Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends & Tips: Sunday 19th Nov 2017

Cheltenham Horse racing tips and trends

Another big day ahead for the ITV racing team this Sunday as they take in four races from Cheltenham racecourse on the final day of their three-day November Meeting.

Like all big race days here at JUICESTORM we are on hand with all the LIVE ITV race trends, stats and tips.

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

 

1.50 – Racing Post Arkle Trophy Trial Novices´ Chase (Registered as The November Novices´ Chase) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

14/15 – Placed in the top three in their last race
13/15 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
13/15 – Favourites placed
13/15 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
13/15 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
13/15 – Priced 7/2 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Raced (hurdles or fences) at Cheltenham previously
12/15 – Raced just once previously over fences
9/15 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
9/15 – Ran in the Arkle Chase at the Festival later that season (1 won, Azertyuiop, 2002)
9/15 – Won their latest race
9/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (inc last 6 of last 9 years)
9/15 – Favourites that won
9/15 – Won previously over fences
7/15 – Won by a French bred
4/15 – Won by Irish bred
4/15 – Ridden by jockey Ruby Walsh
3/15 – Won by a German bred
3/15 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/15 – Fell in the Arkle Chase later that season
3/15 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 3/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Only four runners but a decent race in prospect with all of the runners setting a decent standard and having a case. The Philip Hobbs team have won two of the last three runnings and they will be trying to improve that stat with the 6 year-old Ozzie The Oscar. This 140-rated hurdler, who don’t forget was third in the County Hurdle last season, made a good transition to fences last time out with a smooth win at Warwick and there should be more to come. This, however, looks a lot harder and although a good run is expected he did make the odd running error last time which he might not be allowed to get away with at Cheltenham. Henderson’s River Wylde is another high-class hurdler, who was third in the Supreme Novices’ here in March, to make a successful start over fences. If his jumping holds out then looks a big player too. The Paul Nicholls yard have won this race a staggering 6 times in the last 9 years though and with Capitaine, who has won twice already over fences, they have a massive chance to add to that. This talented grey won with any amount in-hand the last two days and especially last time out jumped very well. But I’d just be a tad concerned this is his first run at the track and he did jump a bit right on his chase debut, which is not ideal around here. So this could be left to Paul Nicholls’ former assistant – Dan Skelton – to spoil the party. He runs last year’s Greatwood Hurdle winner – NORTH HILL HARVEY – and I was really taken by his recent win here over course and distance. He’s a gutsy horse so getting into a battle up the hill is not an issue, but with three wins at the track then, unlike the others, we’ll have no concerns about the course, or the uphill finish. Yes, he’s got to give 3lbs away to the others, but he’s a fast improving horse that ticks a lot of boxes.

2.25 – Shloer Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m ITV

8 previous runnings
7/8 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
7/8 – Officially rated 150+
6/8 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
6/8 – Went onto run in the Champion Chase (1 winner, Sprinter Sacre 2015)
6/8 – Won on seasonal reappearance
6/8 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
6/8 – Aged 7 or older
6/8 – Failed to win last time out
6/8 – Favourites that finished 1st or 2nd
5/8 – Carried 11-0 to win
5/8 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
4/8 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/8 – German bred
3/8 – Raced at Aintree last time out
3/8 – Favourites that won
Fox Norton won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 4/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A cracking renewal of this race that gives us a chance to see the first two home in last season’s Queen Mother Champion Chase – Special Tiara and FOX NORTON – go head-to-head again. There was only a head between the two that day last March and there might not be a lot in it again. However, at 10 years-old Special Tiara is not getting any younger and the younger legs of Fox Norton, who is still only 7 years-old, gets the nod. This Colin Tizzard runner has also won first time out for the last two seasons so clearly goes well fresh, plus after that Champion Chase second progressed to land the Melling Chase and Punchestown Champion Chase to underline he’s still on the up. Of the rest, the consistent Cloudy Dream can make his presence felt and is yet to finish out of the top two from his 8 chase starts, but with 10lbs to find on the official ratings with Fox Norton then his task is a tough one.

3.00 – Unibet Greatwood Hurdle (A Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV

14/15 – Had won a 2m1f (or further) hurdles race before
13/15 – Had won no more than 4 times before over hurdles
12/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/15 – Officially rated 140 or higher
10/15 – Had run 6 or less times over hurdles
10/15 – Had a recent run (within the last 6 weeks)
10/15 – Finished in the top two last time out
10/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Had run at Cheltenham before
9/15 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or further
8/15 – Carried 11-4 or more
7/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Came from the first three in the betting
6/15 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
6/15 – Won their previous race
4/15 – Winners that carried 11-12
4/15 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/15 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/15 – Winning favourites
1/15 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8/1
5 of the last 8 winners contested the previous season’s Supreme Novices’ or Triumph Hurdle

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The New One being in the race and carrying 11-12 in this handicap means all of the others carry just 11-0 or less, with some decent horses right at the foot of the weights and racing of featherweights. Richard Johnson will ride THE NEW ONE (e/w) with Sam Twiston-Davies on the sidelines, but the champion jockey has won on this classy hurdler before and also has a decent record riding winners in this race. Yes, it won’t be easy giving upwards of 12lbs away to the rest, but this 163-rated hurdler is often seen in much better races and of those at the bigger prices looks decent value. However, it’s a race that has seen 12 of the last 15 winners aged 4 or 5 years-old so this age group look the ones to focus on. The Nicky Henderson-trained Jenkins has been all the rage in the week and has some high-class form to his name already. With just 10-0 he could be thrown-in at the weights and be a horse that is much better than this, but unless you are on at bigger prices in the week the value looks to have gone. Paul Nicholls took this in 2015 with Old Guard and he tries to regain his title again here off just a 4lb higher mark with the talented Bryony Frost in the saddle. He could go well at a fair price and heads here in fine fettle after a good win at Kempton last time out. London Prize is another to note and won well last weekend at Wincanton. He stays well so the stiff finish will suit and looks sure to be in the mix. Misterton, Elgin and Chesterfield are others to note, but the call here is MOHAAYED. This 5 year-old hails from the in-form Dan Skelton team and with just 10-0 to carry will feel like he’s on holiday here. He was a good winner last time at Market Rasen and despite that being back in May the reports are that’s he’s fit and raring to go ahead of this. He was a solid 7th, only beaten 3 ½ lengths in the County Hurdle here back in March so the track is fine, while at 5 years-old he fits the key age trend. Add in that the yard took this 12 months ago too then they certainly know what’s required

3.30 – Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The Sharp Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m110y ITV

13/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/13 – Won last time out
11/13 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles
11/13 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
10/13 – Favourites that finished in the top three
9/13 – Winning distance 2 lengths or less
8/13 – Carried 11-7 in weight
8/13 – Had won a NH Flat race before
7/13 – Went onto run in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (1 winner, Altior)
7/13 – Aged 5 years-old
6/13 – Irish bred
5/13 – Aged 4 years-old
4/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Won by the Pipe team
2/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/13 – Won by the Nicholls stable
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Dan Skelton’s Bedrock flopped here last time so has a bit to prove for me so is overlooked, while Better Getalong and Summerville Boy have done little wrong in recent races, but this will be harder. So that leaves us with the Nicky Henderson-trained Dame De Compagnie and SLATE HOUSE. The former hails from a yard that have won this race twice in the last 13 years and won with a lot more in-hand than the official margin on her UK debut at Uttoxeter. She gets a handy 7lbs fillies allowance here too which makes here the one to beat and looks another typical McManus horse to go well here and then head towards the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle in around 4 months. However, in SLATE HOUSE she’ll face a tough opponent and one that already has a tall reputation. This Colin Tizzard-trained 5 year-old is already a proven course and distance winner when going in here easily last month and is another that won with more to spare than the official 3 ¼ length margin. He had a few decent yardsticks in behind that day so the form looks solid and with just three career runs there should be more to come, while, more importantly, has that valuable proven track experience.

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