Cheltenham Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Friday 17th Nov 17

Cheltenham Horse Racing free tips

It’s DAY ONE of the Cheltenham November Meeting this Friday and to get us off-and-running the ITV cameras have FOUR LIVE races from Prestbury Park for us to take in that include the Glenfarclas Cross Countrya race trainer Enda Bolger has won 6 times in the last 14 years.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get GOING!

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

 

1:50 – BetVictor Handicap Chase Cl2 2m ITV

14/15 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
14/15 – Carried 11-7 or less in weight
13/15 – Raced at Cheltenham before
12/15 – Raced at least 5 times over fences previously
11/15 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
9/15 – Winning distance – 2 1/4 lengths or more
8/15 – Having their first run of the season
8/15 – Unplaced in their previous race
7/15 – Favourites placed
6/15 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting
6/15 – French-bred horse
3/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/15 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/15 – Favourites that won
3/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/15 – Raced at Ascot last time out
2/15 – Won their most recent race
2/15 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
2/15 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
0/15 – Irish-trained winners
Un Beau Roman won the race in 2016
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Paul Henderson-trained Un Beau Roman took this race 12 months ago so despite not firing since is one to not rule out, especially off 2lb lower mark and the fact he’s also the only proven course and distance winner in the field. 14 of the last 15 winners were aged 9 or younger so that’s not good news if you like the 10 year-old Bright New Dawn, while with 14 of the last 15 also carrying 11-7 or less in weight then this is a further negative for Bright New Dawn and Shanahan’s Turn. The in-form Exitas will catch punter’s eyes after winning three of his last four and has the promising James Bowen, who claims 7lbs, on his back. But with 13 of the last 15 winners coming here having not won last time out then this would be something for this 9 year-old to overcome, while he’s also 10lbs higher in the weights this time. Mick Thonic is a proven course winner and coming from the powerful Colin Tizzard camp then he’s another to consider if you can forgive a few below-par runs. But the call here is for the Ian Williams camp to gain another big-race success – this time with KAPSTADT. Yes, this 7 year-old has only raced twice over fences before, but on the flip-side that means there should be more to come. He was a solid second last time out to a fair yardstick in Darebin and also has winning hurdles form here at the track.

 

2.25 – Steel Plate And Sections Novices´ Chase Cl2 2m4f110y ITV

15/15 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
14/15 – Won between 0 and 1 times over fences previously
13/15 – Priced 6/1 or shorter
13/15 – Ran between 0 and 2 times over fences
12/15 –  Finished in the top three in their latest race
12/15 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
11/15 – Favourites placed
10/15 – Placed in the first two in their previous race
10/15 – Won by a horse aged 6 years-old  (9 of last 10 runnings)
8/15 – Raced at either Aintree (2), Cheltenham (4) or Auteuil (2) last time out
8/15 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
8/15 – Irish-bred horse
8/15 – First run over fences
6/15 – Raced already that season
6/15 – French-bred horse
5/15 – Won their latest race
5/15 – Trained by the Pipe stable
5/15 – Won over hurdles at Cheltenham previously
5/15 – Favourites that won
2/15 – Ridden by Noel Fehily
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 4/1
Dynaste, Denman, Weird Al, Imperial Commander, Time For Rupert and Grands Crus are all big names to win this race in recent years

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Only four runners here which is slightly disappointing but it does at least give us the chance to see the classy FINIAN’S OSCAR back on the track. This Colin Tizzard-trained 5 year-old was a high-class hurdler last season (rated 150) and has transformed that to fences already with a smooth victory at Chepstow last month. More needed here and he has to give weight away to the other three, but he was very impressive the last day and we can expect him to back a big impact on the Novice Chase scene this season. Of the rest, Coo Star Sivola, looks to have a fair bit to find at the weights, so Movewiththetimes and William Henry will provide the biggest threat to the selection. Both are decent sorts too and getting 8lbs from Finian’s then they have been brought into the mix. William Henry is a course winner over hurdles here too, but making his chasing debut a fair bit has to be taken on trust. Movewiththetimes, however, has tasted the bigger obstacles when 4th of 7 here last time out in a decent contest. That course experience is a plus, but was beaten just over 5 lengths at the line and based on a few sketchy jumps might have to brush up in that department too.

 

3.00 – Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Cl2 3m7f ITV

14/14 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
14/14 – Either Irish (8) or French (6) bred
13/14 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
11/14 – Winner came from the top 3 in the betting
11/14 – Returned 6/1 or shorter
11/14 – Had a recent run that season
11/14 – Won at least 5 times over fences previously
10/14 – Carried 11-5 or more in weight
10/14 – Favourites placed
10/14 – Unplaced in their last race
9/14 – Raced over this Cross County course previously (6 won)
9/14 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
9/14 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
6/14 – Trained by Enda Bolger
5/14 – Favourites that won
Urgent De Gregaine won the race in 2016
Josies Orders won this in 2015

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Cross Country race is not everyone’s cup of tea, but whether you are for or against it the race is still a decent spectacle and a firm fixture at the main Cheltenham meetings these days. The French-trained Urgent De Gregaine was the shock winner of the race 12 months ago so commands respect again. He is, however, 6lbs higher this time, but will head here fit and well after a nice run (2nd) last month in the Pardubicka in the Czech Republic – a race that is run over a similar course to this. The Nick Williams-trained Aubusson is interesting too and is another proven course winner here, but that came over hurdles so this very different test will pose some different questions. He’s a classy sort though that was 9th in the Hennessy last season too so if taking to the course would be a threat. But owner JP McManus looks to have his usual strong hand in the race with Cause Of Causes, Cantlow and Auvergnat all running in his famous green and gold silks. Getting weight and with the jockey claiming 5lbs then Auvergnat is sure to be popular for the Enda Bolger team, who have a cracking record in the race. Yes, at just 7 years-old he might have the legs on the other McManus runners, but, for me, the lack of a course win here would be a negative. Ok, he finished fourth in the main Festival Cross Country race so his ability to handle the track isn’t really in question, but it’s also worth pointing out he’s not completed in two of his last 7 starts so that wold be a worry too. He’s too short for me. Cantlow was third at the festival in this race so is another that has done well in these races in the past, but at 12 years-old you’d just be a tad worried age might be catching up with him – a player, but probably comes with a few risks too. So that leaves us with CAUSE OF CAUSES (e/w). Yes, he’s got to give 10lbs to the others but being rated 155 he’s the highest-rated in the field. Jamie Codd is a plus in the saddle and, as we all know, he landed the main Festival race back in March. Okay, the weights today in this handicap make life harder, but his Cheltenham record is second-to-none and we also saw him running a blinder in the Grand National back in April. He’s had plenty of time to get over that Aintree run and looks to have another big season ahead in these sort of races for the Gordon Elliott camp.

 

3.35 – Ballymore Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Hyde Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m5f ITV

13/13 – Priced 10/1 or shorter
13/13 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
12/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/13 – Had won a NH Flat race earlier in their career
10/13 – Had raced at either Uttoxeter (4), Chepstow (4) or Cheltenham (2) last time out
10/13 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (2 winners)
10/13 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
9/13 – Aged 5 years-old
7/13 – Won just once before
7/13 – Won last time out
7/13 – Had won over 2 ½ (or further) over hurdles before
4/13 – Raced at Chepstow last time out
4/13 – Raced at Uttoxeter last time out
4/13 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
3/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/13 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/13 – Went onto win a race at the Cheltenham Festival that season
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: An interesting race to end the LIVE action on day one and we should get a chance to see some of the stars of the future. Just the six runners, but with only Aye Aye Charlie looking out of it then the remaining five all have a chance. Calett Mad is a proven course winner here after landing the odds last month in decent fashion over 3m, so this slight drop back in trip (2m5f) won’t be an issue. However, this looks a harder race and although that effort would see him go close again here he’s a horse that has had a fair few races now and might just be vulnerable to an improver. Poetic Rhythm is another course winner and returned to the track last month with a decent win at Chepstow in a nice race. But, he’s got to give 5lbs to the others and that won’t be easy, but is another that might just be prone to one that is less exposed. Momella and Vision Des Flos certainly both fit the bill on that front and look useful sorts. Momella has won it’s last three for the Skelton yard and getting weight from all the others then this 5 year-old mare is interesting. She dotted-up last time at Fakenham, albeit in a much lesser race, but is clearly held in high regard. Vision Des Flos will be a popular winner for the Potts family, with Alan sadly passing away in the week, but does have a bit to find with Poetic Rhythm, who beat him by 6 lengths last time. Yes, a 5lb weight pull will help, but there was still just over 6 lengths between them at the line. So that leaves us with ON THE BLIND SIDE. This 5 year-old hails from the powerful Nicky Henderson yard and has done little wrong in winning both his starts to date. He was impressive at Aintree last time out a few weeks ago over 2m4f and this step up to 3m looks a big plus based on the way he was staying on at the finish that day. A tight and fascinating race, but the Henderson horse could have the most improvement still to come with only two career runs and if his jumping holds up is the call.

OddsMonkey
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