2019 Cheltenham Festival Betting Trends & Tips: DAY FOUR

2019 Cheltenham Festival Free Tips

Each day of the 2019 Cheltenham Festival horse racing trends expert Andy Newton will give you his quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

Did you know that 15 of the last 19 Cheltenham Gold Cup winners ran in the Savills Chase or King George earlier that season?

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2019 Cheltenham Festival for you……………………………………



Friday 15th March 2019


13:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle   2m 1f

2018 Winner: FARCLAS (9/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Jack Kennedy


  • 19 of the last 25 winners won last time out
  • Irish have won 4 of the last 6 runnings
  • French-breds have filled 9 of the last 12 places (last 4 runnings)
  • 11 of the last 14 came from the top 4 in the betting
  • Respect Henderson (6 winners), Nicholls, and King-trained runners
  • 7 of the last 15 first ran over hurdles by November (5 of the last 7 by mid-Nov)
  • 10 of the last 13 winners returned 13/2 or shorter
  • The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide
  • 6 of the last 10 winners had run in France before
  • Nicky Henderson has trained 6 winners of the race


  • Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
  • Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
  • Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
  • Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 11

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Paul Nicholls pair of Quel Destin and Pic D’Orhy should go well, as can Adjali, who comes from the Nicky Henderson yard that often do well in this race (6 winners). However, it’s hard not to have been impressed with the Joseph O’Brien-trained SIR EREC this season. He slammed his stablemate – Gardens Of Babylon – in the Grade Spring Juvenile at Leopardstown last month. This former 100+ rated flat performer has brought plenty of class to his hurdling game and that proven flat speed has been a huge asset for him so far. In a race that lacks depth he’s taken to give his popular owner – JP McManus – another bit of glory in this final day opener.

14:10 Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle   2m 1f

2018 Winner: MOHAAYED (33/1)
Trainer – Dan Skelton
Jockey – Bridget Andrews


  • The Irish have won 8 of the last 12 runnings
  • 4 of the last 11 winners ran in that season’s Coral.ie Hurdle (Leopardsotwn)
  • The last 13 winners were rated in the 130’s
  • 7 of the last 11 winners returned 20/1 or bigger
  • 5 of the last 10 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
  • 10 of the last 13 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 11 of the last 13 winners were priced in double-figures
  • 11 of the last 15 winners began their careers on the flat
  • Look for Mullins, Martins & Nicholls-trained runners
  • Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
  • Ruby Walsh has ridden 4 winners in the last 15 years
  • 10 of the last 18 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 13 of the last 15 winners were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
  • 10 of the last 12 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • Paul Nicholls is 4 from 27 (+19pts)
  • Willie Mullins is 4 from 30 (+49pts)


  • Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
  • Since 1960 only 4 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
  • Since 1961, only 8 winners had run at the Festival before
  • Since 2005 134 runners rated 140+ have lost
  • Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
  • Avoid horses making their handicap debuts

JUICESTORM VERDICT: If running, all eyes here will be on the Paul Nicholls-trained MALAYA, who will be chasing the £100k bonus after winning last Saturday’s Imperial Cup at Sandown. The last horse to achieve the feat was Gaspara in 2007 and since the bonus was put up three horses have managed it. Nicholls has a good record in the race too, with 4 wins from 27, including wins in 2009 and 2014. He carries a 5lb penalty for that but did it nicely to suggest there is more to come and even though there will be only 6 days between the races he still gets in with just 10st 7lbs to carry and must have every chance on what will be his debut run at the track. Nicholls is sure to have a few others in the race too, so don’t discount these, while Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton are other yards that have had decent success in this race in the past so look for their entries – Skelton won the race last year with Mohaayed, who could be lining-up again, plus he could also run the 146-rated Ch’tibello. Crooks Peak and the Gary Moore-trained Ar Mest, who ran well to be fifth in the Betfair Hurdle last time are others to note.

14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle   3m

2018 Winner: KILBRICKEN STORM (33/1)
Trainer – Colin Tizzard
Jockey – Harry Cobden


  • 9 of the last 14 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
  • 8 of the last 14 came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 9 of the last 14 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
  • 12 of the last 14 had run in a race over 3m
  • 11 of the last 13 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 12 of the last 13 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 4 of the last 13 favourites won


  • Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
  • Avoid horses that DIDN’T finish 1st or 2nd last time out
  • Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles
  • Willie Mullins is 1 from 32 in the race
  • Only 3 of the last 14 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Not a great race for trainer Willie Mullins, with just 1 win from 32, but with 11 of the last 13 winners aged 6 or 7 this is a decent trend. This knocks out the leading 5 year-olds Commander Of Fleet and Birchdale, but is better news for Dickie Diver and LISNAGER OSCAR. The last-named has won his last two in great fashion and has also run well at the track this season too. Jockey Sean Bowen is 2-from-2 on him too and after being stepped up again to 3m last time in a decent Grade Two at Haydock, that looked to bring out more improvement. He also beat Dickie Diver, albeit just a head, at Chepstow in January and even though Barry Geraghty has picked Birchdale over the Dickie I suspect it might not have been an easy choice and these jockeys don’t always get it right.


15:30 Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase   3m 2½f

2018 Winner: NATIVE RIVER (5/1)
Trainer – Colin Tizzard
Jockey – Richard Johnson


  • 15 of the last 19 winners ran in the Lexus or King George that season
  • 16 of the last 18 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 13 of the last 18 had won or placed 2nd at the Festival before
  • 16 of the last 18 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
  • 17 of the last 18 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
  • 10 of the last 11 winners ran 3 or less times that season
  • 16 of the last 22 winners were bred in Ireland
  • 10 of the last 13 winners won last time out
  • 5 of the last 13 favourites won
  • ALL of the last 19 winners were aged 9 or younger


  • Non Grade One winners have a poor record
  • No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 70)
  • Horses rated 166 or less are only 4 from last 24
  • Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season (0 from 80)
  • Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record
  • Willie Mullins is yet to win the race, 0 from 26 (had last 4 of the last 6 seconds though)
  • Just 1 of the last 11 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
  • Horses that were beaten in their 1st Gold Cup are 1 from 67 when running again

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Last year’s hero, Native River will be looking to become the first horse since Best Mate to retain his Cheltenham Gold Cup crown and being the joint top-rated in the field he’s got every chance of following up. However, he’s not won since that epic battle with Might Bite 12 months ago so it remains to be seen if that race has left a mark. He was third in the King George, but beaten 13 lengths, but saying that any rain this week will be a plus for him. He’s yet to finish out of the top three from 15 runs over fences so he looks sure to be in the mix again. Presenting Percy landed the RSA Chase last season here – he’s a lightly-raced sort and has actually only run once since that Festival win last year. That also came over hurdles so he’s not jumped a fence in public for a year. Any rain is a big bonus but it’s interesting that horses rated 166 or less (he’s 165) are only 4 from 24. The King George winner CLAN DES OBEAUX, therefore gets the nod. This Paul Nicholls runner has improved bundles this season and showed that Christmas win was no fluke when landing Denman Chase (run at Ascot this year) last month. He’s the joint top-rated in the field but at just 7 years-old could even have more to come. He’s run well at the track in the past too and won’t mind it if the ground gets softer – he ticks a lot of boxes. Of the rest, Kemboy will be looking to give trainer Willie Mullins his first success in this race and after landing the Savills Chase at Leopardstown back in December – beating Monalee – then he’s another big improver this season. He was fourth in the JLT Novices’ here last season too and acts on all ground. His inexperience might be against him but he could also have a lot more to come and could be dangerous. For me, Might Bite has fallen out of love with the game and despite being a talented horse there is a chance last year’s battle has sent him over the edge – even though Native River proven this stat wrong, it’s still worth noting that horses that were beaten in their first Gold Cup are just 1 from 67. Of those at bigger prices I expect the Tizzard other runners – Elegant Escape and Thistlecrack – to both run well. The pair fit a fair few of the main trends and don’t forget Thistlecrack wasn’t beaten far behind Clan Des Obeaux in the King George this season. Road To Respect and Bellshill are two other leading hopes for Ireland and both certainly have the form to have a say too.


16:10 St James’ Place Foxhunter Chase   3m 2½f

2018 Winner: PACHA DU POLDER (25/1)
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Miss Harriet Tucker


  • 25 of the last 28 winners were aged under 11 years-old
  • 24 of the last 33 won last time out
  • 7 of the last 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
  • 26 of the last 30 started out in point-to-point races
  • 11 of the last 13 winners ran 34 days or less ago
  • Respect the Irish runners (won 6 of last 8)
  • 5 of the last 7 winners ran in the Leopardstown Inn Hunters’ Chase
  • 9 of the last 13 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
  • 7 of the last 10 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
  • 10 of the last 11 winners finished in the top 3 last time out


  • Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
  • Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
  • 26 of the last 27 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost
  • Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers
  • Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
  • Horses aged 11+ are just 4 from 221 since 1990

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Can PACHA DU POLDER win this race for a third year? Well it won’t be easy at the age of 12 now, but he must have every chance with Nicholls having this contest as a target all season. He warmed-up with a recent fifth and should be spot on for it. Yes, based on the trends, his age is against him but his excellent course form and proven ability to win this race makes him hard to leave out of calculations. Top Wood was second last season so commands respect too, while the horse that beat Pacha Du Polder last time – Road To Rome – is sure to be popular with Sam Waley Cohen in the saddle. Stand Up And Fight has been supported too, but there are a few trends that he falls down on so at the price he doesn’t look much value to me. Ucello Conto, Wonderful Charm and Hazel Hill are others to have on your radar, but proven course winner – SHANTOU FLYER – looks worthy of support too. He’s won his last two in very good fashion, plus was an excellent second in the Ultima Chase here last season. In fact, his form at the track is second-to-none, 1-F-1-4-2-2-2. At just 9 years-old he’s one of the younger ones in the race and jockey David Maxwell is certainly one of the more experienced in the race.


16:50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase   2m ½f

2018 Winner: LE PREZIEN (15/2)
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Barry Geraghty


  • 15 of the last 19 winners carried 11st or less
  • 13 of the last 15 winners had run at the Festival before
  • 7 of the last 15 winners ran in the previous renewal
  • Irish have won 3 of the last 6 runnings
  • 7 of the last 9 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • 10 of the last 15 winners were aged 8 or older
  • Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
  • Keep the Irish horses on your side (won 3 of the last 6)
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 8 placed)
  • The last 8 winners were rated at least 138
  • 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
  • Novices have won 5 of the last 10 runnings
  • 6 of the last 8 winners were rated between 140-147
  • 6 of the last 8 winners carried 10-11 or more in weight
  • 18 of the last 19 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences


  • Horses aged 10+ are just 1 win from the last 23 runnings
  • Horses that last ran 45 days or more ago have seen just six winners since 1990
  • Last time out winners are just 1 from last 13
  • Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 27 since 2005
  • Just 2 winners rated 147+ since 1992
  • Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The last horse to win the Grand Annual back-to-back was in 1958-59, so if lining-up here last year’s winner Le Prezien will be looking to achieve that feat. He’s only a pound higher than 12 months ago and should be spot-on for this after a recent run at Sandown. He’s certainly one for the shortlist. Nicholls, who trains Le Prezien and has won 2 of the last 3 runnings, could also have the 149-rated Magic Saint, who won well last time, and the 136-rated Brelan D’As, but with 6 of the last 8 winners rated between 140 and 147 has this trend against him. One horse that doesn’t though is the Nicky Henderson-trained WHATSWRONGWITHYOU. Rated 145, this 8 year-old chaser has won his last two and it goes without saying this is a race the trainer loves to win, being it’s named in honour of his father. Henderson has won the race in 2006 and 2012, and despite being 10lbs higher than this last success there looks likely to be more to come from his runner here. Not Another Muddle, Caid Du Lin and Ex Patriot are others to note.

17:30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle   2m 4½f

2018 Winner: BLOW BY BLOW (11/1)
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Donagh Meyler


  • 9 of the last 10 winners were 2nd season-hurdlers
  • Irish have won 5 of the last 8 (all making handicap debuts)
  • 28 of the 30 win and place horses were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
  • Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
  • 8 of the 10 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
  • 5 of the 10 winners won last time out
  • 7 of the 10 winners were rated 133-139
  • 7 of the 10 winners returned at a double-figure price (8 of the last 10 were 16/1 or less)
  • 5 and 6 year-old have won 9 of last 10 runnings
  • Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
  • Willie Mullins is 3 from 14 runners in the race (won 3 of the last 8 runnings)
  • Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (4 winners, 3 places)
  • Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 6 years


  • Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 19, inc 3 favs)
  • Just 1 winning fav in the 10 year history (7/9 returned in double-figures)
  • Horses in headgear are currently 1 from 48
  • Only 2 winners have previous Festival experience

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Moved to the final race at the Festival for the first time this year. It’s one that the Gigginstown House Stud love to target – they’ve won the pot four times since 2011 and for the last two years. Willie Mullins has three wins since 2011 too, while Paul Nicholls has two successes in the last six. We can expect Mullins to have a strong hand again, while it’s worth noting that 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old. Going back to the Gigginstown runners, their main hope looks to be DALLAS DES PICTONS, who heads here on a three-timer and could be destined for bigger and better things. He kept on well to win a competitive race at Leopardstown last time out – a race that would have taught him a lot. The GHS camp could also have DEFI BLEU and Éclair De Beaufeu in the race, so if making the line-up these two can’t be ruled out either – they will both certainly be better value than Dallas. Of the rest, Style De Garde ran well at the Festival last season (2nd Fred Winter) so if running here would be respected too, as would another Gordon Elliott runner – Cartwright – who despite not having eye-catching recent form does fit a few tasty trends.


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