2019 Greatwood Hurdle Betting Trends & Tips

Greatwood Hurdle Trends and Tips

The Greatwood Hurdle, this year, will at the Cheltenham November Meeting and continues to be sponsored by leading bookmaker Unibet.

Run over 2m ½ f on the Old Course the contest gives National Hunt racing fans some early season pointers ahead of the Champion Hurdle, run at Cheltenham at the Festival in March – Rooster Booster (2002) was the last horse to win this race and go onto land that same season’s Champion Hurdle.

Since 1988 the race has been won four times by the Pipe stable, three times by Philip Hobbs and three times, including in 2015, by ex-champion trainer Paul Nicholls.

Here at JUICESTORM we take a look back at recent winners and gives you the key trends to look out for ahead of the 2019 renewal…..this year run on Sunday 17th November.

Recent Greatwood Hurdle Winners

2018 – NIETZSCHE (20/1)
2017 – ELGIN (10/1)
2016 – NORTH HILL HARVEY (6/1)
2015 – OLD GUARD (12/1)
2014 – GARDE LA VICTOIRE (10/1)
2013 – DELL ‘ARCA (12/1)
2012 – OLOFI (8/1)
2011 – BRAMPOUR (12/1)
2010 – MENORAH (6/1)
2009 – KHYBER KIM (9/1)
2008 – NUMIDE (5/1)
2007 – SIZING EUROPE (5/1)
2006 – DETROIT CITY (6/5 fav)
2005 – LINGO (5/1)
2004 – ACCORDION ETOILE (100/30 fav)
2003 – RIGMAROLE (33/1)
2002 – ROOSTER BOOSTER (7/1)

Greatwood Hurdle Betting Trends and Stats

15/17 – Had won a 2m1f (or further) hurdles race before
15/17 – Had won no more than 4 times before over hurdles
14/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/17 – Officially rated 140 or higher
12/17 – Had a recent run (within the last 6 weeks)
12/17 – Finished in the top two last time out
12/17 – Had run at Cheltenham before
11/17 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/17 – Had run 6 or less times over hurdles
9/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or further
8/17 – Carried 11-4 or more
8/17 – Placed favourites
7/17 – Came from the first three in the betting
7/17 – Won their previous race
6/17 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
4/17 – Winners that carried 11-12
4/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/17 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Winning favourites
1/17 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 9/1
6 of the last 10 winners contested the previous season’s Supreme Novices’ or Triumph Hurdle

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Another super-tough renewal of the Greatwood hurdle, but at least some nice trends to take into account. With 14 of the last 17 winners aged 4 or 5, then of the 15 runners this is a negative for the likes of Mohaayed, Countister, Harambe, Benny’s Bridge, Dame De Compagnie and Grapevine. 12 of the last 17 winners had also had a recent run (in last 6 weeks), had run at Cheltenham before too, were rated 140+ and also finished in the first two last time out. With those stats taken into account then three stand out – QUEL DESTIN, GUMBALL and MONSIUER LECOQ – all three are respected. Gumball likes to get on with things from the front and should make a bold bid again, but in this ground, it might be hard to stay there and he only just clung on last time at Ascot – he’s also up 8lbs here. Monsieur Lecoq is a fast-improving hurdler too and will love the ground. He returned with a win at Ffos Las last month in the Welsh Champion Hurdle but is another that is up in the ratings (7lbs higher). I’d also be a tad concerned that one of his only poor runs came here at Cheltenham, when down the field in the County Hurdle last March. So, that leaves QUEL DESTIN. This Paul Nicholls runner won over this CD in heavy ground last month so we know conditions will suit. He also ran well to be 5th in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle here last March and with 6 of the last 10 winners of this race having contested that Festival race, then that’s another good trend in his favour. Of the rest, Harambe, Quoi De Neuf and Humble Hero can have cases made for them, but the Hobbs yard have a fair record in the race too so their ZANZA (e/w) is also worth supporting. Dickie Johnson rides and this 5 year-old caught the eye when winning well at Newbury last time out. He escapes a penalty for that as it came in a conditional jockeys’ race, while with only 8 career runs should have more to come. He’s won on soft ground in the past too and despite not running at Cheltenham yet, he’s won three times at left-handed tracks so that’s a good sign.

 

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