Doncaster TV Trends and Tips: Thursday 10th Sept 2020

Doncaster horse racing tips and trends

The ITV cameras head to Doncaster racecourse this week for the 4-day St Leger Meeting – they will be covering races on Thursday, Friday and Saturday – with races spread across both ITV and ITV3.

As always, here at JUICESTORM we’ve got it all covered with all the TV race trends and stats – these should help narrow down the fields and also highlight the best profiles of horses that have done well in the races in the past.

 

Thursday 10th September 2020


1:40 –
British Stallion Studs “Carrie Red” EBF Fillies´ Stakes (Nursery Handicap) Cl2 6f110y ITV3

17/17 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
15/17 – Carried 9-3 or less
14/17 – Placed third or better last time out
14/17 – Rated 74 or higher
13/17 – Had won at least one race before
12/17 – Won by a Feb or Mar-born foal
11/17 – Placed favourites
11/17 – Had won over 6f or 7f before
10/17 – Came from a double-figure stall
7/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Had run at Doncaster before
2/17 – Won by the Hannon team
2/17 – Won by the Richard Fahey team
2/17 – Won by the Paul Cole yard

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Golden Melody was way too free last time out at Haydock and in soft ground and over the longer trip of 7f, was never going to get home. She’s had 2 months to get over that run and with the Haggas yard having a 29% record with their 2 year-olds at the track then she is worth a second glance. The Charlie Appleby yard (23%) and the Ralph Beckett (28%) camp also have fine records with their juveniles at the track so their runners – Sky Angel and MEU AMOR (e/w) – are others to note. The later was beaten into fourth behind another runner – Ventura Diamond on debut, but has since won at Pontefract and looks to be going the right way. The Hannon yard have a good record in the race so their runners should be respected – they run Thanks You Next and Ma Cherie Amour and of the two the first-named has decent form to her name and is the top-rated in the field. But, as a result, also has a lot of weight to carry (9-7). Recent winners Spright and Credible are others to consider, but having already won over this track, then the Roger Varian runner – NAZUNA – is the other pick. She won narrowly by a neck, but that came over 7f so the drop back slightly in trip looks a plus and with only two career runs looks the sort to have more in the locker.

 

2.10bet365 May Hill Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m ITV3

17/18 – Had 1 or 2 previous career wins
15/18 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
16/18 – Had won over 7f before
16/18 – Won by a Feb, Mar or April foal
11/18 – Won last time out
10/18 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
9/18 – Drawn in stalls 1 or 2
6/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
2/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/18 – Trained by John Gosden
10 of the last 14 winners returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has only won the race once (2018)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Frankie and John Gosden team-up here with INDIGO GIRL and it was hard to fault her debut win at Yarmouth and is clearly a horse with ability and she also holds a Group One entry in the Fillies’ Mile at HQ next month. She proven with a bit of cut underfoot too should the track get any more rain and the Gosden yard have a respectable 20% record with their 2 year-olds at the course. The Haggas yard also do well here with their juveniles and run proven CD winner – Lilac Road – who has to enter the mix too, while the fact the Joseph O’Brien yard are sending over Ubuntu from Ireland should be noted in the betting. Dubai Fountain is another course winner and one of the more experienced youngsters in the field with five runs (2 wins), while STAR OF EMARAATY (e/w) can’t be ignored either after winning the G3 Sweet Solera Stakes at HQ last time out. Yes, that was a surprise 66/1 win, but she’s clearly an improving filly and might be underestimated. However, the one the selections should be fearing most is the Roger Varian runner – Zabeel Queen – who was very impressive on debut at Ascot in July. She’s had plenty of time to get over that win and with soe fancy G1 entries on the horizon is clearly held in high regard by connections.

 

2.40 – Weatherbys Racing Bank £300,000 2-Y-O Stakes Cl2 6f110y ITV3

15/16 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
12/16 – Finished 5th or better last time out
12/16 – Yet to win over 7f
11/16 – Won between 1-2 times
11/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/16 – Won from a double-figure stall
8/16 – Raced at York last time out
8/16 – Foaled in Jan or Feb
7/16 – Placed favourites
4/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Richard Fahey (including 2 or the last 6 runnings)
2/16 – Had raced at Doncaster before
2/16 – Trained by Brian Meehan
2/16 – Ridden by Franny Norton
2/16 – Won by a filly
2/16 – Trained by Kevin Ryan (2 of last 7)
2/16 – Placed horses from stall 1 (third 2009)
1/16 – Irish-trained winners
11 of the last 13 winners carried 8-12 or less in weight

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Trainer Richard Fahey has won three of the last 10 runnings of this race so his Bankrolled should be noted in the betting, while the same can be said for the Kevin Ryan camp, who have won two of the last 7 renewals – they look to have three decent chances too, with Digital, Cairn Island and course winner Uncle Jumbo. Yazaman is the clear one to beat though on the ratings and has run well in some top Group races this season, but my only worry would be the fact he’s only won once and that came on debut at Yarmouth over 5f – he’s a big player but no real value to me. With that in mind, it’s worth noting he Andrew Balding yard won this race 12 months ago too, so their IMPERIAL FORCE would be a player if you can ignore his last run and go on his third at Ascot in the Norfolk Stakes back in June. He ticks a lot of the main trends, like weight and draw and could do better now slightly upped in trip. Of the rest, the Roger Varian pair of Line Of Departure and the Frankie-ridden Dark Lion have solid to form to make them players too. Digital and Titan Rock are others to note, but a chance is also taken on the Fahey runner – BANKROLLED (e/w). She found the softer ground against her last time in Ireland so the better conditions here will help. She got a Listed race entry in the future but also gets in here with just 8-1 to carry and that means she gets a very big weight allowance from the likes of Yazaman, Dark Lion and Cairn Island – (15lbs).

 

3.15 – bet365 Park Hill Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m6f132y ITV3

15/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
14/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
12/17 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
12/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/17 – Won no more than 4 times before
11/17 – Placed favourites
10/17 – Previous Group winners
9/17 – Had run at Doncaster before
8/17 – Had won over at least 1m6f before
7/17 – Irish bred
6/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Won the Lilly Langtry (Goodwood) that season
5/17 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/17 – Trained by John Gosden
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won this race

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Dubious Affair has made giant strides this season and is the only CD winner in the field, but on these terms and now into a Group Two, she’d need another step forward here. Frankie Dettori and Aidan O’Brien team up with Snow, but this 3 year-old needs to bounce back from two average runs at the Curragh and Goodwood last time out. Vivionn is often on the premises and is a proven course winner – she hails from the Stoute yard that have won this race before. Having run the useful Love to 5 lengths in the Yorkshire Oaks last time out, then Alpinista sets the standard though. She’s improved a lot this season and gets a handy age weight allowance, but any rain would be a negative and she’s yet to race this far. Pista, from the Joseph O’Brien yard, and Monica Sheriff have to be noted in the betting, but the call is BELIEVE IN LOVE. This 3 year-old also gets the weight allowance for her age, but heads here in great form – having won her last three! Yes, this is a big step up in grade, but she’s at least won over near enough this trip (1m6f) and could not have been more impressive last time out at Newmarket – winning by 10 lengths.

 

3.45 – Price Promise At bet365 Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 7f ITV3

9/10 – Ran in the last 8 weeks
9/10 – Won over 6f or 7f
9/10 – Didn’t win last time out
8/10 – Drawn 7 or less
8/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
8/10 – Won between 1-2 times
8/10 – Carried 8-11 or more
7/10 – Rated 86-92
7/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
5/10 – Drawn 3 or less
5/10 – Won over 7f before
5/10 – Unplaced favourites
5/10 – Irish bred
4/10 – Had run at Doncaster before
3/10 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
2/10 – Trained by Roger Varian
2/10 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With 8 of the last 10 winners drawn in stalls 7 or less then this is a plus for HAPPY BERE, BROUGHTONS GOLD, JUMAIRA BAY, LEXINGTON DASH, HAQEEQY, PERSUASIAN and NATIONAL LEAGUE. Of that bunch it’s the Roger Varian runner that makes the most appeal – JUMAIRA BAY. The yard have a decent 24% record with their 3 year-olds at the track, while they’ve also won this race twice in the last three years. This 3 year-old also heads into the race off the back of a nice maiden win at Chepstow and with that confidence under his belt could be ready to kick-on now. David Egan rides and the first-time cheekpieces are also an interesting addition. Others to consider are Broughtons Gold, who has won four of his last five, while Eastern World, Mister Snowden and Cold Front are others that have shown decent form. But with Frankie booked to ride the Charles Hills runner PERSUASION (e/w) this stands out. He’s on much calmer waters here after running down the field in the G1 2,000 Guineas last time out and should also be more at home back in trip to 7f. Last season he ran second to the useful Wichita in the G3 Tattersalls Stakes and now into a handicap would be very interesting if running near that level here. Finally, a small place play on the Richard Fahey NATIONAL TREASURE (e/w) is the final call, mainly due the yard having a good recent record in the race and did have an excuse last time out when not getting the best of runs a few furlongs out.

 

 

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