2022 Bet365 Gold Cup Free Tips & Trends

Sandown horse racing tips

The Bet365 Gold Cup will be known to older racing fans as The Whitbread, this 3m5 1/2f race is the last big jumping event of the NH season, and being staged on a mixed (jumps/flat) card then for many this signals the real handover between the two codes.

Run at Sandown Park racecourse the staying Handicap Grade Three chase has been won by some leading names over the years, including Desert Orchid, who landed the prize back in 1988. It’s also been a poor race for the favourite in recent times with not a single market leader win since Beau took the race in 2000, while it might pay to note that 23 of the last 29 (79%) winners carried less than 11st to victory.

Here at JUICESTORM we’ve got all the stats ahead of the 2022 renewal, this year run on Saturday April 23rd.

Past Bet365 Gold Cup Winners

2021 – POTTERMAN (12/1)
2020 – No Race
2019 – TALKISCHEAP (7/1)
2018 – STEP BACK (7/1)
2017 – HELLAN HARRI (40/1)
2016 – THE YOUNG MASTER (8/1)
2015 – JUST A PAR (14/1)
2014 – HADRIANS APPROACH (10/1)
2013 – QUENTIN COLLONGES (14/1)
2012 – TIDAL BAY (9/1)
2011 – POKER DE SIVOLA (11/1)
2010 – CHURCH ISLAND (20/1)
2009 – HENNESSY (13/2)
2008 – MONKERHOSTIN (25/1)
2007 – HOT WELD (6/1)
2006 – LACDOUDAL (10/1)
2005 – JACK HIGH (16/1)
2004 – PUNTAL (25/1)
2003 – AD HOC (7/1)

Bet365 Gold Cup Betting Trends and Stats

17/18 – Had raced in the last 63 days
16/18 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
14/18 – Carried 11-0 or less
14/18 – Had won over 3m or further before
14/18 – Aged 9 or younger
13/18  – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
11/18 – Officially rated 140 or higher
11/18 – Came from the top 7 in the betting market
10/18 – Had raced in the last 25 days
10/18 – Finished 4th or worse last time out
5/18 – Won with 10st in weight
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/18 – Won last time out
2/18 – Ran in the Aintree Grand National last time out
2/18 – Ran in the Scottish Grand National last time out
2/18 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/18 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/18 – Ridden by Sean Bowen
2/18 – Trained by Alan King (last two winners)
0/18 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 14/1

Other Key Bet365 Gold Cup Facts

The last winning favourite was Beau in 2000
Just one 6 year-old winner since 1959
24 of the last 30 (80%) winners carried less than 11st
8 year-olds have won 7 of the last 18 runnings (39%)
14 of the last 18 (78%) winners were aged 7, 8 or 9 years-old
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times

Let’s take a look at some of the key stats…………………..

Recent Run – With a massive 17 of the last 18 winners having raced in the last 63 days, this is a very good starting point once the final runners are out. This stat can also be delved into further with 10 of the last 18 winners having raced in the last 25 days. Just three of the last 18 winners won their last race, so don’t focus too much on trying to find a horse that heads here off the back of a win. Finally, here with 10 of the last 17 also finishing fourth or worse last time out this is another trend to note.

Weight – Another key trend to help narrow down the runners with 16 of the last 18 winners carried 11st 5lbs or less in weight, with 14 of the last 18 having 11st or less. Since 2007, we’ve only had three winners that won with 11st or more – but one of those was last year – Potterman (11st 9lbs). If we go back further, then 24 of the last 30 winners (80%) carried less than 11st, while 5 of the last 18 winners won the race with just 10st. Therefore, even though it doesn’t always apply to these staying races, it’s clear here that those towards the bottom of the handicap have done best.

Age – The most recent winner in 2021 – Potterman – was an 8 year-old when he won the race – with 39% of the last 18 winners that age. Plus, last year’s winner further backed up the trend that’s seen 14 of the last 18 winners aged 9 or younger. Having said that, we have seen three 11 year-olds – Monkerhostin (2008), Church Island (2010) and Tidal Bay (2012) – take the race in recent times. At the other end of the age spectrum, we’ve had just one 6 year-old winner (Bounce Back, 2002) since 1959.

Favourites and Betting – Another big stat here in recent times has seen this race being a terrible race for the favourites – the last winning market leader was in 2000 (Beau). Backed up again in 2021 with the jolly – Enrilo – finishing third. But, it’s worth noting that horse – Enrilo – did actually win the race, but was placed third after hanging in the closing stages and causing interference.

However, that said, don’t normally have to look too far away from the favourite to find the winner of this race. The 2019 winner – Talkischeap – was sent off the 7/1 joint second best in the betting, while 13 of the last 18 winners returned 14/1 or shorter and 11 of those came from the top seven in the market.

Trip – It’s no real surprise that 14 of the last 18 winners of this staying handicap have won previously over at least 3m, but it’s still something to note in case there are any new kids on the block trying the 3m+ trip for the first time.

Trainers – The Alan King yard have won the last two runnings of this race so anything they run has to be respected. While other yards to have on your radar have to be Paul Nicholls, who has four successes to his name – the most recent being in 2015. Nicky Henderson, Peter Bowen, Neil Mulholland and Philip Hobbs are other stables that have got their name on the winners’ hall of fame in recent years too.

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Onto the main event on the final jumps day of the season – and we’ve another decent but very competitive renewal with 15 runners lining up for the bet365 Gold Cup.

Many added mini sub-plots in the race as well, with last year’s disqualified horse – Enrilo – returning for more, while the eventual winner from the Alan King yard – Potterman. We’ve also got the recent Scottish Grand National winner and second – Win My Wings and Kitty’s Light – entered.

Enrilo has figured high in the betting for a while and it’s not hard to see why. Okay, he ran about in the race at the end last season which cost him the prize – he won the race but was placed third in the end by the stewards.

He’s back on only a pound higher rating but is now a year older as an 8 year-old and will be a wiser and stronger horse. He should also be spot-on after a fourth at Kempton at the end of February and you suspect the bet365 Gold Cup has been is target all season to try and make up what happended 12 months ago. Certainly a huge player, but the small concern is that he might go off favourite and the last jolly to win the bet365 Gold Cup was in 2000!

The Christian Williams stable could be the ones to ruin the Enrilo plan, as they’ve a decent hand with recent Scottish National 1st and 2nd running – Win My Wings and Kitty’s Light – while they also have Coral Trophy winner Cap Du Nord in the race.

Win My Wings is has been raised 14lbs for that Scottish National win, but the runner-up Kitty’s Light, who ran on well in that race, is only up 2lbs. Despite that rise we can expect Win My Wings to go well, but the extra rise in the ratings is the concern. Kitty’s Light is still young (6) so could have the more to come and of the three Williams runners just edges it.

The small worry with Kitty’s Light is that he got a tad behind last time at Ayr and despite running on well at the finish, the conern here at Sandown is thtat it might not be easy to make up the ground – especially with the Railway Fences down the back straight coming thick and fast. But he did handle the track well 12 months ago to be second and certainly wasn’t helped with Enrilo’s antics that day either. Of the Williams trio he can come out on top for me.

Cap Du Nord only has 10st-7lbs in weight to carry and is a proven course winner at the track, but will need to put a poor run at Aintree last time behind him.

Last year’s eventual winner – Potterman – comes from the Alan King stable that have won the last two runnings of this race too. He’s only up 2lbs higher from last year and comes here in top winning form after going in at Kelso – that was also his first run off a wind op, so has to be one for the shortlist.

The two I’m happy to play here though are FLEGMATIK (e/w) and MUSICAL SLAVE (e/w). In recent year’s 14 of the last 18 winners carry 11st or less, so this is a plus for this pair with Flegmatik having 10st-11lbs and Musical Slave just 10st-2lb.

FLEGMATIK for trainer Dan Skelton, comes here having won his last two at Kempton and although a 9lb rise is a chaser in-form and with more to come. Yes, the longer trip (3m 5f)here is an unknownbut he’s won over 3m and on this better ground you feel it’s worth a crack.

MUSICAL SLAVE  also comes here having won his last two – at Haydock last time, but also here at Sandown in March. He also gets inhere off the same mark as last time and with only 10st-2lbs to carry has a light weight  which is a bonus over this 3m5f distance. He’s also another that is trying the longer trip for the first time, but kept on well over 3m 1 1/2f last time to suggest it’s worth a crack.

 

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