2019 Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Betting Trends & Free Tips

Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Trends

Run at Newbury racecourse over 3m 2 1/2f the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase is handicap race this gives National Hunt fans the chance to see some of the best longer distance chasers pit their wits against horses of varied abilities.

We look back at recent winners and gives you the main stats to look out for ahead of the 2019 renewal – this year run on Saturday 30th November.

Like – Did you know that 15 of the last 17 Ladbrokes Trophy Chase winners were aged 8 or younger?

 

Recent Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Winners

2017 – SIZING TENNESSEE (12/1)
2016 – NATIVE RIVER (7/2 fav)
2015 – SMAD PLACE (7/1)
2014 – MANY CLOUDS (8/1)
2013 – TRIOLO D’ALENE (20/1)
2012 – BOBS WORTH (4/1 fav)
2011 – CARRUTHERS (10/1)
2010 – DIAMOND HARRY (6/1)
2009 – DENMAN (11/4 fav)
2008 – MADISON du BERLAIS (25/1)
2007 – DENMAN (5/1)
2006 – STATE OF PLAY (10/1)
2005 – TRABOLGAN (13/2)
2004 – CELESTIAL GOLD (9/4 fav)
2003 – STRONG FLOW (5/1 jfav)
2002 –  GINGEMBRE (16/1)

Key Ladbrokes Trophy Chase Betting Trends

15/17 – Aged 8 or younger
15/17 – Had won between 2-5 previous races over fences
15/17 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before
13/17 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Finished in the first 3 last time out
13/17 – Carried 10-13 or more
12/17 – Had run at Newbury before (8 had won over fences there)
12/17 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
11/17 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
11/17 – Had won a Grade 3 or better class chase race before
11/17 – Rated between 140 and 151
11/17 – Had a previous run that season
10/17 – Won last time out
10/17 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
9/17 – Unplaced favourites
8/17 – Ran at either Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
6/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/17 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (2 of last 3)
2/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 7)
2/17 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty (2 of last 7)
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 9/1
Since 1968 there has only been one winner aged in double-figures (1981 Diamond Edge, 10)
Since 1990 (28 runnings) there have been 13 winners (48%) aged 7 years-old

Since 1968 there has only been one winner aged in double-figures (1981 Diamond Edge, 10)
Since 1990 (26 runnings) there have been 13 winners (50%) aged 7 years-old

 

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Some decent trends to take into the Ladbroke Trophy. Yes, we saw a 10 year-old win the race last year but with 15 of the last 17 winners aged 8 or younger this is a key stat that knocks out a fair few – including the fancied pair of Ok Corral (9), & West Approach (9), plus Two Taffs (9), Robinsfirth (10), Yala Enki (9), Yorkhill (9), Beware The Bear (9), Joe Farrell (10), Regal Encore (11) and Shantou Village (9). That’s 10 of the 22 runners with a big negative. With 13 of the last 17 also placed in the top three last time out, then of those that remain these are the ones worth keeping on side – Walt, Daklondike, Brave Eagle, The Conditional, Dingo Dollar, Borice, Elegant Escape and Cabaret Queen. The last-named is sure to be popular coming over from the Willie Mullins yard that won this race in 2017. With trainer Colin Tizzard having won 2 of the last 3 runnings then it’s no shock to see him mob-handed again – he’s got Robinsfirth, West Approach, Mister Malarky and Elegant Escape. Of that lot, it’s the last two-named that catch the eye. Jonjo O’Neill Jnr rides Mister Malarky and is able to claim 3lbs – he’ll be a lot fitter for a return run at Ascot and was a top winner at the track last January. However, if this turns into a bit of a slog in the ground then the Tizzard former Welsh National winner – ELEGANT ESCAPE (e/w) – will have the stamina to cope. Yes, it won’t be easy with 11-12 to carry, but he’s got that weight for a reason – he’s the top-rated (160) runner in the field. He’ll be fitter for a recent run at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall Chase (2nd) and ran well to be second in this race 12 months ago. Okay, he’s 5lbs higher this time, but is only 7 years-old and can be expected to still be improving and stronger this season. The first-time blinkers are an extra addition and they could also help eke out a bit more. The Henderson yard are another that have done well in recent years in this race and, like the Tizzard team, have a big hand too. They run Ok Corral, who looks set to go off favourite, plus the likes of On The Blind Side, Beware The Bear and Brave Eagle. Ok Corral is clearly useful on his day, but was last seen flopping in the 4m race at the Cheltenham Festival – albeit getting badly hampered that day. He’s gone well fresh in the past so the lay-off isn’t a worry, but with only 3 chase runs to his name I’d just be worried about his lack of experience – especially in a race like this. His age (9) is also a potential negative when looking at the trends. Of the Henderson runners – Brave Eagle – might be the value. Henderson likes to use James Bowen, so the fact he’s been booked is a plus and having won 4 of his 5 chase starts then he knows how to win. He does, however, have a lot of weight and returns 6lbs higher, so will certainly need a career-best, but could still be on the up. Two Taffs ran well on his return run (3rd) and will be popular too, while last year’s third – Dingo Dollar – is another to note. He’s 2lbs lower than last year and another year older at 7 years-old. But is now 7 races without a win and just feel he’s got a bit to prove. The Conditional gets in with a light weight and is feared, but the other pick is the Emma Lavelle runner DE RASHER COUNTER (e/w). This 7 year-old will be spot-on for this after a return run last time out at Uttoxeter (6th), but is also a proven course winner. With just 6 runs over fences there should be more to come and the booking of Ben Jones to claim 5lbs will help. The horse ticks a lot of the main trends, including age, rating and weight, plus has winning form in ground ranging from good-to-soft right through to heavy.

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