2021 Cheltenham Festival Free Tips & Trends: DAY TWO

2021 Cheltenham Festival Free Tips

Each day of the 2021 Cheltenham Festival here at JUICESTORM we give you our quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY Cheltenham Festival race. Apply these trends to the final cards and you will build-up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

Did you know  -18 of the last 22 Champion Chase winners came from the first three in the betting?

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2021 Cheltenham Festival for you……………………………………

 

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CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DAY TWO:

Wednesday 17th March (Old Course & Cross Country)

 

1.30 – Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 5f ITV

2020 Winner: ENVOI ALLEN 4/7 fav
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Davy Russell


Pluses….

  • 14 of the last 16 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 5 of the last 7 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
  • 10 of the last 12 winners came from the top two-rated on BHA ratings
  • 16 of the last 20 winners returned 17/2 or shorter
  • 20 of the last 26 winners won last time out
  • 25 of the last 26 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • The Irish have won 11 of the last 18 (6 of last 7)
  • Horses rated 150+ do well
  • The last 11 winners all won at least one bumper race
  • All of the last 15 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • In the last 10 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 18 of the 30 top 3 places
  • 20 of the last 22 were NH bred
  • 14 of the last 22 had won a graded race before
  • Look for past Irish point-to-point winners (7 of the last 11 had won an Irish Point)
  • Respect Willie Mullins – 4 winners and 8 placed in last 15 years

Negatives….

  • Only one winner aged older than 6 has won since 1974
  • Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
  • Horses aged 7 or older are 0 from 56 (since 1988)
  • Only two of the last 35 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • The last 17 Challow Hurdle winners have all been beaten
  • Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten. 0 from 30 in the last 15 years)

 

2.10 – Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 3m 80y ITV

2020 Winner: CHAMP 4/1
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Barry Geraghty

Pluses….

  • 4 of the last 12 winners ran in the Flogas Chase (Leopardstown, 4th Feb) that season
  • The last 19 winners had run in a Graded Novice Chase
  • 23 of the last 26 winners had only one previous season over hurdles
  • Respect 7 year-olds – won 11 of the last 14 (16 of last 21)
  • 9 of the last 15 winners won last time out
  • 7 of the last 11 winners were beaten on their chase debut
  • 8 of the last 13 winners had won a bumper before
  • 6 of the last 14 favourites won
  • Every winner since 1997 had their chase debut the previous year
  • Irish bred horses are 20 from the last 24
  • 9 of the last 14 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
  • 6 of the last 12 winners were trained in Ireland
  • Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls often do well in the race
  • 23 of the last 28 were novice hurdling last season
  • 4 of the last 11 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
  • Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (52 of the last 54 winners had)
  • 11 of the last 14 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year

Negatives….

  • No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
  • Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
  • Avoid horses that had had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior
  • Just 2 of the last 21 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
  • The last 22 winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Feltham, Kempton 26th Dec) have lost
  • Avoid unbeaten horses (only 2 of the last 21 winners)
  • Mares are currently 0-from-11 in the race
  • Horses in headgear are currently 0 from 30

 

 2.50 – Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 5f ITV

 

2020 Winner: DAME DE COMPAGNIE (5/1 fav)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Barry Geraghty

 

Pluses….

  • 11 of the last 16 were 2nd season hurdlers
  • 8 of the last 11 winners had run at the Festival before
  • 9 of the last 12 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
  • 9 of the last 12 winners were rated in the 140’s
  • 7 of the last 11 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • 12 of the last 15 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
  • 19 of the last 26 winners won earlier that season
  • Respect JP McManus-owned runners
  • Respect trainers Nicky Henderson & Gordon Elliott (6 wins in last 11 years)
  • 10 of the last 19 winners were FRENCH-BRED
  • 14 of the last 27 won last time out
  • Respect Irish-trained runners (5 of the last 12)
  • Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (last 12 winners)
  • 14 of the last 16 winners had run 32 days or longer ago (look for horses that have had a small break)
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott is 2 from 11
  • 5 year-olds do well from the small % that have run (win and place)

Negatives….

  • Just one winning favourite in the last 17 years (2020)
  • Only 3 winners since 2000 had run in 10+ hurdles races
  • Horses aged 10+ are just 3 from 308 to even place since 1999
  • Horses rated 150+ don’t have a great record, although the 2019 winner was rated 151
  • Only 3 winners since 2000 had run more than 9 times over hurdles
  • Willie Mullins won the race in 2018 and had the second in 2019, but overall has a bad record – 41 runners – just two placed inside the top 2

 

3.30 – Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) 1m 7f 99y ITV

 

2020 Winner: POLITOLOGUE 6/1
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Harry Skelton

Pluses….

  • 13 of the last 20 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
  • 4 of the last 8 winners won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
  • 23 of the last 36 had won at the Festival before
  • Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 9 of the last 13 between them
  • Nicky Henderson has won 5 of the last 9
  • 14 of the last 19 winners won last time out
  • 16 of the last 18 winners had run that calendar year
  • 37 of the last 39 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
  • 15 of the last 21 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
  • 7 of the last 14 winners were French-bred
  • 11 of the last 18 winners were second season chasers
  • 14 of the last 16 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
  • 18 of the last 22 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
  • 15 of the last 21 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase
  • 6 of the last 10 Arkle winners (previous season) to run have won
  • Past champions do well – 13 horses have won the CC more than once

Negatives….

  • Only two winners priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 37 years
  • Just 1 winner in last 16 had run 4+ times that season
  • Horses that didn’t run in that calendar year are 2-from-31
  • Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, is yet to win this race
  • Just 1 of the last 19 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
  • 12 of the last 15 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
  • Be wary of horses older than 10 – just 2 winners since 1977
  • Only 3 winners aged 6 or younger in the last 47 year
  • Just one 11 year-old winner in the last 42 years

 

Queen Mother Champion Chase Betting Trends

16/18 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
16/18 – Had won at least 5 times over fences before
16/18 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before
14/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/18 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Won last time out
11/18 – Placed favourites
11/18 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
10/18 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
8/18 – Irish bred
8/18 – French bred
7/18 – Winning favourites
6/18 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
6/18 – Won the Arkle Chase the previous season
4/18 – Ran in the Tied Cottage Chase (Punchestown) last time out
4/18 – Had won the race before
3/18 – Ran in the Game Spirit Chase (Newbury) last time out
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 9/2

 

Other Queen Mother Champion Chase Stats

14 of the last 20 winners ran in that season’s Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown)
22 of the last 36 winners had previously won at the Cheltenham Festival
38 of the last 39 winners returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
16 of the last 19 Arkle Chase winners to run the next season in this have finished placed or better
18 of the last 19 winners had won a Grade One Chase previously

 

Champion Chase – 23 Year Trends

17/23 – British-trained winners
6/23 – Irish-trained winners
Willie Mullins (Ire) is yet to train the winner
Nicky Henderson (UK) has trained 5 of the last 9 winners (won the race 6 times in total)
Paul Nicholls (UK) has trained 6 of the last 21 winners
Henry de Bromhead (Ire) has trained 2 of the last 10 winners
Jessica Harrington (Ire) has trained 2 of the last 18 winners

 

4.10 – Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 3m 6f 37y ITV

 

2020 Winner: EASYSLAND 3/1
Trainer – David Cottin
Jockey – Jonathan Plouganou

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 13 of the last 16 runnings
  • Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won the race 5 times)
  • 19 of the last 23 winners came from the top three in the betting
  • 9 of the last 16 ran in the December Cross Country race here
  • Respect Keith Donoghue, Richard Johnson and Davy Russell have 2 wins each
  • 13 or the last 16 winners were aged 10 or younger
  • Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 11 (5 placed in the top 5 too)
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 4 runnings
  • 7 winners since 2005 owned by JP McManus
  • 3 of the last 6 winners were owned by the Gigginstown Stud House

Negatives….

  • Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record
  • Horses aged 7 or younger are only 3 from 98, but last year’s winner was 6
  • Trainer Willie Mullins is 0 from 12
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 from 13

 

 4.50 – Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 2m 62y ITV

 

2020 Winner: CHOSEN MATE 7/2fav
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Davy Russell  

Pluses….

  • 16 of the last 21 winners carried 11st or less
  • 14 of the last 17 winners had run at the Festival before
  • 8 of the last 17 winners ran in the previous renewal
  • Irish have won 4 of the last 8 runnings
  • 8 of the last 11 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • 11 of the last 17 winners were aged 8 or older
  • Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 9 placed)
  • The last 10 winners were rated at least 138
  • 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
  • Novices have won 6 of the last 12 runnings
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were rated between 140-147
  • 8 of the last 10 winners carried 10-11 or more in weight
  • 19 of the last 21 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences

Negatives….

  • Horses aged 10+ are just 2 wins from the last 25 runnings
  • Horses that last ran 45 days or more ago have seen just 8 winners since 1990
  • Last time out winners are just 1 from last 15
  • Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 30 since 2005
  • Just 2 winners rated 147+ since 1992
  • Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record

 

 5.30 – Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1) 2m 87y RTV

 

2020 Winner: FERNY HOLLOW
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend

Pluses….

  • 26 of the last 28 had won last time out (all of last 17)
  • 21 of the last 28 winners trained in Ireland
  • Respect Irish-trained runners (21 from 37)
  • 19 of the last 28 came from the top 6 in the betting
  • 21 of the last 28 were Irish-bred
  • 10 of the last 20 winners were second season horses
  • 14 of the last 15 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 18 of the last 28 winners aged 5 years-old
  • 18 of the last 20 had their debut runs in Ireland
  • 12 of the last 18 had been beaten in a race before
  • 6 of the last 11 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
  • Respect Willie Mullins (10 winners) – also had first three in 2018 and first and second in 2020
  • The Irish lead the British 22-7 in the race history
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 4 runnings
  • 9 of the last 18 winners came from the top 3 in the betting

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
  • Just 2 winners failed to win last time out
  • 4 of the last 11 winners were won by UK-based trainers
  • 4 year-olds are 1 from 64 since 2000 (Cue Card)
  • Gigginstown, Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often focus on the race

 

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