Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends & Tips: Sunday 17th Nov 2019

Cheltenham Horse racing tips and trends

Another big day ahead for the ITV racing team this Sunday as they take in four races from Cheltenham racecourse on the final day of their three-day November Meeting – Sunday 17th November.

Like all big race days here at JUICESTORM we are on hand with all the LIVE ITV race trends, stats and tips.

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

 

1.15 – Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Cl2 3m7f ITV

16/16 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
15/16 – Either Irish (9) or French (6) bred
14/16 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
12/16 – Winner came from the top 3 in the betting
12/16 – Returned 6/1 or shorter
12/16 – Had a recent run that season
12/16 – Won at least 5 times over fences previously
12/16 – Unplaced in their last race
11/16 – Raced over this Cross County course previously (7 won)
11/16 – Favourites placed
11/16 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
10/16 – Carried 11-5 or more in weight
10/16 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
7/16 – Trained by Enda Bolger
6/16 – Favourites that won
Josies Orders won this in 2015 and 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: FACT OF THE MATTER
DANGERS: KINGSWELL THEATRE, URGENT DE GREGAINE

 

1.50 – Racing Post #responsiblegambling Arkle Trophy Trial Novices´ Chase 2m ITV

16/17 – Placed in the top three in their last race
15/17 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
14/17 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
14/17 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
14/17 – Priced 7/2 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Raced (hurdles or fences) at Cheltenham previously
13/17 – Favourites placed
13/17 – Raced just once previously over fences
11/17 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
11/17 – Won their latest race
10/17 – Won previously over fences
10/17 – Ran in the Arkle Chase at the Festival later that season (1 won, Azertyuiop, 2002)
9/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (inc last 6 of last 11 years)
9/17 – Favourites that won
7/17 – Won by a French bred
4/17 – Won by Irish bred
4/17– Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/17 – Won by a German bred
3/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/17 – Fell in the Arkle Chase later that season

JUICESTORM VERDICT: AL DANCER
DANGER: GETAWAY TRUMP

2.25 – Shloer Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

10 previous runnings
9/10 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Officially rated 150+
8/10 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
8/10 – Won on seasonal reappearance
8/10 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
8/10 – Favourites that finished 1st or 2nd
7/10 – Aged 7 or older
7/10 – Went onto run in the Champion Chase (1 winner, Sprinter Sacre 2015)
6/10 – Failed to win last time out
5/10 – Carried 11-0 to win
5/10 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
5/10 – Favourites that won
4/10 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/10 – German bred
3/10 – Raced at Aintree last time out
Seaux Royal won the race in 2018
Fox Norton won the 2016 and 2017 runnings

JUICESTORM VERDICT: SAINT CALVADOS
DANGER: DEFI DU SEUIL

3.00 – Unibet Greatwood Hurdle (A Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV

15/17 – Had won a 2m1f (or further) hurdles race before
15/17 – Had won no more than 4 times before over hurdles
14/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/17 – Officially rated 140 or higher
12/17 – Had a recent run (within the last 6 weeks)
12/17 – Finished in the top two last time out
12/17 – Had run at Cheltenham before
11/17 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/17 – Had run 6 or less times over hurdles
9/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or further
8/17 – Carried 11-4 or more
8/17 – Placed favourites
7/17 – Came from the first three in the betting
7/17 – Won their previous race
6/17 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
4/17 – Winners that carried 11-12
4/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/17 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Winning favourites
1/17 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 9/1
6 of the last 10 winners contested the previous season’s Supreme Novices’ or Triumph Hurdle

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Another super-tough renewal of the Greatwood hurdle, but at least some nice trends to take into account. With 14 of the last 17 winners aged 4 or 5, then of the 15 runners this is a negative for the likes of Mohaayed, Countister, Harambe, Benny’s Bridge, Dame De Compagnie and Grapevine. 12 of the last 17 winners had also had a recent run (in last 6 weeks), had run at Cheltenham before too, were rated 140+ and also finished in the first two last time out. With those stats taken into account then three stand out – QUEL DESTIN, GUMBALL and MONSIUER LECOQ – all three are respected. Gumball likes to get on with things from the front and should make a bold bid again, but in this ground, it might be hard to stay there and he only just clung on last time at Ascot – he’s also up 8lbs here. Monsieur Lecoq is a fast-improving hurdler too and will love the ground. He returned with a win at Ffos Las last month in the Welsh Champion Hurdle but is another that is up in the ratings (7lbs higher). I’d also be a tad concerned that one of his only poor runs came here at Cheltenham, when down the field in the County Hurdle last March. So, that leaves QUEL DESTIN. This Paul Nicholls runner won over this CD in heavy ground last month so we know conditions will suit. He also ran well to be 5th in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle here last March and with 6 of the last 10 winners of this race having contested that Festival race, then that’s another good trend in his favour. Of the rest, Harambe, Quoi De Neuf and Humble Hero can have cases made for them, but the Hobbs yard have a fair record in the race too so their ZANZA (e/w) is also worth supporting. Dickie Johnson rides and this 5 year-old caught the eye when winning well at Newbury last time out. He escapes a penalty for that as it came in a conditional jockeys’ race, while with only 8 career runs should have more to come. He’s won on soft ground in the past too and despite not running at Cheltenham yet, he’s won three times at left-handed tracks so that’s a good sign.

 

3.30 – Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The Sharp Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m110y ITV

15/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
13/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Won last time out
12/15 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles
11/15 – Favourites that finished in the top three
11/15 – Winning distance 2 lengths or less
9/15 – Had won a NH Flat race before
8/15 – Carried 11-7 in weight
8/15 – Went onto run in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (1 winner, Altior)
8/15 – Aged 5 years-old
7/15 – Irish bred
6/15 – Aged 4 years-old
4/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/15 – Won by the Nicholls stable

JUICESTORM VERDICT: PACIFY
DANGERS: ECCO, HANG IN THERE

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