes should have him spot-on for this and ratings suggest (113) he’s going to be a big player here. He’s ridden by Silvestre De Sousa, who has won this race twice in the last three years. Safe Voyage is the top-rated in the field and rarely runs a bad race. He’s well drawn in 2 and ran the winner of this race last year – Space Blues – close on his return at Haydock last month. Any rain would help his cause. Vale Of Kent and Oh This Is Us are others to consider but both do have a bit of ground to make up if the official ratings are to be trusted.

 

3:00 – Investec Handicap Cl2 (4yo+) 1m2f ITV

16/17 – Had won over at least 1m2f or further before
14/17 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
14/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/17 – Had won at least 3 times before
13/17 – Came from stall 9 or lower
12/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Rated between 86-98
11/17 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
11/17 – Irish bred
11/17 – Placed favourites
10/17 – Came from the top three in the betting
10/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or shorter
7/17 – Had raced at the track before
6/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Raced at Goodwood last time out

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With 14 of the last 17 winners of this race aged 4 or 5 years-old then of the 16 runners there are several older horses that have this stat to overcome – You’re Hired, Dolphin Vista and Mr Scaramanga. 13 of the last 17 winners came from stall 9 or lower too – so WARGRAVE, IRONCLAD, PLANTADREAM, SHERPA TRAIL, YOU’RE HIRED, DATA PROTECTION, DESERT ICON, JOHNNY DRAMA and TINANDALI. With those key trends taken into account the ones I like here are IRONCLAD and DESERT ICON. The former is from the Hugo Palmer yard and has won two of his last three starts. He’s been gelded since his last run and despite this being a step up in grade gets in here with a low-weight. The drop back to 1m2f (from 1m4f) will suit too after not quite seeing out the longer trip last time. The horse also has Andrea Atzeni riding, who has ridden the winner of this race for the last two seasons. James Doyle and William Haggas team-up with Desert Icon and this one went into many a notebook by dotting up by 8 ½ lengths at HQ last time out. A 6lb penalty for that win looks fair enough and based on that last win could easily be a horse that progresses out of handicap company soon. Others to consider are Caradoc and Tinandali.

 

3:40 – Investec Oaks (Group 1) Cl1 (3yo) 1m4f ITV

18/18 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
15/18 – Horses from stall 1 that were unplaced
15/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/18 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
11/18 – Won from stall 5 or higher
11/18 – Favourites that were placed
10/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Won by the favourite (1 joint)
5/18 – Returned a double-figure price
5/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
5/18 – Irish-trained winners
4/18 – Ran in the English 1,000 Guineas
3/18 – Trained by John Gosden
2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/18 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
1/18 – Had run over 1m4f before
0/18 – Had run at the course before
7 of the last 13 favourites were unplaced
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race 7 times
Trainer John Gosden has won 3 of the last 6 runnings.
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 11.5/1
Kazzia (2002) and Minding (2016) were the last horses to win both the 1,000 Guineas and Epsom Oaks
The horse from stall 2 has been placed in 7 of the last 16 runnings

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A nice renewal of the Epsom Oaks, but one that does lack a bit of depth and does have a certainly ‘match-feel’ to it with the easy 1,000 Guineas winner – Love – and recent Royal Ascot scorer – FRANKLY DARLING – the two big players in question. Love will be looking to give the powerful Aidan O’Brien camp their eighth win in this Group One and the way she demolished a good Guineas field at HQ last month suggests she’s a very useful filly. He breeding also indicates there could be even more to come over this longer trip and I’d certainly not want to put anyone off her. However, this is still the furthest by some way that she’s gone (half a mile) and with her nearest rival – FRANKLY DARLING – being already proven over this trip when taking the Ribblesdale Stakes at Ascot last month, then at least we know there are no stamina doubts surrounding this John Gosden runner. The Gosden camp have also won 3 of the last 6 renewals of this race and just like Love, this Frankel filly also has a top-class breeding behind her. Frankie Dettori will ride and despite this being a step up in grade again, she showed an eye-catching turn-of-foot that day and so of the two big guns in the race I’m happy to stick with her. Of the rest, Ennistymon was runner-up to Frankly Darling at Ascot and can run another solid race, while the Roger Varian runner – Gold Wand landed a fair maiden at Newbury last time out and is out of the former Derby winner – Golden Horn – so is another that could have more to come on just her third outing.

 

4:15 – Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Investec) (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo) 1m½f ITV

17/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
17/17 – Had won at Listed or Group 3 class before
15/17 – Drawn in stall 4,5,6, 7 or 8
15/17 – Favourites placed
14/17 – Finished in the top three last time out
14/17 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
14/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/17 – Had won over at least a mile before
13/17 – Had won between 4-6 times before
12/17 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
10/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/17 – Aged 4 years-old
9/17 – Winning favourites
9/17 – Had raced at Epsom before
9/17 – Drawn in either stall 5 or 6
8/17 – Won last time out
6/17 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4/17 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
3/17 – Won by a Cheveley Park-owned horse
2/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/17 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/17 – Trained by Roger Charlton
Jockeys Silvestre de Sousa (2), James Doyle (3) and Frankie Dettori (3) have won 8 of the last 10 runnings
Godolphin have won 3 of the last 10 runnings

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Godolphin team have a good record in this race so their Summer Romance will be popular. However, she’s got to bounce back from a poor run in the 1,000 Guineas last time out. In her defence she fluffed the start a bit in that race and can be expected to have come on for it too. Onassis was a nice winner of the Sandringham Stakes at Royal Ascot but this is a big step up in grade and she’s rated 22lbs off the top-rated in the field – Cloak Of Spirits. That last-named horse was a cracking fifth in the G1 Coronation Stakes at Ascot last time and with this a big drop in grade must have a big chance – prior to that she was runner-up in the 1,000 Guineas at HQ too. Fooraat is unbeaten from two runs and could be anything, while Rose Of Kildare is a solid performer that can’t be discounted. But the pick here is the Frankie and Gosden runner – LOVE AND THUNDER. This 3 year-old filly is yet to race in a grade like this but won well on her return at Newbury and looks the sort to have more to come. The yard are littered with top fillies so the fact they are pitching her into this level next is a good sign what they think of her and with only two career runs can be expected to have a lot more learning and improvement in the locker.

4:55 – Investec Derby Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 (3yo) 1m4f ITV

Epsom Derby Betting Trends and Stats

17/18 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
16/18 – Raced no more than 5 times before
16/18 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
16/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
16/18 – Had won a Group race before
12/18 – Favourites that were placed
12/18 – Won from a single-figure stall
12/18 – Won last time out
12/18 – Had run over at least 1m2f before
10/18 – Had raced no more than 3 times before
9/18 – Irish-trained winners
8/18 – Had won a Group One before
6/18 – Won by the favourite
6/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won 7 in all)
5/18 – Ran in the 2,000 Guineas that season (2 winners)
4/18 – Won the Dante Stakes (York) last time out
3/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won 5 in all)
3/18 – Winners from stall 12 or higher
2/18 – Won over 1m4f before
0/18 – Run at the course before
0/18 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 13/2
10 Dante winners went onto win the Derby (Golden Horn, 2015 being the most-recent)
Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby

 Epsom Derby Trainer Stats

Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017 & 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A lot of headlines have been written about English King, who has headed the betting for the Epsom Derby since landing the Lingfield Derby Trial last month – the same race the 2019 Derby winner – Anthony Van Dyck – took before going onto glory at Epsom. Frankie Dettori has also been booked to ride this Ed Walker runner as the pocket Italian looks to land his third Epsom Derby. The form of that Lingfield Trial win looks fair too with the runner-up – Berkshire Rocco – having since run second in the Queen’s Vase to the subsequent Irish Derby winner – Santiago. The horse had 2 ¾ lengths in-hand with Berkshire Rocco and also looked to have more in the locker. With only three career runs this well-bred Camelot colt should have more to come. With 7 Epsom Derby wins, trainer Aidan O’Brien needs just one more to become the all-time most successful handler in this race so anything he runs has to be respected. He’s landed 5 of the last 8 runnings too. Of his bunch Mogul can be expected to run better than last time at Royal Ascot, when flopping as an odds-on favourite in the King Edward VII Stakes, but after a 228-day break should be sharper for it. He could also have Vatican City in the race, but if running his RUSSIAN EMPEROR (e/w) looks the most interesting. This 3 year-old won the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot last time over 1m2f having needed every inch of that trip looks the sort to be crying out for further – which he’ll get here. The top-rated horse in the race is still the 2,000 Guineas winner – Kameko – and despite having a few questions to answer regarding the trip could have the class to get home. Oisin Murphy rides and will be looking for his first win in this race, but his breeding suggests this 1m4f trip might be a bridge too far and he was only really just doing enough to last home in the Guineas over 1m last time, so and extra four furlongs might be stretching his stamina – we’ll see! Of those at the bigger prices, the William Muir team have a live chance too with PYLEDRIVER (e/w). This 3 year-old stayed on really well to win the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot last month and with all due respect to the Muir yard, if he was trained by the likes of Stoute, Gosden or O’Brien would certainly be a single-figure price based on that 2 length win! With 6 runs he’s also one of the more experienced in the field and with that last run being his first try over this 1m4f trip then there could be more in the offering. Overall, I feel the favourite – English King – is solid but with Frankie riding might not be much value on the day. Kameko has stamina issues to answer, so I’d prefer to take a chance on the O’Brien runner Russian Emperor, who should improve for the longer trip, and also have Pyledriver onside based on his recent Ascot success – which he probably didn’t get the credit he deserved for.

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