Run over 1m4f the Epsom Oaks is the third of the five English Classics to be run each season and is for 3 year-old fillies.
Did you know that 11 of the last 17 winners came from stall 5 or higher?
Here at JUICESTORM we take a look back at recent winners and highlight the key trends and trainer stats ahead of the 2019 Epsom race – this year run on Friday 31st May 2019.
Recent Epsom Oaks Winners
2018 – Forever Together (7/1)
2017 – Enable (6/1)
2016 – Minding (10/11 fav)
2015 – Qualify (50/1)
2014 – Taghrooda (5/1)
2013 – Talent (20/1)
2012 – Was (20/1)
2011 – Dancing Rain (20/1)
2010 – Snow Fairy (9/1)
2009 – Sariska (9/4 fav)
2008 – Look Here (33/1)
2007 – Light Shift (13/2)
2006 – Alexandrova (9/4 fav)
2005 – Eswarah (11/4 jfav)
2004 – Ouija Board (7/2)
2003 – Casual Look (10/1)
2002 – Kazzia (10/3 fav)
Epsom Oaks Betting Trends
17/17 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
14/17 – Horses from stall 1 that were unplaced
14/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/17 – Won from stall 5 or higher
11/17 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
11/17 – Favourites that were placed
9/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Won by the favourite (1 joint)
5/17 – Returned a double-figure price
5/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
5/17 – Irish-trained winners
4/17 – Ran in the English 1,000 Guineas
2/17 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/17 – Trained by John Gosden
2/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
0/17 – Had run at the course before
0/17 – Had run over 1m4f before
7 of the last 12 favourites were unplaced
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race 7 times
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 12/1
Kazzia (2002) and Minding (2016) were the last horses to win both the 1,000 Guineas and Epsom Oaks
The horse from stall 2 has been placed in 7 of the last 15 runnings
Epsom Oaks – The fillies’ Classic this year will actually be run on the final day of May (Friday 31st). Last year we saw Aidan O’Brien land the prize for staggering seventh time, but – did you know….. he’s still some way off the haul of trainer Robert Robson, who won thirteen Epsom Oaks prices in the 1800’s – Wow!
So, what are the trends saying ahead of the 2019 renewal?
Stable Diet – I’ve already touched on the excellent record of trainer Aidan O’Brien – he’ll be looking for his eighth success in the race this year so, it goes without saying, anything he runs should always be respected. The Ballydoyle maestro is sure to be mob-handed again – last year he had five of the nine runners. Top tip – don’t always discount his bigger-priced runners as he’s had a 50/1 and 20/1 winners in the last seven years.
Of the rest, with two wins in the last 11 runnings, the Ralph Beckett yard are also always worth a second look, while the John Gosden camp have won two of the last five runnings too.
Fitness First – One of the main stats to take into the race is that ALL of the last 17 winners had run in the last five weeks, so having a recent run is always something to look for. Plus, with 14 of the last 17 Epsom Oaks winners having finished in the top two last time out then not only having had a recent run, but a good ‘recent run’ is key.
Draw Advantage? With the Epsom Oaks run over 1m4f then many will feel the draw won’t be that important. However, if the stats are anything to go by, this hasn’t been the case in recent years. 11 of the last 17 winners came from stalls 5 or higher. Yes, last year’s winner – Together Forever – kicked that trend into touch as she won from stall 3, but overall a 65% return is still a fair return. 14 of the last 17 horses from stall 1 have also been unplaced – however, don’t discount horses from stall 2 as seven of the last 15 (47%) have been placed.
Other trends to look for – Having winning form over at least 1m2f in the past is something else to look for – 11 of the last 17 tick this stat – while in terms of the market leaders it seems to be a race favourites do do well in and punters get right more often than not. 29% of the last 17 favourites have won – which is not a bad return, while 11 of the last 17 jollies have finished in the frame.
9 of the last 17 (53%) won last time out, while even though many feel the 1,000 Guineas is a good guide, we’ve only seen Minding (2016) and Kazzia (2002) in recent times land both races – in fact, only 4 of the last 17 Oaks winners ran in that earlier Newmarket Classic.
Plenty to get stuck into and hopefully these trends will help once we know the final runners – but with the O’Brien yard having already won the both this season’s Guineas then Oaks win number eight looks a distinct possibility this year.
JUICESTORM VERDICT: Trainer Aidan O’Brien will be eyeing up another Epsom Oaks win – he’s won it seven times in total. He’s got four in the field but his Pink Dogwood is their main hope. This 3 year-old has been all the rage for this after her easy Listed win at Navan last time out and now stepping up in trip looks sure to progress again. Breeding suggests he wants this trip and it will be a shock if he’s not involved. However, there looks to be some strong opposition too. The Haggas runner Maqsad was an easy winner of the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes at HQ last time over 1m2f and can go well if getting the longer trip, while the Gosden yard have a good shout too with Anapurna and MEHDAAYIH in the race. The former landed the Oaks trial at Lingfield by an easy 6 lengths and based on that will be popular. However, I was more taken with the manner of Mehdaayih’s win at Chester in the Cheshire Oaks. She travelled well that day and showed a good turn-of-foot to win by just over 4 lengths and should have more to come. She showed that day she can handle a unique track and is also one of the few in the race that is proven over this sort of trip – that win was over 1m3 1/2 f. Of the rest, you can’t totally rule out the other O’Brien runners – Peach Tree, Fleeting and Delphina – as they’ve won this race with big-priced runners in the past. Manuela De Vega is another to consider as she comes from the Beckett yard that have done well in the race in recent years too. While it’s interesting that the shrewd Dermot Weld yard send over TARBAWA (e/w). She’s won two of her last three races and could have more to offer now upped in trip. She was only 1 ¾ lengths behind Pink Dogwood two runs ago but looks to have improved from that after winning well at Naas since. She’s a much bigger price and actually doesn’t have much to find on the official ratings with the main players.
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