Doncaster TV Trends and Tips: Saturday 12th Sept 2020

Doncaster Horse Racing Tips and Trends

The ITV cameras head to Doncaster racecourse this week for the 4-day St Leger Meeting – they will be covering races on Thursday, Friday and Saturday – with races spread across both ITV and ITV4.

As always, here at JUICESTORM we’ve got it all covered with all the TV race trends and stats – these should help narrow down the fields and also highlight the best profiles of horses that have done well in the races in the past.

It’s St Leger Day at the track this Saturday – the final English Classic of the season. Did you know, 11 of the last 18 St Leger winners were drawn in stalls 5 or higher?

 

Saturday 12th September 2020

 

1.50 – bet365 Champagne Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (2yo) 7f ITV

18/19 – Returned  8/1 or shorter in the betting
17/19 – Won 1 or 2 times previously
16/19 – Favourites placed
15/19 – Had won over 7f before
15/19 – Won by a Feb or March foal
15/19 – Finished third or better last time out
12/19 – Won last time out
11/19 – Run at Sandown, Newbury, York or t­­he Curragh last time out
9/19 – Raced 3 or more times that season
9/19 – Winning favourites
4/19 – Won by Godolphin
4/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
4/19 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard
2/19 – Won by the Mark Johnston yard
2/19 – Won by the Charlie Appleby yard
2/19 – Won by the Saeed Bin Suroor yard
2/19 – Winners from stall 1

Note: 2005 renewal was a dead-heat

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Richard Hannon yard have a good record in this race – including a win 12 months ago – so their Chindit is sure to be popular – he’s 2-from-2 to date and is also a proven CD winner here. Devious Company should be going close too with the step back up to 7f a big plus after getting a bit outpaced over 6f the last twice. The Joseph O’Brien runner – State Of Rest – has some solid form in Ireland too and looks a player, while Saint Lawrence and Mujbar were nice winners last time out and with a bit of improvement ca have a say. But the call is the Owen Burrows runner – ALBASHEER – who was hugely impressive when winning on debut over this course and distance by 6 ½ lengths. Yes, this is a step up in grade, but he’s got some fancy G1 entries ahead so is clearly held in some regard and it’s interesting jockey Jim Crowley prefers him to the other Maktoum runner in the field – Mujbar. The Burrows yard are also 2 from 6 with their 2 year-olds at the track (33%).

 

2.25 – bet365 Portland Handicap Cl2 5f140y ITV3

17/18 – Carried 8-12 or more
15/18 – Won over 6f before
15/18 – Had run 5 or more times that season
15/18 – Came from a double-figure stall
14/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
13/18 – Winner rated between 95 and 101
13/18 – Run at Doncaster previously
12/18 – Won 4 or more times in their career
12/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/18 – Unplaced Favourites
9/18 – Placed in their last race
8/18 – Winners aged 5 years-old (inc 8 of last 12 years)
7/18 – Raced in that season’s Great St Wilfrid (Ripon)
4/18 – Raced at Ripon last time out
4/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Won by the Kevin Ryan yard
3/18 – Won last time out
2/18 – Ridden by William Buick
A Momentofmadness won the race in 2018 and was 2nd in 2019

JUICESTORM VERDICT: I’m going to stick with a horse that seems to love this race – A MOMENTOFMADNESS (e/w). This Charles Hills runner won this prize in 2018 and was a close second 12 months ago too. He tries again but is rated 4lbs lower than last year and 8lbs lower than his win in 2018. A recent third at Goodwood was also a sign he’s running into form and has also been dropped 2lbs for that effort. Draw 10 will give him options in the middle of the pack (was drawn 13 last year) and 8-12 gives him a nice racing weight – Dane O’Neill rides. Of the rest, with 17 of the last 18 winners carrying 8-12 or more, then the bottom nine on the card (from Orvar down) have this as a negative. 15 of the last 18 winners also came from a double-figure draw, so that will help rule out 9 of the 22 runners. Jawwaal, Wentworth Falls, Justanotherbottle, Orvar and Saluti are past course winners at the track so have that as a plus, while the Kevin Ryan yard have often done well in the race – they run Justanotherbottle. Soldier’s Minute, Barbill and Koncheck are others that all head here with good recent runs under their belts, but the other pick is the David O’Meara-trained ARECIBO (e/w).  He ticks a lot of the main trends, like draw and weight, while he ran okay last time when second at Sandown on ground that would have been way too soft for him. He’s been dropped a pound for that and prior to that effort was a close fourth in a similar big-field handicap at York. He was also fourth in this race 12 months ago off a mark of 100, but gets in here with a rating of 93, so based on that looks to have leading claims.

 

3.00 – bet365 Park Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV3

15/17 – Won 3 or more times before
14/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
14/17 – Run 3 or more times that season
14/17 – Won a Group race previously
14/17 – Returned  7/1 or shorter
13/17 – Won over 7f before
13/17 – Aged 4 or older
12/17 – Placed favourites
11/17 – Unplaced in their most recent race
10/17 – Run at either Goodwood (5), Newbury (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
8/17 – Placed horses from stall 1
7/17 – Had run at Doncaster before
4/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Won by a previous winner of the race
3 Irish-trained winners in the last 11 runnings

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The 8 year-old Limato won this race back in 2015 and despite his advancing years has held his form well and heads here having won a G3 at Newmarket in impressive fashion – there could be more to come and I think he’ll go well, but I’d just be worried that all his best runs in recent years have been at G3 level – might be more of an place play. Molatham and Breathtaking Look are the other CD winners in the field, but both have a small bit to find on the ratings. One Master, Shine So Bright and Marie’s Diamond are others to note and are all closely-matched on the ratings, but it might be worth giving another chance to the Aidan O’Brien runner – WICHITA. This 3 year-old is the clear top-rated in the field but being a 3 year-old gets a handy 4lbs from the likes of Limato and Shine So Bright. He was a close second in the 2,000 Guineas at HQ in June and ran the classy Palace Pier close at Royal Ascot in the G1 St James’s Palace Stakes. He probably found the 6 ½ furlongs a bit sharp last time in France and the time before at Goodwood had excuses as finished lame and also lost a shoe in the race. Frankie Dettori rides and has ridden him three times in the past too.

 

3.35 – Pertemps St Leger Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m6f132y ITV3

16/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
15/18 – Placed favourites
15/18 – Had 2 or 3 previous career wins
15/18 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
14/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Had won a Group race before
13/18 – Had 4 or 5 previous runs that season
13/18 – Had won over at least 1m3f before
12/18 – Winning distance of 1 length or more
11/18 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
11/18 – Had never raced over 1m6f or further before
10/18 – Officially rated 109 to 115
10/18 – Won last time out
8/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
8/18 – Ran in the Great Voltigeur last time out (3 won it)
5/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/18 – Trained by John Gosden
4/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (5 wins in total)
3/18 – Ran in the Gordon Stakes last time out (2 won it)
3/18 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse (6 wins in total)
2/18 – Ridden by William Buick
2/18 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/18 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/18 – Winners from stall 1
Godolphin have won the race 6 times
Aidan O’Brien has trained 6 winners of the race
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 7/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A race that’s been dominated by the John Gosden and Aidan O’Brien yards in recent times – they’ve won 9 of the last 18 runnings between them. However, we’ve no Gosden entries this year. O’Brien has several entered though and that this stage his Santiago (if running) looks their main hope. He landed the Irish Derby back in June and wasn’t disgraced when 2 ¼ lengths third to Stradivarius in the Goodwood Cup last time out. Prior to those runs he won well over this trip at Ascot and really this looks his ideal distance – with 2m probably stretching him and 1m4f a bit sharp – if running he’d be a big player. Epsom Derby fifth English King could be interesting now upped in trip, while Irish handler, Joseph O’Brien sends over his Galileo Chrome, who has won his last three in impressive fashion and could be anything. Pyledriver would be a big winner for the William Muir yard and he certainly wasn’t stopping when winning the Great Voltigeur at York last time out over 1m4f– that race is often a good guide to this, with 8 of the last 18 St Leger winners having run in that race. But the one I’m going to side with is HUKUM. This Owen Burrows runner is one of the lesser exposed runners in the field (4 runs), but was an easy winner of the Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury last time out over 1m 5 1/2f, so we know he stays the trip well. Jim Crowley, who has ridden him in all four of his career races, continues in the saddle. Of the rest, a small saver is also advised on the Mark Johnston-trained SUBJECTIVIST (e/w). This 3 year-old bolted-up in the March Stakes last time out and is proven over this trip. He’s one of the more experienced in the field (13 runs) and despite having 8 lengths to find with Pyledriver based on their Great Voltigeur run in August, I feel the longer trip will suit him better and can get a lot closer this time.

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