2017 Welsh Grand National Free Tips & Trends

Welsh Grand National Free Tips

The race was due to be run this year (2017) on Wednesday December 27th – but due to a waterlogged track has been moved to SATURDAY 6TH JANUARY 2018.

The Welsh Grand National has always been a big highlight over the festive period. With 3m 5 ½f to cover at Chepstow racecourse then stamina is a ‘must-have’ requirement when it comes to finding the winner, while if you like your trends you might want to know that 14 of the 15 winners have been aged 9 or younger, while 12 of the last 15 winners carried 11-0 or less.

Recent Welsh National Winners

2016 – NATIVE RIVER (11/4 fav)
2015 – MOUNTAINOUS (9/1)
2014 – EMPEROR’S CHOICE (9/1)
2013 –  MOUNTAINOUS (20/1)
2012 – MONBEG DUDE (10/1)
2011 – LE BEAU BAI (10/1)
2010 – SYNCHRONISED (5/1)
2009 – DREAM ALLIANCE (20/1)
2008 – NOTRE PERE (16/1)
2007 – MIKO de BEAUCHENE(13/2)
2006 – HALCON GENELARDAIS (7/1)
2005 – L’AVENTURE (14/1)
2004 – SILVER BIRCH (10/3 fav)
2003 – BINDAREE (10/1)
2002 – MINI SENSATION (8/1)

Key Welsh National Betting Trends

15/15 – Had won between 1-5 chase races before
15/15 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
15/15 – Had won over at least 3m before (fences)
14/15 – Aged 9 or younger
13/15 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
12/15 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
12/15 – Aged 8 or younger
11/15 – Carried 10-8 or less in weight
10/15 – Had won just 2 or 3 times before over fences
10/15 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/15 – Irish bred
8/15 – Had won over fences at Chepstow before
6/15 – Unplaced favourites
6/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – French bred
5/15 – Had run in the Welsh National before
4/15 – Ran at Chepstow last time out
2/15 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/15 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 10/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT:

Beware The Bear – Surprisingly, the Nicky Henderson yard have never won the Welsh Grand National, but in Beware The Bear they’ve a fair chance of breaking that duck. This 7 year-old ticks a lot of the main trends and warmed-up for this race with a 2 ¼ length win over another big hope – Bishops Road – at Newcastle last time out in the Rehearsal Chase. That was over 2m7 ½ f in soft ground and a 4lb rise for that win looks fair. He’s won over 3m before, but was well beaten over 4m at the Cheltenham Festival back in March so those against him might look to the 3m5f trip as being a negative. This Fergal O’Brien’s 9 year-old Chase The Spud is another that looks to have a lot going for him. He’s already a National winner after landing the Midlands National at Uttoxeter back in March. He showed he’s trained on over the summer with a return win at Haydock last month, but the handicapper has had his say by whacking him up another 9lbs. That said, with just 13 career runs over fences then this 9 year-old could have more still to come over the bigger obstacles and with proven stamina and form in soft-heavy ground then he’s a player. ASK THE WEATHERMAN (e/w) – from the Jack Barber yard that are more-famed for having point-to-point, or Hunter Chase runners – is one of the most interesting though. This 8 year-old has won 9 of his 10 points and so far has won 2 of his 3 runs over fences under rules. He’s got age on his side and many might remember him as running a solid seventh in the Foxhunters’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival back in March. He’s won over 3m4f and on heavy ground so conditions look fine, while providing some of those at the head of the weights run then he could get in there with a very low weight which would make him very dangerous in a race like this. Emperor’s Choice will also be popular being he’s a past winner of the race (2014), while many punters would have backed him last Saturday when winning at Haydock. He’ll love conditions and the Venetia Williams camp remain in fine fettle. He’s up just 4lbs from last week’s win and is actually 3lbs lower than his 2014 win in this race. Yes, at 11 years-old he’s not getting any younger, but with just 10-3, plus Charlie Deutsch’s 3lb claim, he’ll have a featherweight to carry and that will be a big plus in these conditions. Final Nudge – At 8 years-old Final Nudge is a improving stayer with time on his side. He ran a blinder to be a close second in the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton back in November and is only 6lbs higher here. Conditions were desperate that day so all fine on that front and he’s certainly worth another crack over this sort of trip. He fell four out in the Midlands National won by Chase the Spud, but was in the process of running a big race so connections will be hoping he can make amends in this version on the National. Bishops Road, is from the Kerry Lee yard that won this in 2015, while Kerry’s father, Richard – also had a top record in the race when winning it in 2011 and 2013. Yes, this 9 year-old was well-beaten in the race 12 months ago (10th of 20), but looks set to get into the race off a 10lb lower mark this time. With that in mind we can expect the horse to get a lot closer this time and warmed-up for this with a decent second in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle behind Beware The Bear. He won the Haydock Grand National Trial (3m 4f) back in 2016 on heavy ground so no issues with conditions. Wild West Wind – If making the final runners – is one that could be dangerous off a fairly light weight after winning the trial for this race in early December. This Tom George runner is just 8 years-old and heads here having won three of it’s last four. Yes, he’s quite inexperienced over fences with just four runs, but that should also spell improvement. Add in that he’s a course winner, when winning over 3m here in heavy ground last time then he’s got a lot going for him if coping with the step up in trip – this will be the furthest he’s gone and an 8lb rise make life harder, but he’s a big player. Vicente is owned by Trever Hemmings, who loves having National winners. Many Clouds and Hedgehunter have been heroes for him in the Aintree Grand National but so far the Welsh version has eluded him. However, with Vicente already a National winner after taking the Scottish race in April 2017 then we know this trip will be fine. He returned this season with a fine second at Cheltenham over 3m3f in soft ground and is only a pound higher. Trained by Paul Nicholls, who have won this race twice before, then that’s a further plus, but those looking to take him on might cling to the fact his better form has been on quicker surfaces. MYSTEREE (e/w) though is my second against the field. The Michael Scudamore yard took this in 2012 so certainly know what’s required. This 9 year-old is a consistent chaser too, having won 4 of it’s 9 starts over fences and finished in the top three in 6 of his 9 runs over the bigger obstacles. We last saw him running second to Chase the Spud in the Midlands National back in March so some might question his fitness. However, he’s got a cracking record fresh – winning first time out for the last three seasons. He’s won over 4m too and in soft ground after taking the Eider Chase at Newcastle last February so getting the trip and acting in conditions will be fine. He looks to have a great chance. Of the rest, another horse that will relish conditions is the Neil King-trained MILANSBAR (e/w). This 11 year-old was an excellent third in the Welsh National Trial here in early December – only being beaten 2 ¾ lengths. He’s got a 7lb pull with the winner that day – Wild West Wind – and with the heavy ground a big plus for this 11 year-old then he looks worth a play at double-figure odds too. Alfie Spinner was second in the that trial race so is another to note, but at 13 years-old isn’t getting any younger. Mysteree, Ask The Weatherman and Milansbar are my three against the field.

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