Doncaster TV Trends and Tips: Thursday 14th Sept 2017

Doncaster horse racing tips and trends

The ITV cameras head to Doncaster racecourse this week for the 4-day St Leger Meeting – they will be covering races on Thursday, Friday and Saturday – with races spread across both ITV and ITV4.
As always, here at JUICESTORM we’ve got it all covered with all the TV race trends and stats – these should help narrow down the fields and also highlight the best profiles of horses that have done well in the races in the past.

Thursday 14th September 2017


1:50 – British Stallion Studs “Carrie Red” EBF Fillies´ Stakes (Nursery Handicap) Cl2 6f110y ITV4

14/14 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
12/14 – Carried 9-3 or less
12/14 – Placed third or better last time out
11/14 – Rated 75 or higher
10/14 – Won by a Feb or Mar-born foal
10/14 – Had won at least one race before
9/14 – Placed favourites
9/14 – Came from a double-figure stall
9/14 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
7/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Had run at Doncaster before
2/14 – Won by the Hannon team
2/14 – Won by the Richard Fahey team
2/14 – Won by the Paul Cole yard
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9.5/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: All of the last 14 winners of this Nursery raced in the last 6 weeks, but that applies to all six runners this year, but with 12 of the last 14 winning with 9-3 or less then the well-fancied The Mums will have this to overcome with 9-7 on her back. This 2 year-old was a good winner last time out and with it also being a Frankie Dettori/John Gosden horse then we can expect plenty of support for her. The Mums will appreciate the soft ground (won on it last time), but only just got home last time and being an April-born filly she also falls down on these key trend. Clubbable represents the Richard Fahey yard that have a fair record in this race and has some creditable placed efforts to her name, but she’s still to actually win a race and with 10 of the last 14 winners having tasted victory in the past that would be a trend against her. SHE’S DIFFERENT (e/w) is the only other last-time-out winner in the field after winning well at Hamilton in the soft last time and looks the most interesting. This is a big step up in class but she did it well that day and is only 5lbs higher. She gets weight all-round though and now she’s got the winning thread looks sure to go well. Silver Starlight has done well this season, but has had a busy campaign for a young horse and despite running well (6th) in a big field last time might just be vulnerable to a lesser exposed runner. Poetic Steps has winning form on soft, but has run poorly the last twice so would need to bounce back, while the same applies to the Karl Burke-trained Ellthea. But I’ll stick with She’s Different, to cope with the step up in class, with the consistent CLUBBABLE looking a live threat too.

2.25 – William Hill May Hill Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m ITV4

14/15 – Had 1 or 2 previous career wins
13/15 – Had won over 7f before
13/15 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
13/15 – Won by a Feb, Mar or April foal
10/15 – Won last time out
9/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
7/15 – Drawn in stalls 1 or 2
5/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
2/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/15 – Ridden by Jimmy Fortune
2/15 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/15 – Trained by John Gosden
9 of the last 11 winners returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: We can expect the Mark Johnston-trained Nyaleti to blast out the gates, like she’s been doing in past races, but with this being her first try over a mile she’ll need to keep a bit more in the tank if she’s to get home. She was a fair 3 ¾ length 6th in a Group One over in France last time out, but before that won easily over 6f in a Group Three at Ascot so is well worth a crack at the trip and breeding suggests that too. The powerful Aidan O’Brien camp send over Sizzling and after a string of placed efforts finally got off the mark last time when winning at Tipperary. That came in soft ground over 7 ½ furlongs so conditions look ideal here and with Ryan Moore riding she’s sure to be popular. Laurens is a past course winner after winning on debut here back in July and followed that up with a close second over in France in a Group Three. She’s up to a mile for the first time here, but that looks sure to suit and has also gone well with a bit of cut underfoot. However, the Richard Hannon yard have won well in this race in the past and with two decent chances again I’d prefer to couple their entries up. BILLESDON BROOK is yet to finish out of the first three from her seven starts and after to cheeky wins at Goodwood could still have more to come. She likes to be held up and come with a late run so this step up from 7f to 1m looks a good move by connections and with winning form in soft too then conditions look perfect. Their other runner is TAJAANUS and looks to have a similar chance after recent wins at Sandown and Newmarket. She’s another that is stepping up in trip from 7f to a mile, but with only four career runs there should be more to come. She’s had a month off so will be fresher than most and the champion jockey – Jim Crowley – rides.

3:00 – DFS Park Hill Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m6f132y ITV4

12/14 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/14 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/14 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
10/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/14 – Placed favourites
9/14 – Won no more than 4 times before
8/14 – Previous Group winners
8/14 – Had run at Doncaster before
6/14 – Had won over at least 1m6f before
6/14 – Irish bred
5/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – Won the Lilly Langtry (Goodwood) that season
4/14 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With 10 runners heading to post, this year’s Park Hill renewal looks a competitive affair with seven of the entries rated in the 100’s. Alyssa is the only proven distance winner in the field and after a decent third last time out at Sandown enters calculations. But her best form to date has come on quicker ground so conditions would be a worry. 12 of the last 14 winners were aged 3 or 4 years-old so that’s a negative for last season’s Cesarewitch winner Sweet Selection (5) and Groovejet (6). Despite being run over this 1m6f trip it’s interesting that 10 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 6 or lower, while 11 of the last 14 had run in the last 6 weeks. The Stoute team have also done well in the race so their DUBKA catches the eye, especially with Ryan Moore booked to ride. Yes, draw 10 is not ideal, but the softer ground will be and over this 1m6f trip can overcome that stall. She was down the field in the Ebor last time out, but her last two runs with give underfoot have seen her run well (2nd both times) so I fully expect a better showing than last time – barring the draw trend she ticks a lot of the other main stats and is a proven course winner here. Of the rest, Godolphin’s Natural Scenery is the highest-rated in the field so based on that is the one to beat and should not be far away under Jim Crowley, but Dubka and Melodic Motion were both ahead of her two runs ago at Goodwood. The Irish challenge comes from Wild Irish Rose and Detailed – of the two the last-named heads here in-form but has a fair bit to find at the ratings, so Wild Irish Rose would be the better of the Irish raiders. Being a 3 year-old she gets 10lbs from the older horses so that’s a big help, and wasn’t disgraced when third last time out at Cork. Melodic Motion has already had a decent season with three wins, plus she’s another that gets a handy 10lbs from the older horses being a 3 year-old. She is closely-matched with Dubka on her last run though when third in the Lillie Langtry, which often a good guide for this, but with the Stoute horse giving her weight that day too then we’ll stick with DUBKA here with Moore set to make the difference in the saddle.

3:35 – Weatherbys Racing Bank £300,000 2-Y-O Stakes Cl2 6f110y ITV4

12/13 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
9/13 – Finished 5th or better last time out
10/13 – Yet to win over 7f
10/13 – Won between 1-2 times
10/13 – Won from a double-figure stall
9/13 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
7/13 – Placed favourites
6/13 – Foaled in Jan or Feb
6/13 – Raced at York last time out
4/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Trained by Richard Fahey (including 2 or the last 3 runnings)
2/13 – Had raced at Doncaster before
2/13 – Trained by Jeremy Noseda
2/13 – Trained by Brian Meehan
2/13 – Ridden by Franny Norton
2/13 – Won by a filly
1/13 – Irish-trained winners
1/13 – Placed horses from stall 1 (third 2009)
8 of the last 10 winners carried 8-12 or less
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 18/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A monster pot up for grabs here for these 2 year-olds, but on what we’ve seen so far it might pay to keep it simple and just stick with the yards that have done well in the race in the past. The Fahey camp has landed two of the last three and this year have loads of entries again. International Man, Zap, Cosa Nostra, Requinto Dawn and Jedi Master are five of theirs, but their best chance looks to be GREAT PROSPECTOR. This 2 year-old is rated at 105, which is the highest in the field, and was just a neck behind Tangled last time at York. Yes, that horse also lines-up here and is big danger, but being the slightly less exposed of the pair I’ll take Great Prospector to gain his revenge here. Ryan Moore catches the eye riding for Joseph O’Brien on Sebastiano Ricci, while the Hugo Palmer-trained Alba Power is another that has run some good races recently and should not be far away. But of those at a bigger price the Brian Meehan-trained FARAASAH (e/w) might be worth a small interest. Yes, he’s done nothing to date after two runs, but the softer ground might help and despite flopping last time was sent off as favourite that day and ran well on debut to be a close second.

 

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