It’s DAY TWO of the Chester May Meeting this Thursday (9th May 2019) so we’ve more LIVE ITV racing to take in. The Dee Stakes and the Group Three Ormonde Stakes take centre stage today – did you know 16 of the last 17 Ormonde Stakes winners returned 7/2 or shorter? Suggesting this is a race punters tend to get right!
So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!
CHESTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RUK)
1.50 – Gateley PLC Handicap Cl2 5f ITV
11/11 – Won from stall 7 or lower
11/11 – Had won over 5f before
11/11 – Had won between 2-6 times before
11/11 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/11 – Came from stall 5 or lower
8/11 – Carried 8-10 or less in weight
8/11 – Had raced at Chester before
8/11 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
8/11 – Finished in the top 7 last time out
7/11 – Officially rated between 87-90
5/11 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
5/11 – Winning favourites
4/11 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
2/11 – Winners from stall 1
9 of the last 10 winners came between stalls 1-4
A Momentofmadness won the race in 2018
JUICESTORM VERDICT: We start day two with another 5f race so a low draw over this trip is always an advantage. In the last 11 years we’ve seen 9 winners from stalls 5 or lower so horses Copper Knight (1), Mokaatil (2), Fool For You (3), Merhoob (4) and Confessional (5) might be the ones to focus on. 9 of the last 11 winners were also aged 4 or 5 years-old so of the five already mentioned Merhoob, who is 7, and Confessional, who is 12 now and also won this race in 2012, have this stat to overcome. So, of the three left – Copper Knight – will be popular and is a proven CD winner but with 9-7 in weight he’s got his fair share of a burden to carry and is yet to win off a mark this high. Therefore, MOKAATIL and FOOL FOR YOU are the ones I’ll be playing here. Mokaatil was a fair third at Musselburgh last time out in a race Copper Knight was back in fourth. Draw 2 is ideal but he generally likes to be held up so hopefully he can still save ground on the inner and then when the gaps come in the home straight, he can pounce. Fool For You hails from the Richard Fahey yard that won this in 2015 and ran well first time out last season so the 229 day break is fine. A low weight and draw 3 is ideal too. Spoof, Reflektor and Gold Filigree are others to note as all three are also winners over this course and distance – of that trio, the Charles Hills-trained Spoof might be best with the yard having also won this race 12 months ago, but draw 10 is not ideal.
2.25 – Homeserve Dee Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f75y ITV
16/17 – Had not run at Chester before
15/17 – Yet to win over this trip before
14/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Favourites finished in the frame
14/17 – Came from stall 3 or higher
11/17 – Failed to win another race after taking this
10/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/17 – Had a previous run that season
8/17 – Winners that went onto run in the Epsom Derby
7/17 – Won by the favourite
7/17 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
6/17 – Won their previous race
0/17 – Winners from stall 1
Only Kris Kin in 2003 went onto win this and then the Epsom Derby in the last 16 years
JUICESTORM VERDICT: Several promising sorts here but it’s hard to get away from the Aidan O’Brien-trained CIRCUS MAXIMUS, with Ryan Moore riding. This 3 year-old was only a length fourth to the recent 2,000 Guineas winner – Magna Grecia – in the Vertem Futurity Trophy at Doncaster last season and that form has since been given a big boost. This drop into Listed company will make life easier and pedigree suggests the step up to 1m2f will also bring out more improvement. 14 of the last 17 winners came from stalls 3 or higher, so the 5 berth looks ideal too. O’Brien also runs Mohawk, who is actually the top-rated in the field and the yard are no strangers to winning these big races with their second strings. The main danger to the pick though looks to be Fox Chairman for the Andrew Balding yard. This 3 year-old has only had one run though and even though it was an impressive 4 length win, this is a step up in trip and grade, while his lack of experience might get found out around the tight turns of the Roodee. Of the rest, Mohtarrif, Dark Jedi, Allmankind and LIVING LEGEND (e/w) make up the field, with the last-named looking the most interesting. This Mark Johnston runner has won his last two races in gutsy fashion and despite more required in this higher grade is at least proven over the trip and that assured stamina will surely be used.
3.00 – Deepbridge Capital Handicap Cl2 7f122y ITV
16/17 – Hadn’t raced at Chester before
15/17 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Had a previous run that season
13/17 – Came between stalls 2-7
11/17 – Finished third or better last time out
10/17 – Carried 9-0 or less
10/17 – Placed favourites
6/17 – Winning favourites (or joint)
5/17 – Ran at Newbury last time out
5/17 – Placed horses from stall 1
2/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/17 – Trained by Andrew Balding
2/17 – Winners from stall 1
JUICESTORM VERDICT: Run over 7 ½ furlongs this race is another that’s built-up a fair trends stat in recent years – 13 of the last 17 winners came between stalls 2 and 7. With this in mind, horses Lola’s Theme, Lincoln Park, Drogon, Metatron, Forseti and Pacino will be trying to uphold this stat. The Tom Dascombe yard, who love to have winners at this meeting, are mob-handed too – with Drogon, Lola’s Theme, Barristan The Bold and Metatron running – jockey booking suggest Metatron, with Richard Kingscote, riding might be their main hope. Andrew Balding has a fair record in this race (wins in 2013 and 2016) and has Spirit Warning and FORSETI (e/w) running. Both look to have decent chances, but Forseti looks to have the better draw in 6 and also heads here off a good win back in January. He gets in with just 8-10 in weight too and ticks most of the main trends – David Probert rides. The consistent King Of Tonga can go well too and course winner – Sparklealot – will have improved for it’s recent fifth. However, the other call is PACINO (e/w). This Richard Fahey runner was a good winner at Beverley last time out and the 5lb hike is offset by the jockey’s claim so gets in here off the same rating. Draw 7 looks fine and we all know owner Dr Marwan Koukash loves having winners at his beloved Chester.
3.35 – Boodles Diamond Ormonde Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m5f89y ITV
16/17 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
12/17 – Won by either a 4 or 5 year-old
12/17 – Didn’t win their previous race
11/17 – Had a previous run that season
10/17 – Finished in the top three last time out
9/17 – Won by the favourite
8/17 – Had run before at Chester
5/17 – Ran in the John Porter (Newbury) last time out
4/17 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
4/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/17 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute (won it 6 times in all)
JUICESTORM VERDICT: Another race the powerful Aidan O’Brien yard love to target at this meeting so their Cypress Creek and Kew Gardens will be popular. The last-named will be ridden by Ryan Moore, who has won this race four times since 2010 too, and dropping into a Group Three looks the one to beat. He was 7th in the Arc – beaten just 4 lengths – back in October and that was after landing the St Leger at Doncaster the month before. He’s the class act in the race but it might not be easy giving 7lbs away to last year’s Chester Cup winner – MAGIC CIRCLE. This 7 year-old is rated just 4lbs off Kew Gardens, but gets 7lbs so is weighted to go well. We know he stays further and we also know the track suits. He was last seen running okay in the Melbourne Cup (16th of 24) but has been given plenty of time to get over that race. He won the Chester Cup off a 209 day break too so the 184 absence isn’t a worry either. Morando looks the only other one with a chance from the Andrew Balding yard. He’s a previous course winner over 7 ½ furlongs in 2016 but has risen up the ranks over the last few seasons, including winning the Group Three St Simon Stakes last time out, to certainly make a claim here.
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