Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends & Tips: Sunday 14th Nov 2021

Cheltenham Horse racing tips and trends

Another big day ahead for the ITV racing team this Sunday as they take in four races from Cheltenham racecourse on the final day of their three-day November Meeting – Sunday 14th November.

Like all big race days here at JUICESTORM we are on hand with all the LIVE ITV race trends, stats and tips.

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

 

1.45 – Jewson Click And Collect Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m3 1/2f ITV

 

17/19 – Had won a 3m+ race over fences before
17/19 – Had run at Cheltenham before
16/19 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Aged 8 or younger
12/19 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
12/19  – Had won between 3 and 5 times over fences before
12/19 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
10/19 – Irish bred
10/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/19 – Officially rated between 135 and 146
8/19 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
8/19 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
8/19  – Ran at either Cheltenham (6) or Sandown (2) last time out
7/19 – French bred
3/19 – Won last time out
3/19 – Winning favourites (1 co)
3/19 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (2 of the last 5 years)
3/19 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/19 – Trained by Fergal O’Brien (2 of last 10 years)
Ramses De Teillee (11/2) won the race in 2020
West Approach (11/4 fav) won the race in 2019
Rock The Kasbah (9/1) won the race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Kim Bailey-trained Rocky’s Treasure is starting to look very well handicapped now and returned last month with a fair second at Fakenham on his first run back from a wind op. That said, he was still beaten 24 lengths that day so still has something to prove, and this race looks harder. He was rated as high as 149 a few seasons ago though, so his mark of 136 is interesting. Irish raiders, Go Another One, who was a fair 5th here last time out, and Forza Milan enter the mix, while the Paul Nicholls-trained Yala Enki, who was last seen unseating in the Grand National, will have his supporters. This 11 year-old had another top season last term and the fact connections are still going with him is a good sign he’s enjoying himself – any rain would be a plus for his chance though. So, a chance is taken on the James Ewart-trained EMPIRE DU MAULDE. This 7 year-old has improved loads over the last 6 months or so – winning twice, including a decent Class 3 Handicap up at Kelso last time. He’s up 5lbs for that but still gets in here with a low weight of just 10-6 and gets 20lbs off the top-weight, Yala Enki. He stays well and has won on ground ranging from good up to soft so conditions will be fine. Brian Hughes rides.

 

2.20 – Shloer Chase (Registered As The Cheltenham Chase) (Grade 2) (BGG Race) Cl1 2m ITV

11/12 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
11/12 – Officially rated 150+
10/12 – Won on seasonal reappearance
10/12 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
9/12 – Favourites that finished 1st or 2nd
9/12 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
9/12 – Went onto run in the Champion Chase (2 winners, Put The Kettle On (2021), Sprinter Sacre 2015)
7/12 – Failed to win last time out
7/12 – Aged 7 or older
6/12 – Favourites that won
5/12 – Carried 11-0 to win
5/12 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
5/12 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/12 – German bred
3/12 – Raced at Aintree last time out
Put The Kettle On won the race in 2020
Defi Du Seuil won the race in 2019
Sceau Royal won the race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Just the four runners but a cracking renewal of this Grade Two Chase. Of the quartet, trainer Paul Nicholls has two – Politologue and Rouge Vif, who has been transferred to the Dicheat handler this season. The former needs little introduction being the 2020 Champion Chase winner and as long as he completes here will break through the £1m total prize money here – he’s currently just £627 shy. He returns from a wind op as last year after winning the Tingle Creek, ran below par at Ascot and Aintree. He goes well fresh and is a big player being the top-rated in the field at 167. Rouge Vif gets a handy 6lbs from his stablemate and having shown promise back in 2019/20 rather lost his way last season. A change of scenery might help and he’s a CD winner here, but I’d rather take a look at him back on the track first. Nube Negra was a close second in the Champion Chase to Put The Kettle On – beaten just ½ a length – and can go well too. He flopped at Punchestown after that race here though so does need to bounce back. With just 7 runs over fences though, there is every chance this 7 year-old will have more to come this season and can go well here. But the call is to stick with the current Champion Chaser – PUT THE KETTLE ON – who also won this race 12 months ago. She loves it here at Cheltenham – is currently 4-from-4 and being a mare gets a handy 7lbs from Nube Negra and Politologue. She also won this first time out 12 months ago, so the break isn’t a worry and regular pilot – Aidan Coleman – continues in the saddle.

 

2.55 – Unibet Greatwood Hurdle (A Handicap) (Grade 3) (GBB Race) Cl1 2m110y ITV

17/19 – Had won a 2m1f (or further) hurdles race before
17/19 – Had won no more than 4 times before over hurdles
14/19 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/19 – Had a recent run (within the last 6 weeks)
12/19 – Officially rated 140 or higher
12/19 – Finished in the top two last time out
12/19 – Had run at Cheltenham before
12/19 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/19 –  Winning distance – 2 lengths or further
10/19 – Had run 6 or less times over hurdles
9/19 – Placed favourites
8/19 – Carried 11-4 or more
8/19 – Came from the first three in the betting
7/19 – Won their previous race
7/19 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
4/19 – Winners that carried 11-12
4/19 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/19 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/19 – Winning favourites
2/19 – Trained by Alan King (2 of the last 4)
2/19 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 10/1
6 of the last 12 winners contested the previous season’s Supreme Novices’ or Triumph Hurdle

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Super-competitive as always for this Grade 3 Hurdle. With 14 of the last 19 winners aged 4 or 5, then this is good news for Adagio, Jesse Evans, Tritonic, Camprond, Botox Has, Rockadenn, No Ordinary Joe, Cormier, Galice Macalo and Rowland Ward. Horses that also had a recent run have fared best with 14 of the last 19 winners having raced in the last six weeks, while being placed in the top two last time out is another plus. With that in mind, and the good record in the race of the Alan King yard, then their TRITONIC (e/w) can go well. This 4  year-old was down the field in the Triumph Hurdle here in March, but returned to this track with a fine second last month and now into a handicap looks interesting. He’d probably not want it to get much softer to be seen at his best, but that last run would have blown away the cobwebs after 4 months away from the track, plus with just four runs over hurdles he’s a horse we’ve probably not got to the bottom of yet. Pipe’s Adagio can go well too. He’s a proven course winner that is yet to finish out of the top two from 6 runs over hurdles – the only niggle is the big weight (11-12) he’s got to shoulder. Campround was a tidy winner here last time out in Novice company and prior to that won well at Chepstow. The Hobbs yard are another that do well in the race too. This looks harder though and even though we know he stays further than this, the drop back in trip may just find him out and you worry that he might just get outpaced at a crucial stage. Henderson has No Ordinary Joe in the race and it’s hard to fault his chance having won his last two very well. He’s into a handicap for the first time here and looks well-treated off a mark of 133 – the concern would be his lack of experience in a race as competitive as this and being from Henderson, the value has gone in his price too. Cormier, from the Brian Ellison yard that won this in 2018, is another that can go well, while the Irish won this 12 months ago and have fair chances again with Jesse Evans, Tudor City and Bua Boy. Course winner – Glory And Fortune – is another to note and continues to rise up the ranks – winning his last two, but is another 8lbs higher here. The other two at bigger prices though are BOTOX HAS (e/w) and BALLYANDY (e/w). The last-named has run well in this race before and was a fine second 12 months ago too. He’s no spring chicken at 11, but is rated 8lbs lower than last year so on that form must have an e/w squeak. Botox Has fell on his chasing debut last time at Plumpton, but was a winner over hurdles last October here at Cheltenham and with Niall Houlihan riding to claim 5lbs it would be no shock to see him bounce back.

 

3.30 – Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The Sharp Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 2m110y ITV

16/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
14/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
13/17 – Won last time out
13/17 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles
13/17 – Favourites that finished in the top three
11/17 – Winning distance 2 lengths or less
10/17 – Aged 5 years-old
9/17 – Had won a NH Flat race before
9/17 – Went onto run in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (1 winner, Altior)
9/17 – Irish bred
8/17 – Carried 11-7 in weight
6/17 – Aged 4 years-old
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/17 – Won by the Nicholls stable
For Pleasure (14/1) won the race in 2020

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Just the four runners here but another decent race that will give a chance to see some of the stars of the future. Paul Nicholls introduces a French recruit to us all – SONIGINO – a two-time winner in France that is having his debut here and we all know Nicholls is a master with these sorts- any move in the betting will be key. Pikar, for Dan Skelton was a fair third on debut at Chepstow to the useful Knappers Hill, who is also trained by Nicholls, so he’ll have a line on this one, you’d feel. Washington is another that’s don’t nothing wrong in winning all three starts – two NH Flat races and on hurdles debut last time out at Bangor, but the call here is to stick with the Nigel Twiston-Davies runner – I LIKE TO MOVE IT. This 4 year-old beat the useful Tritronic here easily last time out and with that course form in the locker, it might take a good performance from one of the other three to lower this colours again. It’s no secret the NTD yard think he’s useful and he can further enhance his reputation here.

 

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