2017 Melbourne Cup Betting Tips and Trends

Melbourne Cup Free Tips and Trends

 

Run each year on the first Tuesday in November the Melbourne Cup is dubbed as ‘the race that stops a nation’. Run over 2m it’s the richest handicap run over that distance in the world.

Staged at Flemington racecourse in Melbourne, Australia the race always attracts runners from all corners of the globe.

Here at JUICESTORM we guide you through the 2017 renewal – this year run on Tuesday 7th November. Did you know that ALL of the last 12 winners had raced in the last 4 weeks?

 

Recent Melbourne Cup Winners

2016 – ALMANDIN (10/1)
2015 – PRINCE OF PENZANCE (100/1)
2014 – PROTECTIONIST (7/1)
2013 – FIORENTE (6/1 fav)
2012 – GREEN MOON (19/1)
2011 – DUNADEN (15/2)
2010 – AMERICAIN (12/1)
2009 – SHOCKING (9/1)
2008 – VIEWED (40/1)
2007 – EFFICIENT (16/1)
2006 – DELTA BLUES (17/1)
2005 – MAKYBE DIVA (17/5 fav)
2004 – MAKYBE DIVA (13/5 fav)

Key Melbourne Cup Betting Trends and Stats

13/13 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
13/13 – Raced at either Geelong (2), Flemington (3), Caulfield (3) of Moon Valley (5) last time
13/13 – Had won a Group class race before
12/13 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
12/13 – Won 8 or fewer races before
11/13 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
10/13 – Had raced within the last 2 weeks
10/13 – Aged 5 or older
9/13 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
9/13 – Aged 6 or older
9/13 – Won by a AUS-based horse
9/13 – Had raced at Flemington Park before (6 won there)
9/13 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/13 – Horses from stall 10 or 11 placed
8/13 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
8/13 – Won by a 6 year-old
7/13 – Placed favourites
6/13 – Had won over 1m7f or further before
4/13 – Had won just once before
4/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Had raced in a previous Melbourne Cup
2/13 – French-trained winners
0/13 – English/Irish winners
The average winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 19/1

 

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The 2016 winner, Almandin, will be looking to become the first horse since Makybe Diva in 2004/05 to land back-to-back Melbourne Cups, but with Frankie Dettori booked to ride then this 7 year-old is sure to be popular.

Several key trends to take into the race too and with 12 of the last 13 winners coming from stalls 5 or higher then despite it only being 4 horses we can rule out those drawn very low – Bondi Beach, Max Dynamite, Johannes Vermeer and Rekindling.

All of the last 13 winners had raced in the last 4 weeks too, while 10 of the last 13 were aged 5 or older – with 6 year-olds having by far the best recent record, by winning 8 of the last 13 renewals.

We’ve plenty of European challengers again this year and despite a lot of near misses in recent years we’ve still not seen a UK or Irish-trained winner in the last 13, but the French have done better with wins in 2010 and 2011.

Horses from stalls 10 and 11 have done well in recent years with 8 place finishes between them in the last 13 runnings, so Amelie’s Star and Single Gaze are horses to certainly have on your radar.

Horses that were placed in the top three last time out are others to have in mind as 9 of the last 13 winners fit the bill here and of the 23 runners only 11 fit the bill – Cismontane, Single Gaze, Libran, Tiberian, Nakeeta, Boom Time, Max Dynamite, Thomas Hobson, Wall Of Fire & Humidor.

Of that lot, Thomas Hobson and Wall Of Fire catch the eye and are ones for the shortlist, but with 10 of the last 13 winners having raced in the last 2 weeks then HUMIDOR (e/w) ticks more trends than most. This 5 year-old ran a decent second just 10 days ago in the Cox Plate behind the classy Winx and despite this being a big step up in trip he might be worth chancing. Yes, this 2m distance is the furthest he’s gone before, but with proven flat speed and the fact he’s sure to be ridden to get the yardage then he’s worth chancing.

Of the rest, SINGLE GAZE (e/w) and LIBRAN (e/w) also tick a fair few trends and of those at bigger prices are worthy of a small interest too.

 

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