Run over 6f, the Ayr Gold Cup is a handicap race open to horses aged 3 or older and staged at Ayr racecourse. The line-up is put together from the highest-rated horses entered, with the maximum number of runners currently standing at 27 – any horses that don’t make the race are offered the chance to run in the consolation races – the Ayr Silver and Bronze Cups. Did you know since 1980 we’ve seen just 2 winning favourites?
Here at JuiceStorm we take a look back at recent winners and gives you the key trends to look out for ahead of the 2018 renewal – this year run on Saturday 22nd September.
Recent Ayr Gold Cup Winners
2017 – Donjuan Triumphant (13/2)
2016 – Brando (11/1)
2015 – Don’t Touch (6/1 fav)
2014 – Louis The Pious (10/1)
2013 – Highland Colori (20/1)
2012 – Captain Ramius (16/1)
2011 – Our Jonathan (11/1)
2010 – Redford (14/1)
2009 – Jimmy Styles (14/1)
2008 – Regal Parade (18/1)
2007 – Advanced (20/1)
2006 – Fonthill Road (16/1)
2005 – Presto Shinko (12/1)
2004 – Funfair Wane (33/1)
2003 – Quito (20/1)
2002 – Funfair Wane (16/1)
Key Ayr Gold Cup Betting Trends
16/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
15/16 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
14/16 – Had 3 or more wins to their name
13/16 – Had won over 6f before
12/16 – Failed to win their last race
11/16 – Carried 9-1 or more
10/16 – Had 7 or more runs that season
10/16 – Unplaced favourites
10/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/16 – Rated 90-100
9/16 – Came from a double-figure stall
9/16 – Had raced at Ayr before
8/16 – Ran at either Doncaster (3), Goodwood (2) or Haydock (3) last time out
8/16 – Winning distance 1 length or less
4/16 – Trained by Kevin Ryan
2/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
1/16– Winning favourites (2 winning favs since 1980)
0/16 – Filly or mare winners
Since 1980 just five winners aged 6 or older
The last 10 winners came from stalls 8 or lower (4 of the last 13 winners came from stall 8)
The last horse to win back-to-back races was Heronsiea in 1930/31
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 15/1
JUICESTORM VERDICT: With ALL of the last 16 winners of the Ayr Gold Cup having raced in the last 6 weeks this is a good stat to have on your side. The likes of Perfect Pastime, George Bowen, Major Jumbo, G Force, Naadirr & Goring would all have this as a negative. It’s also been a bad race for the favourites – with just two market leaders since 1980 winning. 11 of the last 16 winners carried 9-1 or more in weight too so the bottom seven in the card (19-25) have this to overcome. Horses aged 4 and 5 have done best too – winning 10 of the last 16, while we’ve only had five horses since 1980 aged 6 or older. The Silver Cup, run earlier on the card, will give us some vital draw clues so it’s always worth looking back on that race. Trainer Kevin Ryan has done well in the race in recent years too and is mob-handed again with Tommy Taylor, Teruntum Star, Naadir & Major Jumbo running for his yard. Of that bunch the consistent MAJOR JUMBO (e/w) should not be far away. There has been support in the week for the Roger Fell-trained Muntadab, but at 6 years-old I just feel he’s too old. Growl and Flying Pursuit are others that will be popular in the betting, as will the Irish raider – Son Of Rest. This 4 year-old could be thrown-in at the weights after his close second to Havana Grey last weekend in the Group One Derrinstown Stud Flying Five Stakes and prior to that was a fair third in a Group Three. He’s rated 101 but having run the 111-rated Havana Grey to ½ a length last time then punters are sure to latch onto him. He could bolt-up on that form, but with this being a poor race for favourites I’m happy to look elsewhere. GUNMETAL (e/w) is one of the others that catches the eye for me. This David Barron-trained 5 year-old was a top winner of the Great St Wilfrid last time out and despite being up 7lbs for that won with just under 3 lengths to spare. He’s won on good-to-soft ground too, plus draw 15 means he’s got options from the start. The experienced Joe Fanning will be looking for his first win in the race, but trainer David Barron is no stranger to landing this prize after taking it in 1996 with the talented Costal Bluff. Finally, other main one I like here is the 5 year-old FLYING PURSUIT (e/w). This horse loves it soft so will get his favoured conditions here and ticks most of the main trends like – form, age and weight. His form when the ground is soft or heavy reads 1-1-5-1-8-1, while draw 3 will mean he can grab the rail. He was 9th in the Silver Cup in 2016 but has since recorded a course and distance win so we know the track suits. Rachel Richardson rides.
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