Nugget XT Starter 1 Strategy

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I opened my Betfair account on 22nd April 2003. I was one of the first subscribers to Adam Todd's BetTrader and was a founding partner of JuiceStorm.com on 17th February 2007.

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Article by Darren Hall.

The Nugget Collection – XT Starter One Strategy

Some of you may know these guys as Adster and Bingo Little or collectively as The Nugget Crew.

This video is from their “Nugget Collection” over at www.tradingfootball.eu

These videos demonstrate the importance of determining a strategy that fits the criteria of a selected match, is adaptable when the game is “in-play” and has various exit points for closing both a winning and possible losing trade.

Correct Score markets, Match Odds and Under/Over 2.5 goal markets are the most popular markets as evidenced by the amount of liquidity available. But we show how trading different markets in the same match can produce dividends. It`s a balancing act that requires knowledge of the movements of odds in markets that are mutually linked to each other.

I have been playing around with some of the strategies myself and been making consistent profits as I go and do hope to be covering these in much more detail during the coming weeks.

One of the most successful has been the XT Starter One strategy featured above and the guys have kindly allowed us to show this video in full from the main collection to give you an idea of the quality of the content they provide.

Forum discussion of this video from BetSeventyTwo

by mikeymp » Tue Nov 17, 2009 10:16 am

Interesting stuff will give it a try using smaller stakes to start with…nice work darren

by Darren » Tue Nov 17, 2009 11:55 am

Yeah, just remember 10% of the Unders Stake on the 0-10 market.

Having spoken with Adster his general guidelines for strategy are:

Use Live TV Games, so you can see time accurately and get out at 9:55 whatever, remember the 5 second in-play delay on befair. Of course if you are watching the game and the ball is out the ground, injury or both teams are fannying about on the 9:55 mark you could hold out for a few more ticks but after 10 mins your insurance bet is gone so be careful

Liquidity, at least £40k pre KO in the Unders market (should be no problem with TV games)

Prematch unders around 2s to 2.20s

Also watch when very strong fav at home as market anticiaptes them scoring early on so Unders tends to stay higher for a little longer especially when they are up against lower teams. I did this on the Leeds / Grimsby game last week, playing £100 / £10 stakes, after 10 mins I could only green out for £4.70 on Unders and my tenner on 0-10 was gone so match selection is key.

by Betformulas » Tue Nov 17, 2009 9:35 pm

Apologies.

I got things wrong here concerning the insurance bet.

Thank you Gentari for your comment below,

Howard.

by Gentari » Tue Nov 17, 2009 9:52 pm

I think you are missing the fact that the unders bet can be traded out of for a loss, not a complete loss.

I spoke to Adster a long while ago about this and there are issues.

I will be paper trading the strategy and will have a go if I think it has merit.

The issue I need to really understand is the award of a penalty in the 9th minute of the match which after everyone shouts at the ref for a minute only gets scored after 10 minutes…lose, lose then

by Darren » Wed Nov 18, 2009 11:59 am

Yes that is right, we either trade out on the Unders position as soon as a goal is scored in the first 10 mins (allowing for the market to settle) for a red but more than covered by our 0-10 goal minutes bet or at 9:50 when the idea is the price has dropped enough to take a green over and above the loss on the 0-10 market.

Of course this is not 100%, and match selection is key. 2 quick early goals without the chance to trade the first one can stuff you too and like you say, a suspension on BF with the clock ticking is a danger too. Other dangers could be Betfair market not going in play at all and your trades are in pre KO (have seen that before, even on a game that was due to go inplay).

I suppose we could look at other insurances but then you start insuring against the insurance and that can null any potential profit but I think this may have some legs.

Also plenty of other dangers too, don’t forget the technology ones for starters. Betfair goes down, internet outage, PC crashes, API software dies, coffee in the keyboard, dog chews the cables etc…. now these can be controlled by having a plan B, remember the money is always at risk from the moment you slap it on the table so to speak. So have a backup plan for all the elements in your control at the very least.

Certainly not a foolproof strategy but one that gives a decent insurance level and only takes 10 minutes and we are done!

I will try and make a couple of videos, good trade / bad trade types and we can see for ourselves and maybe look at refining it as we go.

Re: Trading Football – nugget crew

by steve180479 » Wed Dec 30, 2009 11:14 pm

what strategies have you been using darren – have you been concentrating on anything specific, ie getting one or two practiced to a tee or what?

i’ve been following these last couple of weeks and thing i find with these guys is there are numerous strategies which work on certain matches with certain features or key stats – and trying to keep up with why one strat works on one match but not another is quite hard to grasp at an early stage!

by gusyonok » Tue Jan 05, 2010 9:24 am

agree steve. Lots of interesting strategies on paper, but I for one can’t seem to make them work. I have tried the under 2.5 goals and back goal in first 10 minutes thing on a few matches but not made a profit on any of them! maybe I’m just unlucky.

by Darren » Tue Jan 05, 2010 11:27 pm

I think match selection is key to all these strategies. For example, tonight’s went perfectly, Barca v Seville

Pre KO

Back First Goal 0-10 with £25 @ 4.8

Back Under 2.5 with £250 @ 2.12

After 10 mins (well nearer 11 but the ball being messed about with and nowhere near the goal, so I stayed in a little longer)

Lay Unders with £286.49 @ 1.85

£9.49 profit

but have had others that have been scratch or small loss trades. I will get some basic guidelines from the boys on the games to consider for the respective strategies.

by gusyonok » Wed Jan 06, 2010 6:33 am

Would appreciate that Darren-thanks. I clearly need a little help on match selection!

by gazza180 » Wed Jan 06, 2010 12:35 pm

Hi all,

I have been trading the football markets for around 18 months now, I think one of the key things to look at is, risk versus reward when deciding whether to trade the chosen market, the trade Darren done last night returned a profit but the potential to lose your £250 on the unders market is still very real, by that I mean – team A scores then when you are waiting for the market to settle to close out the trade, bang another goal goes in, it does happen and you could find yourself in a very perilous position praying a third goal does not go in. Well done on your profit Darren, I just thought it would be good to post this up for the betseventytwo’ers who are new to the football markets, trading is like everything else, it is not without risk, the key is to aim for regular profit, build up your skills and your bank!!

All the best

Gazza

by gusyonok » Wed Jan 06, 2010 5:10 pm

Thanks for that gazza. I’ve got to agree that 250 risk for less than 10 profit is too much for me-might as well back a 1.04 shot!

by Darren » Wed Jan 06, 2010 5:58 pm

I take the point about the risk v reward and that is true of any trading strategy.

Wish I had recorded today’s trade I did. Parma v Juve.

BACK 0-10mins with £10 @ 4.9

BACK Unders with £100 @ 1.77

Goal after 3 mins, got out of unders at 2.9 for a £41 loss but made £47 (after comm) on the 0-10 bet, ok for 3 mins work!

by hudders » Thu Jan 07, 2010 11:28 pm

gazza180 wrote:Hi all,

All the best

Gazza

I trade Football myself gazza & agree with your comments. I’ll be honest risk/reward wise I don’t like this trade at all. The potential downswing for me outweighs the potential profit.