2018 July Cup Betting Trends and Free Tips

July Cup Trends and Tips

The July Cup is a Group One contest is run over 6f at Newmarket racecourse and is one of the highlights for the best sprinters all around the world each year.

Run on the final day of the three-day Newmarket July Meeting the race is worth around £225,000 to the winner.

We take a look back at the recent winners, and give you some key trends ahead of the 2018 renewal, this year run on Saturday 14th July.

Did you know 15 of the last 16 July Cup winners were aged 5 or younger?

 

Recent July Cup Winners

2017 – Harry Angel (9/2)
2016 – Limato (9/2 fav)
2015     Muhaarar (2/1 jfav)
2014     Slade Power (7/4 fav)
2013     Lethal Force (9/2)
2012     Mayson (20/1)
2011      Dream Ahead (7/1)
2010      Starspangledbanner (2/1 fav)
2009      Fleeting Spirit (12/1)
2008      Marchand d’Or (5/2 fav)
2007      Sakhee’s Secret (9/2)
2006      Les Arcs (10/1)
2005      Pastoral Pursuits (22/1)
2004      Frizzante (14/1)
2003      Oasis Dream (9/2)
2002      Continent (12/1)

July Cup Betting Trends


15/16 – Aged 5 or younger
14/16 – Had won over 6f before
13/16 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
13/16 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Won by a horse trained in the UK
13/16 – Had between 1-3 previous runs that season
12/16 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before
10/16 – Placed last time out
9/16 – Ran last time out in either the King’s Stand Stakes or Diamond Jubilee
8/16 – Unplaced favourites
6/16 – Won their previous race
5/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained By Hughie Morrison
2/16 – Irish-trained winners
1/16 – French-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 8/1
Just one horse aged older than 5 has won since 1968
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 3 times before (1999, 2001 & 2010)

 

A great renewal of this Group One. Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race three times in the past, with the last of those coming in 2010. He’s mob-handed again this year with five of the 14 runners – Sioux Nation, Intelligence Cross, Fleet Review, Spirit Of Valour and U S Navy Flag. The last-named is the mount of Ryan Moore so is sure to be popular but really based on the ratings there is not a lot between them all. BRANDO was an excellent third in the race 12 months ago and can be expected to be bang-there again – he looks to be fair each-way value. Dreamfield was well-touted for the Wokingham Stakes last time when backed into 2/1 fav for that 28 runner race. He only just failed too (neck) so can’t be ruled out on just his fifth career run here, but this is a leap up from handicap company into the highest level. Limato was the 2016 winner of this race so commands respect but he hasn’t quite looked the same horse this season and has a bit to prove. The pluses for him though in the drop in trip after not really staying 7f and a mile that he’s been running over and he was a fine runner-up in the race last year too – ignore him at your peril. Redkirk Warrior adds an International feel to the race, but this Aussie raider flopped in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes here last month and despite being a multiple Group One winner Down Under does have a bit to prove on these shores. Eqtidaar won the Commonwealth Cup last time at Ascot so that Group One winning form makes him a big player here too. He held SANDS OF MALI that day by ½ a length but there is every reason to think the second can reverse that form. The Fahey horse was running on really well in the closing stages but hung right in the closing stages too. He’s a 3 year-old that has a decent record over this 6f trip and will also improve his chance by getting 6lbs from the older horses in the race. Blue Point is the final one to note and looks set to go off favourite. He landed the King’s Stand at Ascot last time – beating the classy Battaash that day. He’s won over this extra furlong in the past too and is sure to be in the shake-up. My only niggle is that he’s only backed-up a win with another once in his career and that was during his 2 year-old days – in fact, on his first two ever starts.

 

 

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