2019 Winter Derby Betting Trends – First run in 1998 the Betway-sponsored Winter Derby is staged at Lingfield racecourse and run on their All Weather track. The 1m2f contest in now a Group 3 race after being upgraded from Listed class back in 2006.
In recent years a 4 year-old has won the race three times in the last 8 runnings, while it could pay to concentrate on horses aged 6 or younger as this age group has been responsible for 13 of the last 16 winners – last year the David Elsworth-trained Master The World won the race under jockey Sean Levey
Here at JUICESTORM we look back at the recent winners and gives you all the key stats to take in the 2019 renewal – this year run on Saturday 23rd February.
Recent Lingfield Winter Derby Winners
2018 – MASTER THE WORLD (16/1)
2017 – CONVEY (11/2)
2016 – GRENDISAR (11/4)
2015 – TRYSTER (3/1 fav)
2014 – ROBIN HOODS BAY (10/1)
2013 – FARRAAJ (6/4 fav)
2012 – PREMIO LOCO (5/1)
2011 – NIDEEB (9/4 fav)
2010 – TRANQUIL TIGER (11/8 fav)
2009 – SCINTILLO (8/1)
2008 – HATTAN (14/1)
2007 – GENTLEMAN’S DEAL (4/1 jfav)
2006 – SRI DIAMOND (8/1)
2005 – ECCENTRIC (7/2)
2004 – CALUKI (14/1)
2003 – PARASOL (5/2 jfav)
Key Lingfield Winter Derby Betting Trends
16/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or shorter
13/16 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
12/16 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
12/16 – Had run at Lingfield previously
12/16 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
12/16 – Had raced at either Lingfield (8) or Kempton (4) last time out
12/16 – Winning distance – less than a length
10/16 – Placed in their last race
10/16 – Drawn in stall 7 or less
10/16 – Came from the top 3 in the market
10/16 – Won at Lingfield previously
10/16 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
9/16 – Won their last race
8/16 – Won at least 6 times previously
7/16 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the 16 renewals is 6/1
JUICESTORM VERDICT: It will be a shock if the John Gosden yard are not winning the Winter Derby for the first time here with their 117-rated WISSAHICKON. This 4 year-old has a fair bit in-hand on the official ratings and has already beaten some of his rivals in recent wins over this course and distance. Frankie continues in the saddle and the pocket Italian also has a decent 40% strike-rate when riding 4+ year-olds at the track. Of the rest, last year’s winner – Master The World – can’t be totally ruled out but is still rated 10lbs lower than the selection – he’ll be looking to become the first ever back-to-back winner of the race. While Big Country has finished runner-up to the Gosden horse the last twice so is another for the each-way hunters.
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