2020 Cheltenham Festival Betting Trends & Tips: DAY FOUR

2020 Cheltenham Festival Free Tips

Each day of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival horse racing trends expert Andy Newton will give you his quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

Did you know that 16 of the last 20 Cheltenham Gold Cup winners ran in the Savills Chase or King George earlier that season?

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2019 Cheltenham Festival for you……………………………………

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CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL DAY FOUR:

Friday 13th March 2020

 

13:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle   2m 1f

2019 Winner: PENTLAND HILLS (20/1)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville

Pluses…..

  • 20 of the last 26 winners won last time out
  • Irish have won 4 of the last 7 runnings
  • French-breds have filled 9 of the last 15 places (last 5 runnings)
  • 11 of the last 15 came from the top 4 in the betting
  • Respect Henderson (7 winners), Nicholls, and King-trained runners
  • 7 of the last 16 first ran over hurdles by November (5 of the last 8 by mid-Nov)
  • 10 of the last 14 winners returned 13/2 or shorter
  • The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide
  • 6 of the last 11 winners had run in France before
  • Nicky Henderson has trained 7 winners of the race

Negatives….

  • Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
  • Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
  • Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
  • Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 12


14:10 Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle   2m 1f

2020 Winner: CH’TIBELLO (12/1)
Trainer – Dan Skelton
Jockey – Harry Skelton

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 8 of the last 13 runnings
  • 4 of the last 12 winners ran in that season’s Coral.ie Hurdle (Leopardsotwn)
  • 13 of the last 14 winners were rated in the 130’s
  • 7 of the last 12 winners returned 20/1 or bigger
  • 5 of the last 11 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
  • 10 of the last 14 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 12 of the last 14 winners were priced in double-figures
  • 12 of the last 16 winners began their careers on the flat
  • Look for Mullins, Martins & Nicholls-trained runners
  • Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
  • 10 of the last 19 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 13 of the last 16 winners were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
  • 11 of the last 13 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • Paul Nicholls is 4 from 28 (+18pts)
  • Willie Mullins is 4 from 33 (+46pts)
  • Trainer Dan Skelton has trained the last 2 winners

Negatives….

  • Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
  • Since 1960 only 5 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
  • Since 1961, only 9 winners had run at the Festival before
  • Since 2005, just one winner rated 140+ (146 runners)
  • Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
  • Avoid horses making their handicap debuts

 

14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle   3m

2019 Winner: MINELLA INDO (50/1)
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore

Pluses….

  • 9 of the last 15 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
  • 8 of the last 15 came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 9 of the last 15 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
  • 13 of the last 15 had run in a race over 3m
  • 12 of the last 14 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 13 of the last 14 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 4 of the last 14 favourites won

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
  • Avoid horses that DIDN’T finish 1st or 2nd last time out
  • Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles
  • Willie Mullins is 1 from 35 in the race
  • Only 4 of the last 15 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year

 

15:30 Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase   3m 2½f

2019 Winner: AL BOUM PHOTO (12/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend

Pluses….

  • 16 of the last 20 winners ran in the Savills Chase or King George that season
  • 17 of the last 19 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 13 of the last 19 had won or placed 2nd at the Festival before
  • 16 of the last 19 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
  • 18 of the last 19 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
  • 11 of the last 12 winners ran 3 or less times that season
  • 16 of the last 23 winners were bred in Ireland
  • 11 of the last 14 winners won last time out
  • 5 of the last 14 favourites won
  • ALL of the last 20 winners were aged 9 or younger

 

Negatives….

  • Non-Grade One winners have a poor record
  • No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 71)
  • Horses rated 166 or less are only 5 from last 33
  • Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season
  • Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record
  • Willie Mullins has only won the race once (2019), 1 from 30 (had last 4 of the last 7 seconds and the 2019 winner though)
  • Just 1 of the last 12 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
  • Horses that were beaten in their first Gold Cup don’t fare well

 

16:10 St James’ Place Foxhunter Chase   3m 2½f

2019 Winner: HAZEL HILL (7/2 fav)
Trainer – Philip Rowley
Jockey – Mr Alex Edwards

Pluses…..

  • 25 of the last 29 winners were aged under 11 years-old
  • 25 of the last 34 won last time out
  • 8 of the last 11 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
  • 27 of the last 31 started out in point-to-point races
  • 11 of the last 14 winners ran 34 days or less ago
  • Respect the Irish runners (won 6 of last 9)
  • 5 of the last 8 winners ran in the Leopardstown Inn Hunters’ Chase
  • 9 of the last 14 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
  • 8 of the last 11 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
  • 11 of the last 12 winners finished in the top 3 last time out

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
  • Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
  • 26 of the last 28 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost – but the 2019 winner – Hazel Hill – defied this trend
  • Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers
  • Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
  • Horses aged 11+ are just 5 from 236 since 1990

 

16:50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase   2m ½f

2019 Winner: CROCO BAY (66/1)
Trainer – Ben Case
Jockey – Kielan Woods

Pluses….

  • 16 of the last 20 winners carried 11st or less
  • 14 of the last 16 winners had run at the Festival before
  • 8 of the last 16 winners ran in the previous renewal
  • Irish have won 3 of the last 7 runnings
  • 8 of the last 10 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • 11 of the last 16 winners were aged 8 or older
  • Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 9 placed)
  • The last 9 winners were rated at least 138
  • 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
  • Novices have won 5 of the last 11 runnings
  • 6 of the last 9 winners were rated between 140-147
  • 7 of the last 9 winners carried 10-11 or more in weight
  • 18 of the last 20 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences

Negatives….

  • Horses aged 10+ are just 2 win from the last 24 runnings
  • Horses that last ran 45 days or more ago have seen just 7 winners since 1990
  • Last time out winners are just 1 from last 14
  • Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 28 since 2005
  • Just 2 winners rated 147+ since 1992
  • Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record

 

 

17:30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle   2m 4½f

2019 Winner: EARLY DOORS (5/1)
Trainer – Joseph O’Brien
Jockey – Jonjo O’Neill

Pluses….

  • 10 of the last 11 winners were 2nd season-hurdlers
  • Irish have won 6 of the last 9 (5 making handicap debuts)
  • 31 of the 33 win and place horses were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
  • Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
  • 9 of the 11 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
  • 5 of the 11 winners won last time out
  • 7 of the 11 winners were rated 133-139
  • 7 of the 11 winners returned at a double-figure price (9 of the last 11 were 16/1 or less)
  • 5 and 6 year-old have won 10 of last 11 runnings
  • Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
  • Willie Mullins is 3 from 16 runners in the race (won 3 of the last 9 runnings)
  • Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (4 winners, 5 places)
  • Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 7 years

Negatives….

  • Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 19, inc 3 favs)
  • Just 1 winning fav in the 11-year history (7/10 returned in double-figures)
  • Horses in headgear are currently 1 from 54
  • Only 3 winners have previous Festival experience

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