2018 Cotswold Chase Free Tips & Trends

Cheltenham Free Racing Tips

Run at Cheltenham racecourse – normally in the third week of January at their Trials Meeting – the BetBright Cotswold Chase is run over a trip of 3m 1 ½ furlongs. The race is deemed as another Cheltenham Gold Cup trial, but maybe only in name as the last horse to land both races in the same season was Master Oats back in 1995.

Here at JuiceStorm we take a look back at past winners of the BetBright Cotswold Chase and give you all the stats that mater ahead of the 2018 renewal – this year run on Saturday 27th January.

Cotswold Chase Past Winners

2017 – Many Clouds (8/1)
2016 – Smad Place (9/2)
2015 – Many Clouds (4/1)
2014 – The Giant Bolster (6/1)
2013 – Cape Tribulation (7/1)
2012 – Midnight Chase (11/2)
2011 – Neptune Collonges (11/2)
2010 – Taranis (16/1)
2009 – Joe Lively (11/1)
2008 – Knowhere (16/1)
2007 – Exotic Dancer (6/1)
2006 – See You Sometime (18/1)
2005 – Grey Abbey (10/3)
2004 – Jair Du Cochet (11/4)

Cotswold Chase Betting Trends

14/14 – Officially rated 151 or higher
13/14 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
13/14 – Ran at Cheltenham over fences before (8 had won)
13/14 – Ran over at least 3m before (fences)
12/14 – Won between 2-6 times over fences
10/14 – Ran at either Wetherby (3), Cheltenham (3) or Kempton (4) last time
10/14 – Went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (no winners, all placed 8th or better)
10/14 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
9/14 – Priced 6/1 or less
8/14 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
8/14 – Placed favourites
7/14 – Unplaced last time out
6/14 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
5/14 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the market
5/14 – Won by a French-bred horse
5/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (4 wins in total)
2/14 – Won by the Oliver Sherwood yard
1/14 – Went onto win the Grand National (Many Clouds, 2015)
0/14 – Favourites
9 of the last 10 winners were aged 9 or 10 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 8/1
Looks Like Trouble (2000) was the last winner to go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup

 

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A cracking renewal of this Grade 2 Chase and really based on the official ratings it looks Bristol De Mai’s race to lose. He’s rated 167, which is the clear top-rated in the line-up and will also love the soft conditions – but, as we all know, it doesn’t always pan-out as the ratings suggest. Don’t forget Bristol heads here after flopping in the King George (6th) on Boxing Day so does have a bit to prove to his loyal supporters. I’d also be a tad worried that he’s yet to win here at Cheltenham – so is he just one of those horses that doesn’t act here? He was 7th in the Gold Cup last season, but to his credit did run well in the 2016 JLT Novices’ Chase to be second, so the jury is still probably out on the track front. Yes, he’s the one to beat and it will be great for the Gold Cup picture to see him bounce back here, but with a few question marks, and poor value, it might be better to look for some each-way value. It’s also worth pointing out that at the time of writing the Twiston-Davies camp, who train Bristol, are just 2 from 27. Tea For Two was third in the King George so based on recent runs has the measure of Bristol De Mai here and a case can be made for him. He’s a horse that has taken some big scalps over the years and was just 3 lengths behind Might Bite last time – if the King George winner was in this race he’d surely be favourite! However, it is worth noting that the time before Bristol De Mai slammed Two For Two by 67 lengths in the Betfair Chase. The 2015 Gold Cup hero – Coneygree – is also entered, but at 11 years-old he doesn’t look the same horse after being pulled-up the last twice and although it would be great to see him win it will also be a brave man that backs him based on what he’s shown this season. You feel The Last Samuri will love conditions and will be staying on at the death, but this is probably just another stepping stone towards another tilt at the Grand National. American was a big talking horse of last season and was well-fancied for the RSA Chase last season. In the end though he missed that Festival race in preference for Uttoxeter a few days later and maybe it was the right decision after wining by 8 lengths that day. He’s since been pulled up in the Ladbrokes Gold Trophy (Hennessy), but the softer ground and smaller field make him a lot more interesting here. He gets 4lbs from Bristol De Mai and having had just four runs over fences there could be more to come from this Harry Fry-trained runner, who have their horses in decent order at the moment. DEFINITLY RED (E/W) is another that punters looking to take on the favourite will latch onto. Okay, he’s got a bit to find with Bristol based on his third in the Charlie Hall, but has since won well at Aintree and is a horse that looks to be coming to the boil. Connections might have one eye on the National again, but he goes well here that will certainly give them a few other options – namely the Gold Cup at the Festival. He’s a proven course winner here, albeit in a NH Flat race, but loves soft ground and has finished in the top three in 9 of his 12 chase starts. Yes, he’s 8lbs to find on the official ratings with the favourite, but with 10 of the last 14 winners aged 9 or 10 years-old then this Brian Ellison stayer has that age trend over the 7 year-old favourite and, for me, looks the each-way value in a cracking renewal.

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