2018 Lockinge Stakes Free Tips and Trends

Newbury horse racing trends

The Lockinge Stakes is a Group One race staged at Newbury racecourse and run over a distance of 1 mile.

First run in 1958 the contest is for 3 year-olds and older horses and has been won 4 times in the last 8 years by the Richard Hannon yard. In recent years the race has also been dominated by 4 year-olds, with 11 of the last 15 runnings going to horses in that age group, while 13 of the last 15 winners hailed from the first three in the betting.

Here at JUICESTORM we look back at past winners of the race, plus are on-hand with all the key ahead of the 2018 renewal – this year run on Saturday 19th May.

 

Recent Lockinge Stakes Winners

2017 – RIBCHESTER (7/4 fav)
2016 – BELARDO (8/1)
2015 – NIGHT OF THUNDER (11/4 jfav)
2014 – OLYMPIC GLORY (11/8 fav)
2013 – FARHH (10/3)
2012 – FRANKEL (2/7 fav)
2011 – CANFORD CLIFFS (4/5 fav)
2010 – PACO BOY (8/11 fav)
2009 – VIRTUAL (6/1)
2008 – CREACHADOIR (3/1 fav)
2007 – RED EVIE (8/1)
2006 – PEERESS (4/1)
2005 – RAKTI (7/4 fav)
2004 – RUSSIAN RHYTHM (3/1 fav)
2003 – HAWK WING (2/1 fav)

Lockinge Stakes Betting Trends

15/15 – Won over a mile before
13/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Had won a Group One race before
12/15 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Had won at least 4 times before
11/15 – Aged 4 years-old
10/15 – Having their first run of the season
10/15 – Winning favourites
9/15 – Unplaced last time out
4/15 – Won by the Richard Hannon yard (Has won the race 5 times in all)
3/15 – Won by a mare
3/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/15 – Won by a Cheveley Park stud-owned horse (won it 5 times in all)
2/15 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute (has won the race 7 times in all)
0/15 – Winners from stall 1 or 2
The last Aidan O’Brien-trained winner was Hawk Wing (2003)
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 3/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Onto the big weekend race and the first thing to note here is that we’ve not seen a winner aged 7 or older since 1958! With that in mind, the likes of Suedois and Lightning Spear, who are both 7 year-old, are overlooked. In contrast, 4 year-olds have by far the best recent records too – winning 11 of the last 15. Of the 16 runners 50% (8) are 4 year-olds – Accidental Agent, Addeybb, Alexios Komnenos, Beat The Bank, Lahore, Lancaster Bomber, War Decree and Rhododendron. The last three-named all hail from the powerful Aidan O’Brien yard but it’s interesting, and slightly surprising, that the Ballydoyle camp have not won this since Hawk Wing flew home in 2003! Rhododendron looks their main hope and also gets a handy 3lbs fillies allowance from the rest. She is the pick of Ryan Moore and was a Group One winner of the Prix de l’Opera in France last October. However, I’m not sure the drop back to a mile will suit and has actually only won 1 of her last seven. She’s also got draw 2 and we’ve not seen a winner from stall 1 or 2 in the last 15 years. I’m happy to look elsewhere. Limato will be popular and at a rating of 119 is the joint-highest in the field with Librisa Breeze and Deauville but he’s been beaten both times he’s tried a mile and is another that is often fancied for these big races but seems to just fall short. He’s won just 1 of his last 6 and the last 9 times he’s been sent off favourite he’s actually been beaten 6 times. Zabeel Prince looks an improver from the Roger Varian yard after an easy Listed win at Doncaster back in March. This is a big step up but he deserves his chance and having won 4 of his last 5 can’t be ruled out. However, the two I like here are BEAT THE BANK and ADDEYBB, who are both improving 4 year-olds. Beat The Bank won three on the spin last summer and can probably be forgiven his flop on Champions Day at Ascot last October. That was his 6th race of the season and he also lost all chance by pulling too hard. Prior to that he dotted up by 5 lengths in the in the Group Two Shadwell Stakes at Newmarket and on that form would go close. He’s gone well fresh in the past so the 210 day break is fine and Jim Crowley is a plus in the saddle. Addeybb is the other horse that risen up the ranks this season. He’s already landed the Lincoln in easy fashion and followed-up in the Group Two Bet365 Mile last time at Sandown. This is a step up to the top level but he’s a horse that’s done nothing wrong this season and looks likely to take the step up in class in his stride. James Doyle rides and the Haggas camp boast an impressive 26% record at the track with their 4 year-olds. Those against him will look to this being the quickest ground he’s encountered so far but he’s won on a good surface so I’m not too concerned about that, while off a rating of 117 he’s already right in the thick of things with the other big players in this field so doesn’t look to have much to find.

=====================================================================

Trainers Quotes

TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST STABLE INFO FROM 20 TOP YARDS EACH DAY
Sent direct to your in-box!
**MORE HERE **

Comments