Royal Ascot Tips and Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 20th June 2019)

2019 Royal Ascot Tips and Trends

As we move into DAY THREE at  ROYAL ASCOT we’ve six more top-notch races to take in that include the Ribblesdale Stakes, Britannia Stakes and Norfolk Stakes, but day three has always only ever been about one race – the Ascot Gold Cup! Trainer Aidan O’Brien will be going for his 8th win in the race, while – Did you know that 13 of the last 17 Ascot Gold Cup favourites finished in the top three?

Like all big race days here at JuiceStorm we’ve got it all covered with key trends and stats, plus our free tips (to be added once final runners are out) – use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

Enjoy!

2019 Royal Ascot Horse Racing Trends

2.30 – Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 5f

Norfolk Stakes Recent Winners

2018 – Shang Shang Shang (5/1)
2017 – Sioux Nation (14/1)
2016 – Prince Of Lir (8/1)
2015 – Waterloo Bridge (12/1)
2014 – Baitha Alga (8/1)
2013 – No Nay Never (4/1)
2012 – Reckless Abandon (4/1)
2011 – Bapak Chinta (6/1)
2010 – Approve (16/1)
2009 – Radiohead (10/1)
2008 – South Central (11/4 fav)
2007 – Winker Watson (2/1 fav)
2006 – Dutch Art (11/4)
2005 – Masta Plasta (7/2)
2004 – Blue Dakota (5/4 fav)
2003 – Russian Valour (4/1)

Norfolk Stakes Key Trends

16/16 – Previous winners over 5f
16/16 – Had at least 1 previous run
14/16 – Had a RPR of 106+
14/16 – Won their previous race
14/16 – Had never raced at Ascot before
12/16 – Foaled in March or April
10/16 – Favourites placed
9/16 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
5/16 – Returned a double-figure price
3/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Ran at Windsor last time out
Aidan O’Brien has trained 2 of the last 4 winners
9 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 7-12 (inc)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Aidan O’Brien yard have won two of the last four runnings and with Ryan Moore having a 26% record riding 2 year-olds at the track then MOUNT FUJI is sure to be popular here. This Dark Angel colt won well on debut at Cork last month and is clearly progressed since to be taking his chance here in this Group Two. He’s some fancy entries later in the season to back this up too and the O’Brien team have a 22% strike-rate with their juveniles at the track. It’s worth nothing they also run King Neptune. Another yard that does well with their 2 year-olds at the course is Charlie Appleby (33%) – he runs EXPRESSIONIST. This colt also has the added bonus of being a proven CD winner after winning on debut here last month so we know the track suits. Of the rest, the US-trained Maven has to be respected coming from the Wesley Ward camp that have won this race in 2013 and 2018. French raider – Real Appeal – is one of the more experienced in the field and that might be an asset. Ventura Rebel is another CD winner too, but hails from the Richard Fahey team that are just 1 from 28 at the track with their juveniles, so is overlooked based on that. Sunday Sovereign is likely to be very popular in the betting too after two smooth wins at the Curragh and Tipperary – he looks a very smart prospect, but might not be much value in the betting. Finally, with 9 of the last 13 winners coming between stalls 7-12 then Cool Sphere, Air Force Jet, A’Ali, Sunday Sovereign and Ventura Rebel are the ones that tick that stat.

3.05 – Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m2f

Hampton Court Stakes Recent Winners

2018 – Hunting Horn (5/1)
2017 – Benbatl (9/2)
2016 – Hawkbill (11/2)
2015 – Time Test (15/8 fav)
2014 – Cannock Chase (7/4 fav)
2013 – Remote (9/4 fav)
2012 – Energizer (15/2)
2011 – Pisco Sour (20/1)
2010 – Afsare (9/4 fav)
2009 – Glass Harmonium (8/1)
2008 – Collection (13/2)
2007 – Zaham (7/2 fav)
2006 – Snoqualmie Boy (33/1)
2005 – Indigo Cat (3/1 fav)
2004 – Moscow Ballet (8/1)
2003 – Persian Majesty (8/1)

Hampton Court Stakes Key Trends

15/16 – Had not raced at Ascot before
13/16 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
13/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/16 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs that season
10/16 – Had won over 1m2f before
8/16 – Unplaced favourites
6/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Ran at Epsom last time out
3/16 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
3/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/16 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute
No winner from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
11 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 5 or higher
8 of the last 13 winners came from stall 5-9 (inc)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: This has been a good race for the O’Brien and Stoute runners in recent years – winning 5 of the last 16 between them. Stoute runs SANGARIUS, who should be a lot fitter for a recent third at Sandown and will also have the assistance of Frankie Dettori in the saddle. Did hang a bit in the closing stages last time but the longer trip here should help and with just four career runs should have a lot more to come – he looks a typical Stoute improver. The Queen will be cheering on her Eightsome Reel too and is not without a squeak on what we’ve seen on the track so far. I’ve already mentioned the good O’Brien record too – they run Cape Of Good Hope and Old Glory – with the former looking their main runner. He was last seen running fourth in the French Derby and that’s solid form now dropped into a Group Three – Ryan Moore rides. Fox Chairman, Roseman and Kick On are others that can go well, but the other interesting one for me is the Charlie Fellowes-trained KING OTTOKAR (e/w). This one-time Derby hopeful clearly didn’t stay the 1m4f trip last time in the Chester Vase, but prior to that was very impressive in winning over this trip (soft) at Newbury. With that in mind, the drop back in distance will help, while any rain won’t hinder his chance.

3.40 – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (3yo) Winner £77,092 1m4f

Ribblesdale Stakes Recent Winners

2018 – Magic Wand (10/3)
2017 – Coronet (9/1)
2016 – Even Song (15/8 fav)
2015 – Curvy (9/2)
2014 – Bracelet (10/1)
2013 – Riposte (9/2)
2012 – Princess Highway (17/2)
2011 – Banimpire (3/1 fav)
2010 – Hibaayeb (4/1 jfav)
2009 – Flying Cloud (5/1)
2008 – Michita (10/3 fav)
2007 – Silkwood (4/1)
2006 – Mont Etoile (25/1)
2005 – Thakafaat (22/1)
2004 – Punctilious (9/2)
2003 – Spanish Sun (9/2)

Ribblesdale Stakes Key Trends

14/16 – Had at least 2 previous races that season
12/16 – Placed in their previous race
13/16 – Had never raced at Ascot before
12/16 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
11/16 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Placed favourites
9/16 – Had exactly 2 previous runs that season
7/16 – Won their last race
6/16 – Irish-trained winners (5 of last 7)
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
3/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3 of last 5)
3/16 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
3/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Just two winners from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
6 of the last 13 winners came between stalls 3-6 (inc)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Frankellina and Star Cracker will give the Oppenheimer owners a strong hand here and both certainly have the form to go close, especially the James Doyle-ridden Frankellina, who was a fair sixth in the Epsom Oaks last time – not beaten far. Trainer John Gosden, who won this in 2017, is mob-handed too with Sparkle Roll, Shambolic, Fanny Logan and the already-mentioned Star Catcher, who will have Frankie Dettori doing the steering. However, the betting suggests that Queen Power and FLEETING might be the ones to focus on. The first-named will be all the rage after beating Star Catcher into third at Sandown last time out, but this is another hike up the grades and the official ratings suggest he’s also got 10lbs to find with Fleeting, who hails from the O’Brien yard that have won this race three times in the last five years. This 3 year-old was third in the Epsom Oaks so has the beating of several of these and the way he ran on well in the closing stages suggests this stiffer track will suit. Ryan Moore rides.

4.20 – Gold Cup (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m4f

Recent Ascot Gold Cup Winners

2018 – Stradivarius (7/4 jfav)
2017 – Big Orange (5/1)
2016 – Order Of St George (10/11 fav)
2015 – Trip To Paris (12/1)
2014 – Leading Light (10/11 fav)
2013 – Estimate (7/2 fav)
2012 – Colour Vision (6/1)
2011 – Fame And Glory (11/8 fav)
2010 – Rite of Passage (20/1)
2009 – Yeats (6/4 fav)
2008 – Yeats (11/8 fav)
2007 – Yeats (8/13 fav)
2006 – Yeats (7/1)
2005 – Westerner (7/4 fav)
2004 – Papineau (5/1)
2003 – Mr Dinos (3/1)
2002 – Royal Rebel (16/1)

Key Ascot Gold Cup Trends

15/17 – Had no more than 2 previous runs that season
14/17 – Had won over at least 2 miles on the flat before
14/17 – Had between 1-2 previous runs that season
13/17 – Favourites that were placed
12/17 – Won their last race
11/17 – Previous Group 1 winners
9/17 – Aged 5 or older
9/17 – Won by the favourite
7/17 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
5/17 – Ran at Sandown last time out (Henry II Stakes)
11 of the last 13 winners returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
8 of the last 13 winners returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
6 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 1-5 (inc)
Godolphin won the race in 1996, 1998, 2004 & 2012
Aidan O’Brien has trained the winner in 2016, 2014, 2011, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006
Since 1949 there have been 13 multiple winners of the race

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Another race the O’Brien team have done well in – winning it 7 times since 2006 – they run Flag Of Honour, who seems to have an each-way chance. Godolphin have also done well in the race – winning it four times since 1996 – they’ve got a big chance too this year with Cross Counter. This course winner has won four of his last five and stays 2m well so a crack at this 2m4f distance is worth a go. The current champion – Stradivarius – will of course be all the rage too. He’s won his last six, including his return run at York when taking the Yorkshire Cup and we know he’s a versatile sort over trips from 1m6f to 2m4f. He’s the clear one to beat, and is chasing the £1 million bonus again. But this year’s renewal does look a tad stronger than last year and the emergence of DEE EX BEE (e/w) in the staying ranks makes it further more interesting. This Mark Johnston-trained 4 year-old, who was runner-up in the Epsom Derby last season has made the transition to the longer trips a good one this season. He won the Sagaro Stakes here over 2m in May and then followed-up to take the Henry II Stakes at Sandown – both have been fair trials for this race over the years. He could be even better over this longer trip and might just be a tough front-runner for the favourite to pass this year. I just feel that Stradivarius has had to work hard in his races of late and that might all be starting to catch up with him – we’ll see. But he’s certainly little value and maybe there is a new Gold Cup champion in the making this season. Finally, of those at a bigger price THOMAS HOBSON (e/w), might be worth a small interest. This Willie Mullins-trained runner was second to Stradivarius here on Champions Day and we know he’ll stay this trip (CD winner). His overall form figures at the track read well – 1-2-6-2 – too.

5.00 – Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Colts & Geldings) (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-105) 1m

Britannia Stakes Recent Winners

2018 – Ostillo (10/1)
2017 – Bless Him (25/1)
2016 – Defrocked (13/2)
2015 – War Envoy (10/1)
2014 – Born In China (14/1)
2013 – Beauty Flame (20/1)
2012 – Fast Or Free (6/1 fav)
2011 – Sagramor (8/1)
2010 – Ransom Note (9/1)
2009 – Fareer (20/1)
2008 – Fifteen Love (28/1)
2007 – Eddie Jock (33/1)
2006 – Sir Gerard (9/2 fav)
2005 – Mostashaar (10/3 fav)
2004 – Mandobi (8/1)
2003 – New Seeker (16/1)

Britannia Stakes Key Trends

14/16 – Had no more than 3 previous runs that season
13/16 – Had won a race over 7f or 1m before
12/16 – Failed to win their previous race
12/16 – Placed last time out
12/16 – Carried 8-13 or less
11/16 – Had never run at Ascot before
10/16 – Unplaced favourites
10/16 – Returned a double-figure price
8/16 – Had exactly 2 previous runs that season
6/16 – Had only won over 7f previously
4/16 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
3/16 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Just one top three finish horse from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
9 of the last 13 winners came from a double-figure stall

JUICESTORM VERDICT: One of the hardest races to call at the entire meeting with 33 runners running over the straight mile. Jockey Jamie Spencer has ridden two of the last three winners and four of the last 16, so his ride Dark Vision has that as a plus. Horses drawn in stall one have struggled in recent years though – and Dark Vision has the one berth. 9 of the last 13 winners have come from a double-figure draw but with two-thirds of the runners coming from a double-figure draw then this trend would have it’s doubters. 12 of the last 16 carried 8-13 or less in weight though so this would mean horses numbered 15-33 fit this bracket. Being placed last time out, but NOT winning is another stat to look for, while having not raced at Ascot hasn’t been a negative in the past. With all this in mind the ones that standout are KING ADEMAR, TULFARRIS & BIOMETRIC, while MIGRATION is another to have on your side as the David Menuisier yard have their horses in cracking form. The Gosden pair of Turgenev and Beatboxer are others to note, with Frankie riding the former, while Ryan Moore and Aidan O’Brien team-up with Dunkirk Harbour. Finally, with a 67% (2 from 3) record with his 3 year-old here then trainer Alan King’s Dunkerron can’t be ruled out, plus the Ed Walker team (29%) also do well here with their 3 year-olds – he runs Glorious Lover.

 

5.35 – King George V Stakes (Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-105) 1m4f

King George V Stakes Recent Winners

2018 – Baghdad (9/1)
2017 – Atty Persse (7/1)
2016 – Primitivo (13/2)
2015 – Space Age (9/1)
2014 – Elite Army (4/1 jfav)
2013 – Elidor (20/1)
2012 – Fennell Bay (12/1)
2011 – Brown Panther (4/1 jfav)
2010 – Dandino (7/1)
2009 – Cosmic Sun (66/1)
2008 – Colony (11/2 fav)
2007 – Heron Bay (20/1)
2006 – Linas Selection (9/2)
2005 – Munsef (14/1)
2004 – Admiral (9/1)
2003 – Fantastic Love (10/1)

King George V Stakes Key Trends

16/16 – Had at least 2 previous runs that same season
16/16 – Had between 2 and 4 previous runs that season
15/16 – Never raced at Ascot before
15/16 – Placed last time out
13/16 – Carried 8-13 or less
11/16 – Had won over at least 1m2f previously
9/16 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
8/16 – Favourites placed
8/16 – Won their previous race
6/16 – Won by trainers Sir Michael Stoute (2) or Mark Johnston (4)
4/16 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3/16 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
10 of the last 13 winners came between stalls 10-20 (inc)
8 of the last 13 winners came between stalls 10-16 (inc)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With 13 of the last 16 winners carrying 8-13 or less then the top five on the card have this stat to overcome. However, it’s been a top race for the Mark Johnston and Sir Michael Stoute yards in recent years – they’ve won 6 of the last 16 – and Johnston did it again last season with Baghdad. This year Johnston runs Persian Moon, Summer Moon and SIR RON PRIESTLEY – all three command respect but the last-named might be the one. He’s won his last two in the style of an improver and draw 10 looks ideal His recent win at Haydock has since been franked and despite an 8lb rise in the ratings has only raced 4 times so should have more to come. Stoute runs – ALMANIA – and we can expect a lot better from this 3 year-old. He was highly-tried in the Dante Stakes last time out (last of 8), but will find this drop into a handicap and the longer trip more to his liking. He’s clearly well regarded by connections to run in a Group race after just two maiden runs and would looks another typical Stoute performer in this race – one he loves winning. Even though the race is run over 1m4f the draw has played it’s part too, as 10 of the last 13 winners have come from stalls 10-20. Of the rest, Sinjaari, Fox Premier and Babbo’s Boy are certainly others to note, as is the Frankie-ridden Questionare for trainer John Gosden. The likely favourite though will be Constantinople, for the O’Brien yard. He was a good winner last time at the Curragh in a Group Three and is the top-rated in the field. This hasn’t been a lucky race for O’Brien in recent years though and as a result of being the top-rated, he’ll also have top-weight to carry and history tells us that makes life hard in this race. He can go well, but is overlooked.

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