2019 Lincoln Handicap Free Tips and Betting Trends

Lincoln Handicap Betting Trends

Billed as the feature race on the first Saturday of the new British flat racing turf season, the Unibet-sponsored Lincoln Handicap is run over a distance of 1m at Doncaster racecourse.  

In recent years the race has been dominated by horses aged 4 years-old, winning 9 of the last 16 renewals, while with three wins in the last 12 runnings, including 12 months ago, then trainer William Haggas is the man to look out for.

Weight-carried has been a big trend too, with 15 of the last 16 winners carrying 9-4 or less, while 8 of the last 15 (50%) were officially rated between 95-99.

Despite, being a competitive handicap the favourites in the betting don’t have too bad a record either with 3 of the last 16 (19%) winning, but also note that 10 of the last 16 favourites were unplaced.

The 2019 Lincoln Handicap will be run on Saturday 30th March 2019

Unibet Lincoln Handicap Betting Trends

16/16 – Aged 6 or younger
15/16 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
14/16 – Had won over at least 1m before
13/16 – Had won between 2-4 times before
12/16 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
11/16 – Having their first run of the flat season
10/16 – Unplaced favourites
10/16 – Returned a double figure price in the betting
10/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
9/16 – Aged 4 years-old
8/16 – Had raced at Doncaster before
8/16 – Officially rated between 95-99
8/16 – Placed first or second last time out
7/16 – Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
6/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Placed horses from stall 12 (1 winner)
4/16 – Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
3/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by William Haggas
2/16 – Trained by Mark Tompkins
2/16 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/16 – Trained by John Quinn
8 of the last 9 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-4 in weight
Just 1 winner has carried 9-10 in the last 33 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 14/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Redcar and the 2007 running was staged at Newcastle

Lincoln Handicap Recent Winners

2018 – ADDEYBB (5/1)
2017 – BRAVERY (20/1)
2016 – SECRET BRIEF (12/1)
2015 – GABRIAL (12/1)
2014 – OCEAN TEMPEST (33/1)
2013 – LEVITATE (20/1)
2012 – BRAE HILL (25/1)
2011 – SWEET LIGHTNING (16/1)
2010 – PENITENT (3/1 fav)
2009 – EXPRESSO STAR (10/3 fav)
2008 – SMOKEY OAKEY (10/1)
2007 – VERY WISE (9/1)
2006 – BLYTHE KNIGHT (22/1)
2005 – STREAM OF GOLD (5/1 fav)
2004 – BABODANA (20/1)
2003 –  PABLO (5/1)

Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Redcar and the 2007 running was staged at Newcastle

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With ALL of the last 16 Lincoln winners aged 6 or younger this is a key trend to whittle down the 22 runners – however, a massive 19 fit the bill. 15 of the last 16 winners carried 9-4 or less in weight too, and this helps narrow the field down further as the top five on the card – Another Batt, Safe Voyage, Masham Star, Aquarium and Zwayyan seemingly have too much weight. The Godolphin runner – AUXERRE – is the one that’s been all the rage though and with 9-3 in weight, this 4 year-old ticks a lot of boxes. He’s drawn in stall 17 too and with 12 of the last 16 winners coming from 9 or higher this is another plus. There is every chance he’s a better horse than a handicapper and that seem to be the trend of late with the top stables targeting this lucrative handicapper with their up-and-coming Listed or Group performer. Last year’s winner Addeybb was another example of this. With just four career runs this Charlie Appleby runner will certainly have more to come and those against him will look to his inexperience, especially in this big field. However, with a high draw there is every chance this race will split into two contests so the big field to the horse won’t actually seem that big as from stall 17 he can get involved early on with the others drawn high. Yes, he’s not much value though, so of the slightly bigger-priced runners South Seas and Kynren can go well – both are drawn high too and have plenty of experience in these big-field handicaps. Ripp Orf is another that’s fared well in these sorts of races in the past and often comes with a string late finish, while there has been a bit of interest in the build-up for the Irish-trained Saltonstall. However, the other interesting one is the Alan King-trained BERINGER (e/w). This 4 year-old ticks a lot of the main trends and from stall 11 will have options to go either way. He’s been running over 1m2f so we can expect connections to make full use of that stamina, while jockey Andrea Atzeni is a top booking. He gets in with just 8-13 in weight – the lowest in the race – while from 11 runs on the turf has finished in the top three 7 times.

 

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