2017 Cesarewitch Handicap Betting Trends

Cesarewitch Betting Tips and Trends

Run over 2m2f on the Newmarket Rowley Mile course the Cesarewitch Handicap is one of the most popular betting races of the season.
Along with the Cambridgeshire Handicap, that is run 2-3 weeks earlier, the two races are generally known as the Autumn Double and both contests are always ultra-competitive.

We take a look at the best stats ahead of the 2017 renewal that will hopefully allow you to whittle down the big field – this year run on Saturday 14th October. Did you know 12 of the last 15 winners returned a double-figure price in the betting, while we’ve seen just two winning favourites since 1993?

 

Recent Cesarewitch Handicap Winners

2016 – Sweet Selection (7/1)
2015 – Grumeti (50/1)
2014 – Big Easy (10/1)
2013 – Scatter Dice (66/1)
2012 – Aaim To Prosper (66/1)
2011 – Never Can Tell (25/1)
2010 – Aaim To Prosper (16/1)
2009 – Darley Sun (9/2 fav)
2008 – Caracciola (50/1)
2007 – Leg Spinner (14/1)
2006 – Detroit City (9/2 fav)
2005 – Sergeant Cecil (10/1)
2004 – Contact Dancer (16/1)
2003 – Landing Light (12/1)
2002 – Miss Fara (12/1)

Cesarewitch Handicap Betting Trends

14/15 – Aged 4 or older
12/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
12/15 – Had won over at least 1m6f on the flat before
12/15 – Had run within the last 2 months
12/15 – Carried 9-1 or less
11/15 – Had 3 or more previous flat runs that season
10/15 – Finished 4th or better last time out
10/15 – Aged 5 or older
9/15 – Drawn in stall 12 or lower
9/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/15 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
9/15 – Had won 4 or more times on the flat before
8/15 – Ran at either Ascot, Chester or Doncaster last time out
8/15 – Had run at the track before
7/15 – The first three home ALL returned a double-figure price
7/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Won by a NH trainer
4/15 – Winning mares
3/15 – Winners from stall 1
2/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/15 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 24/1
Just 2 winning favourites since 1993

 

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With 34 runners then it’s another super-tough renewal of this popular staying flat race. Plenty of decent trends to take into the contest though – like 12 of the last 15 winners carrying 9-1 or less in weight. That’s a decent 80% return on this stat alone and if that’s to be repeated then the top 12 on the card – including the likes of Who Dares Win, who was a good winner of the Cesarewitch Trial last time out, and the consistent Endless Acres. It’s also a race that attracts a lot of runners from the National Hunt arena, with 7 of the last 15 winners coming from a jumps-based yard. With just two winning favourites since 1993 then it’s also been a top race for the bookmakers and a tricky one for punters, but it is worth pointing out that just over half (7 from 15) market leaders have been placed in the race – which is not a bad return continuing the competitive nature of the race. At this stage the Roger Charlton-trained Withhold and the John Quinn-trained John Constable are to the fore of the betting, but so is the Willie Mullins-trained LAGOSTOVEGAS (e/w). Ryan Moore has been booked to ride this 5 year-old so that’s another good sign, while recent wins over hurdles mean the horse heads here in tip-top order and full of confidence. Draw 5 looks ideal too and with just 8-12 in weight has got in here on a nice mark. Others to note regarding the key trends are BYRON FLYER (e/w), who is closely-matched with the only 3 year-old in the race – Time To Study – but looks the better value. This Ian Williams runner has finished second the last four times, but is a tough sort that rarely runs a bad race and does seem to have many of the key trends on his side. While DUKE STREET (e/w) is another interesting runner that should be a lot fitter for a recent third over fences at Worcester. He stays a lot further than this 2m2f trip over the sticks so we can expect connections to make full use of that, while the useful Hector Crouch takes off a handy 3lbs from the saddle.

 

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