Run over 1m4f the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is one of Europe’s most valuable Group One contests that is open to horses of either sex that are aged 3 or older and staged at Longchamp racecourse.
In recent years the contest has been dominated by the younger horses with 11 of the last 17 winners being aged 3 years-old, while 12 of the last 17 – came here off the back of a last time out victory. Last year we saw the John Gosden-trained Enable land the race for a second time and if lining-up again in 2019 will be looking to become the first horse to win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe three times.
As always, we are on-hand with all the key stats for the 2019 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – this year run on Sunday 6th October.
Recent Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Winners
2018 – Enable (Evs)
2017 – Enable (10/11 fav)
2016 – Found (6/1)
2015 – Golden Horn (9/2)
2014 – Treve (11/1)
2013 – Treve (9/2)
2012 – Solemia (33/1)
2011 – Danedream (20/1)
2010 – Workforce (6/1)
2009 – Sea The Stars (4/6 fav)
2008 – Zarkava (13/8 fav)
2007 – Dylan Thomas (11/2)
2006 – Rail Link (4/7 fav)
2005 – Hurricane Run (11/4)
2004 – Bago (10/1)
2003 – Dalakhani (9/4)
2002 – Marienbard (158/10)
Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Betting Trends
16/17 – Had won a Group 1 race before
15/17 – Had won over 1m4f before
13/17 – Had 4 or more runs that season
13/17 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
13/17 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
12/17 – Had won at least 5 times before
12/17 – Won last time out
11/17 – Aged 3 years-old
11/17 – Had run at Longchamp before
10/17 – Had won at Longchamp previously
9/17 – Placed favourites
8/17 – Female winners
8/17 – Won by a French-based yard
7/17 – Ran at Longchamp last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
5/17 – Won by a UK-based yard
2/17 – Trained by Andre Fabre (won the race 7 times in all)
2/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2016, 2007)
3 of the last 10 Epsom Derby winners that season have won
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 7/1
Trainer John Gosden has won 3 of the last 4 runnings
Since 1976 we’ve seen just 2 winners aged 5 or older
18 of the last 25 winners were aged 3 years-old
Jockey Olivier Peslier has won the race 4 times
Jockey Frankie Dettori has won the race 6 times
So, will we be witnessing Arc history on Sunday as the John Gosden-trained ENABLE will be looking to win Europe’s most expensive middle-distance race for a record-breaking third time.
The super-mare landed the 2017 and 2018 renewals in great fashion and at the age of 5 she’s back for more in what will surely be her last season if she completes the feat.
She’ll have her regular pilot in Frankie Dettori doing the steering and with the pocket Italian having already won six Arcs then there’s plenty of experience in the saddle.
So – can Enable do it?
For me, the quick answer is – YES!
Why not? She’s already proven that the Longchamp track is fine, while she’s returned this season just as good (if not better) than ever by winning the Eclipse, King George and Yorkshire Oaks. She comes into the race with 12 straight wins and has only tasted defeat once from her 14 career runs.
She acts on all ground and with guts, speed and stamina it’s hard to even find a small hole to pick at when it comes to her profile.
What do the trends say?
Enable does tick most of the main stats, but for those looking to take her on there are two BIG TRENDS that she does fall down on. Firstly, her age (5 years-old) as we’ve only seen two winning 5 (or older) horses land the Arc since 1976. 18 of the last 25 winners were aged 3 years-old.
While her draw might be a negative too. In the last 17 years horses drawn 8 or lower have won the Arc 13 times. So, that’s a 76% strike-rate for horses that were drawn 8 or lower.
Having said that, we are talking about Enable here. She’s defied the stats all her racing career so far and drawn 9 means she only missing out of that draw stat by one stall. The John Gosden yard have also landed three of the last four Arcs and in Frankie she will have no better man to guide her into the record books.
Best Of The Rest
Japan is the main hope of the powerful Aidan O’Brien yard, who have won the Arc twice in the past, and he’s a horse that has started to fulfil his potential with wins at Royal Ascot, Longchamp and York this season.
Being a 3 year-old he also gets a handy 3lbs from Enable and this return to 1m4f looks a big plus. He’s drawn in 10, so right next to Enable too, so can keep close tabs on her.
O’Brien also runs Magical, who was beaten just over 5 lengths (10th) in the Arc last season. Since that run she’s bounced back with 9 top-two finishes (4 wins) but was beaten again by Enable at York in the Yorkshire Oaks in August. She’s a high-class filly, but it’s hard to see her turning the tables on Enable. Draw 8 means she’s another that is close by the favourite – with the O’Brien main runners in fact sandwiching Enable when it comes to the draw.
The main French hope looks to be the J-C Rouget-trained Sottsass, who has now won 4 of his six starts, including the G1 Prix du Jockey Club – the French Derby – back in June. With just six career runs he will have more to come and blew away the cobwebs with an easy G2 win at Longchamp in the Prix Niel over this trip. Draw one looks ideal and it’s hard to carb his chance either, but has he met a horse of Enable’s class yet?
Godolphin’s Ghaiyyath is another with solid form and was an easy 14 length winner in Germany (G1) last time out. However, the form of that win might look a bit flattering and draw 12 doesn’t look ideal. He was also beaten by WALDGEIST (e/w) at Longchamp back in April and it could be this Andre Fabre runner that can go best of those at a bigger price.
Okay, he’s another 5 year-old but he’s got plenty of experience (20 runs) and was only beaten 1 ¾ lengths in this race 12 months ago. He also didn’t get the clearest of runs that day so with a bit more luck can go well. Draw 3 looks ideal as he came from stall 13 last year too and he also heads here off the back of a good win over course and distance in the G2 Prix Foy. Add in that he’s trained by the French master that is Andre Fabre, who have won this race a remarkable seven times then I think it’s fair to say the horse is in safe hands when it comes to being prepared for this race.
JUICESTORM VERDICT: ENABLE
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