Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends & Tips: Sunday 15th Nov 2020

Cheltenham Horse racing tips and trends

Another big day ahead for the ITV racing team this Sunday as they take in four races from Cheltenham racecourse on the final day of their three-day November Meeting – Sunday 15th November.

Like all big race days here at JUICESTORM we are on hand with all the LIVE ITV race trends, stats and tips.

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

 

1.50 – Planteur At Chapel Stud Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m3 1/2f ITV

 

16/18 – Had won a 3m+ race over fences before
16/18 – Had run at Cheltenham before
15/18 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Aged 8 or younger
12/18 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
11/18  – Had won between 3 and 5 times over fences before
11/18 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
10/18 – Irish bred
9/18 – Officially rated between 135 and 146
9/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/18 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
8/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
8/18  – Ran at either Cheltenham (6) or Sandown (2) last time out
6/18 – French bred
3/18 – Won last time out
3/18 – Winning favourites (1 co)
3/18 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (2 of the last 4 years)
2/18 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/18 – Trained by Fergal O’Brien (2 of last 7 years)
West Approach (11/4 fav) won the race in 2019
Rock The Kasbah (9/1) won the race in 2018
Perfect Candidate (7/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: WEST APPROACH landed this race 12 months ago and will be a popular choice to do so again. This 10 year-old took this prize by 3 lengths last year and despite being 6lbs higher this time returned at Cheltenham last time out with a fine second to show he’s still at a good level of form. That runner-up effort also became behind the useful Frodon last time, while the extra few furlongs here will also be in his favour. The Tizzard yard have won two of the last four runnings of this race too and Harry Cobden catches the eye in the saddle. Captain Drake is another to consider after winning well at Uttoxeter last time out but is up 5lbs here and the form has taken a few knocks since. Yala Enki would be interesting if there was a lot of rain, but in recent seasons has tended to need a run after a break. So, the other of interest is CLOTH CAP, with a light weight. This Jonjo O’Neill runner was third to Frodon here last time out – therefore, has a bit of ground to find with West Approach, but that was his first run of the season and is also dropped 2lbs. He’s another that should also like the step up in trip and with only 10-4 to carry that will help.

 

2.25 – Shloer Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

10/11 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Officially rated 150+
9/11 – Won on seasonal reappearance
9/11 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
9/11 – Favourites that finished 1st or 2nd
8/11 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
8/11 – Went onto run in the Champion Chase (1 winner, Sprinter Sacre 2015)
7/11 – Failed to win last time out
7/11 – Aged 7 or older
6/11 – Favourites that won
5/11 – Carried 11-0 to win
5/11 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
4/11 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/11 – German bred
3/11 – Raced at Aintree last time out
Defi Du Seuil won the race in 2019
Sceau Royal won the race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A cracking renewal of this Grade 2 and all eyes will be on DEFI DU SEUIL who won this race 12 months ago, to see if he can bounce back to form after flopping in the Champion Chase here in March. He’s still only 7 years-old and has proved many times in the past that he can return to form when some people have written him off and I’ll take him to do so again. The Hobbs yard are starting to fire in a few winners so that’s a good sign and Richard Johnson, who has won on him before, is taking over in the saddle from the now retired Barry Geragthy. Rouge Vif is certainly going the right way and was a tidy winner here last month, but that was in a handicap so will need to progress and I’d rather have the main Irish raider – Put The Kettle On – over him after beating the Whittingham runner by just under 20 lengths when taking the Arkle Chase here in March. Put The Kettle On is now 2-from-2 at the track and this classy mare will also get 10lbs from the likes of Defi Du Seuil here which brings her right into the mix. If running Sceau Royal, who won this race in 2018, will have his supporters too after winning well twice over hurdles, but I’d probably keep up over the smaller obstacles. Riders On the Storm and Duc Des Genievres are others that would have a chance – the former was last seen falling in the Ryanair Chase here in March. He was in with a shout in that race at the time, but I’m not sure the drop back to 2m will suit.

 

3.00 – Unibet Greatwood Hurdle (A Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV

16/18 – Had won a 2m1f (or further) hurdles race before
16/18 – Had won no more than 4 times before over hurdles
14/18 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/18 – Had a recent run (within the last 6 weeks)
12/18 – Officially rated 140 or higher
12/18 – Finished in the top two last time out
12/18 – Had run at Cheltenham before
11/18 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/18 – Had run 6 or less times over hurdles
10/18 –  Winning distance – 2 lengths or further
8/18 – Carried 11-4 or more
8/18 – Placed favourites
7/18 – Came from the first three in the betting
7/18 – Won their previous race
6/18 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
4/18 – Winners that carried 11-12
4/18 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/18 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Trained by Alan King (2 of the last 3)
1/18 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 10/1
6 of the last 11 winners contested the previous season’s Supreme Novices’ or Triumph Hurdle

JUICESTORM VERDICT: We saw the Alan King-trained Harambe win this race 12 months ago but off a 6lb higher mark he’s got more to find – we’ve not had a back-to-back winner of the race going back to 1987. Horses aged 4 and 5 have the best records – winning 14 of the last 18, while 13 of the last 18 winners had had a recent run in the last 6 weeks.  The Alan King yard have also won 2 of the last 3 runnings so as well as having last year’s winner – Harambe – they also have a big chance with the 6 year—old Edwardstone. He showed a lot of promise around this time last season but was well down the field in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Festival in March and needs to bounce back. In his defence the quicker ground here will be a lot more to his liking and he’s been freshened up – he can go well. Tegerek was a tidy winner over this CD last time and looks progressive, but his is harder and he’s up 8lbs this time. Proschema has the form to go well too, but he I’d just be worried about him getting up the hill as he’s not really progressed as many thought he would. It’s hard to knock the Pipe runner – Main Fact – too after winning on the flat recently and prior to that winning five times over hurdles – in total, he’s won his last 8 races under both codes. It’s hard to know where he’s going to end up – he could keep on progressing, but does return on a 15lb higher rating over the sticks. The old-boy Ballyandy should go well at a venue he loves and will be popular with the e/w backers, but there is no hiding place with the handicapper for him these days. So, the two I like are the Paul Nicholls-trained TYYME WHITE and the Philip Hobbs runner OAKLEY (e/w), if running. The former is up 11lbs for winning at Chepstow last time out but he won by an easy 3 lengths that day and the runner-up has since franked the form by running the useful Botox Has to 4 lengths here last month. Yes, he flopped a bit in the Fred Winter here in March, but the better ground will help and at the age of just 4 years-old he’s clearly still learning the game – with another summer on his back he can be a better horse this season. Oakley was 15 lengths behind Saint Roi in the County Hurdle here in March but has run well at the track prior to that and with the Hobbs yard starting to fire in some winners he looks interesting with just 10-9 to carry.

 

3.35 – Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The Sharp Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m110y ITV

16/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
14/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
13/16 – Won last time out
13/16 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles
12/16 – Favourites that finished in the top three
11/16 – Winning distance 2 lengths or less
9/16 – Had won a NH Flat race before
9/16 – Aged 5 years-old
8/16 – Carried 11-7 in weight
8/16 – Went onto run in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (1 winner, Altior)
8/16 – Irish bred
6/16 – Aged 4 years-old
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/16 – Won by the Nicholls stable

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Some promising novice hurdlers on show here, but it’s hard to not be taken by the way the Dan Skelton-trained THIRD TIME LUCKI has been winning his races recently. He’s 2-from-2 over hurdles after easy wins at Uttoxeter and Wetherby and even though this is a step up in grade, let’s not forget he was only beaten 6 lengths in the Champion Bumper here in March so has mixed it with some good horses in the past. He’s also tasted the track before so that’s a plus and is taken to continue his winning run over the sticks. He will face stern opposition from the Paul Nicholls-trained Fidelio Vallis, who ran the useful Mrs Hyde close in a Listed Hurdle at Kempton last time, whole the Fergal O’Brien runner – Courtandbould – is yet to finish out of the first two from 5 runs over hurdles and ran the useful McFabulous to 3 lengths in the Persian War Hurdle at Chepstow last time, which is very solid form. For Pleasure is better than his last run when down the field in the same race Fidelio Vallis finished second in at Kempton – he likes to get on with it from the front and we can expect a better showing this time, but in the process might just set things up for one of the others. Of the rest, the Jessie Harrington runner Jungle Junction is interesting coming over from Ireland, while the Snowden entry – Pisgah Pike – is going the right way and can’t be totally ruled out if finding a bit more improvement.

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