2018 Haydock Grand National Trial Betting Trends & Free Tips

Haydock Grand National Trial Trends

The Grade Three Grand National Trial Chase is staged at Haydock racecourse each year and provides racing fans with further clues ahead of the Grand National. That said, the race is all but a trial in name as since 1980 we’ve not seen a winner of the Betfred Grand National Trial follow-up that season in the Aintree marathon –  Suny Bay, the 1997 winner, did go onto finish second at Liverpool in the National. The 2005 winner, Forest Gunner, went onto run a respectable fifth, while last season we saw the David Pipe-trained Vieux Lion Rouge win this trial before going onto finished a respectable sixth in the Grand National a few months later.

Here at JUICESTORM we look back at recent winners and gives you the key stats to take in the 2018 renewal – this year set to be run on Saturday February 17th.

Recent Haydock Grand National Trial Winners

2017 – VIEUX LION ROUGE (8/1)
2016 – BISHOPS ROAD (13/2)
2015 – LIE FORRIT (8/1)
2014 – RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE (16/1)
2013 – WELL REFRESHED (9/2 fav)
2012 – GILES CROSS (4/1 fav)
2011 – SILVER BY NATURE (10/1)
2010 – SILVER BY NATURE (7/1)
2009 – RAMBLING MINSTER (18/1)
2008 – MIKO DE BEAUCHENE (17/2)
2007 – HELTORNIC (12/1)
2006 – OSSMOSES (14/1)
2005 – FOREST GUNNER (12/1)
2004 – JURANCON II (10/1)
2003 –  SHOTGUN WILLY (10/1)

Haydock Grand National Trial Betting Trends

15/15 – UK-based trained winners
15/15 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences (rules) before
13/15 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/15 – Finished in the top three last time out
13/15 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences (rules) before
12/15 – Aged 10 or younger
11/15 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
11/15 – Aged 9 or younger
11/15 – Finished in the top two last time out
11/15 – Rated 135 or higher
10/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
9/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/15 – Carried 11-0 or less
8/15 – Won last time out
7/15 – Unplaced favourites
7/15 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
6/15 – Irish-bred winners
4/15 – Winners that won by exactly 15 lengths
4/15 – Ran in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/15 – Won with 11-12 in weight
3/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/15 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
2/15 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 10/1

 

The Grade Three Haydock Grand National Trial – this year run on Saturday 17th – is really a trial in name only as we’ve yet to see a winner land both races. Yes, the mighty Red Rum took this race in 1975, but that was one of the years the National eluded the great horse.

Suny Bay, the 1997 winner, did go onto finish second at Liverpool in the National though, while the 2005 winner – Forest Gunner – went onto run a respectable fifth. Last season we also saw the David Pipe-trained Vieux Lion Rouge win this trial before going onto finished a respectable sixth in the Grand National a few months later so it’s still a race to look back on come April.

So, what are the main trends to take into the race?

With ALL of the last 15 winners hailing from UK-based yards then the Irish stables tend to avoid this one, but with three wins since 2010 then last year’s Grand National winning yard of Lucinda Russell is always one to note.

Trainers David Pipe, Kerry Lee, Venetia Williams, Gary Moore, Paul Nicholls, Michael Scudamore and Nigel Twiston-Davies are also winners of this race since 2001 so if having runners command respect too.

It goes without saying horses with proven for over 3m+ have done well in the past, but it’s slightly more interesting that ALL of the last 15 winners had only won between 2-4 times previously over fences. This suggests the and-and-coming younger horses are worth a second glance.

This is backed-up with 15 of the last 20 winners aged 9 or younger, while the last horse aged older than 11 to win was way back in 1958. With 9 of the last 12 winners were aged between 7-9 years-old this is the clear age bracket to focus on.

Also look for horses coming here off the back of a good recent run, as 13 of the last 15 (87%) winners were placed in the top three in their most recent outing. While if you want to take this particular trend a step further then 11 of the last 15 winners actually finished first or second last time out!

11 of the last 15 winners had also raced in the last seven weeks and were rated 135 or higher, while 67% of the last 15 winners came from outside the top three in the betting market.

With just two winning favourites in the last 15 years too then it’s been a race for the bookmakers in recent years and with 60% of the last 15 winners returning a double-figure price then don’t be afraid to take on the more fancied runners.

Looking at weight carried, then with 9 of the last 15 winners lumping 11-0 or less to victory this is another fairly strong trend to note. However, also be aware that we’ve also seen 3 of the last 15 winners carry a massive 11-12 to victory to suggest the top-weights shouldn’t be overlooked either.

Horses that ran in the Welsh National last time out (Sat 6th Jan) are also worth looking at with 4 of the last 15 contesting that Chepstow race in the same season – with 3 of the last 15 winners of this actually finishing first or second in that contest.

So, yes, if past runnings are anything to go on, we are very unlikely to see the winner go onto glory in the Aintree Grand National in a few months. It also remains to be seen how long the race continues to have the tag ‘Grand National Trial’, but it’s still a fascinating contest to watch, with plenty of old staying favourites on show, and you never know – the stats are always there to be broken, so is this the year we see a horse land both races?

OddsMonkey
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