Friday 7th December 2018
West Brom v Aston Villa
If Aston Villa could get consistency into their game, they will certainly be challenging for promotion come the end of the season. That is a big if however, and although recently they have shown they can beat anyone with defeats of Derby, Birmingham and Middlesbrough, they have also lost at QPR and played a crazy 5-5 draw with Forest. West Brom have won their last three and steadied the ship after a rocky spell. This is a tough one to call but Both Teams To Score at 1.50 is possibly the safest option.
Saturday 8th December 2018
Leeds v QPR
Leeds won both the meetings last season and they have won two and drawn two of the last five head to head in Leeds. All those five games were Under 2.5 goals and Leeds have won their last three games all Under 2.5 goals. The problem we have here is that the last four QPR games have all gone Over 3.5 goals. It has to be a Leeds win but odds of 1.60 are hardly huge value so perhaps trade around the correct scores 1-0 and 2-0 for a green book.
Wigan v Derby
Derby have won on four of their last five trips to Wigan and would be backable here at 2.20 if they weren’t so inconsistent. They have at least won three of their last five whilst Wigan have now been unbeaten in three after a run of four defeats. Purely because seven of the last eight Derby games have gone Over 2.5 goals, I fancy goals here and will go with a small stake on Over 3.5 goals at 3.20 with a view to trading out if we get early goals.
Nottm Forest v Preston
Preston won this fixture 3-0 last season but that would be a huge shock here. The three previous meetings all ended 1-1 and Preston have managed three draws on their last five visits. Forest are unbeaten in seven and 2.00 may well appeal to many but Preston had been unbeaten in nine before losing at Birmingham. I can see this being a lot closer than the odds suggest and I’m prepared to go with a small Lay of Forest at 2.00 with a view to trading out if Preston lead or if it is level in the second half.
Reading v Sheff Utd
Only two recent head to head which were both won by Sheff Utd and both were Over 2.5 goals. Sheff Utd have won five away this season and Reading have won just one of their last seven matches. Sheff Utd are no value at odds on away from home so I think this is a game for Lay The Draw with a view to trading out for a profit.
Birmingham v Bristol City
Both of last season’s encounters were Over 2.5 goals and when Bristol City won last April, it ended a fourteen-game run without a win against Birmingham. The recent head to head in Birmingham ended 2-1, 1-0, 4-2, 2-0 and 2-2. Birmingham have won their last two matches and despite not being beaten at home, they have drawn six of those ten. Bristol City ended a four-game losing run with a win and a draw. Six of Birmingham’s last seven games were Over 2.5 goals and I can see that happening again here and 2.10 is a fair price.