Tuesday 4th August 2020
Championship Play-Off Final Wembley
Tuesday 4th August
Brentford v Fulham 19.45pm
The “biggest game in football” with the ultimate prize, a place in the Premier League. With that in mind, it is easy to see why six of the last eight finals have been Under 2.5 goals, the other two both ended 2-1. Only two of those eight finals saw both teams score, and no side managed to come from behind. On that evidence, of recent years, the first goal is crucial, so expect a bit of “cat and mouse” early on. Brentford have had the best of recent head to head games, there have been ten meetings in the Championship, and they have won six and drawn three. In six of those ten games, both teams scored and five were Under and five were Over. Those games suggest goals, but none of those games were anywhere near as big as this final.
The Under 2.5 goals price is 1.66 and that seems about right, but I think it is a little short to trade, so a better bet might be to trade correct scores around 1-0, 0-1 and 0-0 with a view to trading for a green book at some point. That strategy would have been successful in five of those eight finals.
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