Royal Ascot Tips and Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 21st June 2019)

2019 Royal Ascot Tips and Trends

Into DAY FOUR at  ROYAL ASCOT we’ve six more mouth-watering races to look forward to that include the Albany Stakes and the King Edward VII Stakes, but the two Group Ones on the card – the Commonwealth Cup and Coronation Stakes stand out as the feature contests – Did you know that 15 of the last 16 Coronation Stakes winners returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting?

Like all big race days here at JuiceStorm we’ve got it all covered with key trends and stats, plus our free tips (to be added once final runners are out) – use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

Enjoy!

 

More Royal Ascot 2019 Coverage

Check out our Royal Ascot 2019 Category for more Ascot Action including:

  • Trading Focus: 2019 Royal Ascot
  • 2019 Royal Ascot Top Trainer And Jockey Betting Guide
  • Royal Ascot 2019 – Bankers Or Blowouts?
  • Royal Ascot Tips And Trends: DAY ONE through FIVE

 


2019 Royal Ascot Horse Racing Trends

2.30 – Albany Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 6f

Albany Stakes Past Winners

2018 – Main Edition (7/1)
2017 – Different League (20/1)
2016 – Brave Anna (16/1)
2015 – Illuminate (4/1 fav)
2014 – Cursory Glance (14/1)
2013 – Kiyoshi (8/1)
2012 – Newfangled (7/4 fav)
2011 – Samitar (16/1)
2010 – Memory (15/2)
2009 – Habaayib (16/1)
2008 – Cuis Ghaire (8/11 fav)
2007 – Nijoom Dubai (50/1)
2006 – Sander Camillo (4/1 fav)
2005 – La Chunga (10/1)
2004 – Jewel In The Sand (10/1)
2003 – Silca’s Gift (5/1)


Albany Stakes Key Trends

16/16 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs
16/16 – Never raced at Ascot before
15/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
14/16 – Won by either a Feb or Mar foal
12/16 – Won their previous race
11/16 – Placed favourites
9/16 – Returned a double-figure price
7/16 – Won by trainers Channon (2), Hannon (3) or Noseda (2)
5/16 – Previous winner over 6f
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Ran at Sandown last time
The last 13 winners came from double-figure stalls
10 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 11-15 (inc)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Another race that the US trainer – Wesley Ward – looks to hold a strong hand in. He’s got Nayibeth and Chili Petin in the race, who both won on their debuts too. The US form is always hard to translate, but they look speedy sorts that are sure to trail-blaze from the front. However, both won over 4 ½ furlongs so will have another 1 ½ furlongs to prove themselves over this time and that would be a slight worry. Of the two, and with the last 13 winners coming from a double-figure stall then CHILI PETIN (drawn 11) edges it and his breeding certainly suggests this 6f trip is more than within range. On the home front, the Charlie Appleby team have a top record with their juveniles at the track (32%) so their SILENT WAVE is another to have on side. This filly won well on debut at Goodwood over this trip and even though she was a bit green that also suggests she’ll come on for that experience and have more to offer. Of course, the Aidan O’Brien yard, who won this prize in 2016, are feared in these races too – he runs So Wonderful and Precious Moments. With 10 of the last 13 winners coming from stalls 10-13 then Silent Wave, Chili Petin, Exclusively and Paper Star are the four that fit that draw trend. Finally, with three wins in the last 16 runnings the Hannon team are another to note – they run Kimble and Separate.

 

3.05 – King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m4f

King Edward VII Stakes Recent Winners

2018 – Old Persian (9/2)
2017 – Permian (6/1)
2016 – Across The Stars (7/1)
2015 – Balios (3/1)
2014 – Eagle Top (12/1)
2013 – Hillstar (15/2)
2012 – Thomas Chippendale (9/2)
2011 – Nathaniel (11/4 fav)
2010 – Monterosso (7/2)
2009 – Father Time (9/1)
2008 – Campanologist (9/1)
2007 – Boscobel (7/1)
2006 – Papal Bull (5/4 fav)
2005 – Plea Bargain (9/2)
2004 – Five Dynasties (11/4 fav)
2003 – High Accolade (5/2 fav)

King Edward VII Stakes Key Trends

16/16 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
15/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the
12/16 – Had never raced at Ascot before
11/16 – Placed favourites
11/16 – Finished in the top three last time out
10/16 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
9/16 – Had won at least 2 previous races during their career
6/16 – Had already won a Listed or better class race
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by John Gosden
3/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston
No winner from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
11 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 4-9 (inc)
12 of the last 13 winners returned 9/1 or shorter

JUICESTORM VERDICT: This season’s Epsom Derby form is on show here as the third – JAPAN – is out again. Rated 117, this 3 year-old was only beaten ½ a length in the Derby and really on that form is the clear one to beat. That was his first try over this 1m4f trip and the way he stayed on suggests he’ll be even better at this stiffer track. Softer ground is fine too (won on heavy) and even though this has not been a kind race to the Aidan O’Brien camp (one win, 2004), they’ve already had a decent week and can grab their second win in this race. The Gosden yard have won this prize in 2011 and 2014 – they will be looking to add to that with Private Secretary, who has won his last three races. The last of those was a comfortable Listed success at Goodwood and he’s clearly going the right way, but this is also a big step up in grade so more is needed. Pondus and Pablo Escobarr are others with fair claims against the favourite, while Bangkok, who was down the field in the Derby will be hoping that it was maybe just the Epsom track that saw him run so badly last time. Prior to that Derby run, he’d won well twice and if finding that form again then could certainly bounce back.

3.40 – The Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) (Class 1) (3yo) 6f

Commonwealth Cup Recent Winners


2018 – Eqtidaar (12/1)
2017 – Caravaggio (5/6 fav)
2016 – Quiet Reflection (7/4 fav)
2015 – Muhaarar (10/1)

Commonwealth Cup Trends

4/4 – Won over 6f before
4/4 – Drawn 8 or lower
4/4 – Ran in the last month
3/4 – Won 3+ times before
3/4 – Had run at Ascot before
3/4 – Rated 117 or higher
2/4 – Winning favourite
2/4 – Came from stall 8
2/4 – Won last time out

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The top-rated TEN SOVEREIGNS will be very popular here after dropping back to 6f. He ran well in the 2,000 Guineas over a mile (5th) but you feel he might be more of a sprinter and his breeding suggests that too. Prior to that Newmarket run he was unbeaten (3-from-3) over this 6f trip, including beating another of today’s runners – Jash – in the Middle Park last term. Of the rest, the Charles Hills yard won this in 2015 and in Khaadem they’ve a live chance too. He’s won his last three races – all over this 6f trip – and deserves to take his chance in this higher grade. Hello Youmzain lowered the colours of the classy Calyx last time and will be out to prove that wasn’t a fluke – he can’t be underestimated. However, the main threat to the O’Brien horse can come from ADVERTISE. This 3 year-old didn’t stay in the Guineas last time and was also on his toes a bit before that race. The drop back in trip will help as he’s 3-from-4 over this 6f distance and was also second here in the Coventry Stakes last season. Frankie is in the saddle too and the first-time blinkers are an interesting addition.

 

4.20 – Coronation Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m

Coronation Stakes Past Winners

2018 – Alpha Centauri (11/4 fav)
2017 – Winter (4/9 fav)
2016 – Qemah (6/1)
2015 – Ervedya (3/1)
2014 – Rizeena (11/2)
2013 – Sky Lantern (9/2 jfav)
2012 – Fallen For You (12/1)
2011 – Immortal Verse (8/1)
2010 – Lillie Langtry (7/2 fav)
2009 – Ghanaati (2/1 fav)
2008 – Lush Lashes (5/1)
2007 – Indian Ink (8/1)
2006 – Nannina (6/1 jfav)
2005 – Maids Causeway (9/2)
2004 – Attraction (6/4 fav)
2003 – Russian Rhythm (4/7 fav)
2002 – Sophisticat (11/2)

Coronation Stakes Recent Trends

17/17 – Had won over at least 7f before
16/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs that season
13/17 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 previously
12/17 – Had won over at least a 1 mile before
9/17 – Had run at Ascot before (3 winners)
8/17 – Ran in that season’s English 1,000 Guineas
8/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
7/17 – Unplaced last time out
5/17 – Ran in that season’s Irish 1,000 Guineas
3/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
12 of the last 13 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
No winners from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
11 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 5 or higher
Just two horses placed from stall 2 (2nd ) in the last 13 runnings
7 of the last 13 winners were non UK-trained – French (3), Irish (4)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The likes of Pretty Pollyanna, Jubiloso and Castle Lady all have top form that would see them go close here, but this could be yet another race for the Aidan O’Brien yard. They run three, but their main player is clearly HERMOSA, who has won her last two, including beating Pretty Pollyanna by an easy 4 lengths in the Irish 1,000 Guineas last time out. Softer ground is fine if the ground doesn’t dry out but the manner of victory last time makes her the clear one to beat and if running to that level again it will be a tall order for the rest. Castle Lady landed the French 1,000 Guineas on heavy ground and is now 3-from-3 so certainly can’t be overlooked, while the Stoute runner – Jubiloso – is also unbeaten (2-from-2) and is clearly held in high regard to make the leap into a Group One so soon – I think it’s fait to say her trainer knows what he’s doing! However, of the bigger-priced ones the Johnston runner – MAIN EDITION (e/w) – might surprise. She improved on her return run to win the German 1,000 Guineas last time and that was her first try over a mile. She also won the Albany Stakes here last season (6f) so has tasted the meeting before and is actually the only proven course winner in the field.

 

5.00 – Sandringham Handicap (Listed Race) 1m


Sandringham Handicap Recent Winners

2018 – Agrotera (11/2 fav)
2017 – Con Te Partiro (20/1)
2016 – Persuasive (11/4 fav)
2015 – Osaila (13/2)
2014 – Muteela (9/2 fav)
2013 – Annecdote (11/1)
2012 – Duntle (4/1 fav)
2011 – Rhythm Of Light (8/1)
2010 – Timepiece (5/1)
2009 – Moneycantbuymelove (9/2 fav)
2008 – Festivale (10/1)
2007 – Barshiba (16/1)
2006 – Red Evie (5/1 co-fav)
2005 – Beautyandthebeast (9/2)
2004 – Celtic Heroine (11/1)
2003 – Hold To Ransom (11/1)
2002 – Tashawak (12/1)

 

Sandringham Handicap Trends

15/17 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Had between 2 and 4 previous runs that season
13/17 – Had never run at Ascot before
13/17 – Had won over at least 7f before
12/17 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
11/17 – Carried 8-11 or more
11/17 – Placed in their previous race
7/17 – Had exactly 3 runs already that season
8/17 – Won their last race
7/17 – Returned a double-figure price
6/17 – Winning favourites (1 co)
4/17 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
3/17 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (7 winners in all)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Considering the competitive nature of this race the favourites have a good record – winning 50% of the last 10 renewals. It’s interesting that 11 of the last 17 winners also carried 8-11 or more and this year only five runners fit the bill – MAGNETIC CHARM, CORAL BEACH, STAY CLASSY, ICE GALA and GYPSY SPIRIT. In recent years. there hasn’t really been a key draw stat either with winners from stall 1 up to stall 22. Recent winners, Invitational, Desirous, Nonchalance and Layaleena will all be popular, but I’ve been impressed with the way HOTSY TOTSY has been winning her races of late and she also represents last year’s winning trainer – Ed Walker. Those wins have been over 7f, but the step up to a mile looks well within range and jockey Jamie Spencer has also ridden the last two runnings of this race (4 in total). The Queen’s MAGNETIC CHARM, who I’ve already mentioned, will be the other I’m playing here. She is the top-rated in the field (105) but has been running well in better races than this. She won a Listed contest at York last time and draw 11 will give jockey James Doyle many options. Softer ground is a slight unknown, but hopefully it’s dry out a bit for the Royal runner.

 

5.35 – Duke of Edinburgh Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105) 1m4f

Duke of Edinburgh Past Winners

2018 – Dash Of Spice (7/2 fav)
2017 – Rare Rhythm (20/1)
2016 – Kinema (8/1)
2015 – Arab Dawn (6/1 jfav)
2014 – Arab Spring (11/4 fav)
2013 – Opinion (8/1)
2012 – Camborne (11/2 fav)
2011 – Fox Hunt (12/1)
2010 – Cill Rialaig (16/1)
2009 – Drill Sergeant (14/1)
2008 – Sugar Ray (8/1)
2007 – Pevensey (8/1)
2006 – Young Mick (28/1)
2005 – Notable Guest (4/1)
2004 – Wunderwood (15/2)
2003 – Waverley (14/1)

Duke of Edinburgh Key Trends

16/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
15/16 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
15/16 – Had at least 2 previous career wins to their name
13/16 – Carried 9-0 or more
12/16 – Placed last time out
11/16 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
9/16 – Trained by Hughie Morrison (3), Mark Johnston (2) or Sir Michael Stoute (4)
9/16 – Had won over 1m4f before
7/16 – Had run at Ascot before
7/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/16 – Ran at either York or Epsom last time (inc 7 of last 8 runnings)
5/16 – Unplaced favourites
5/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time
4/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/16 – Winning favourites
12 of the last 13 winners came from a double-figure stall

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A good race for the Hughie Morrison, Sir Michael Stoute and Mark Johnston yards – Morrison has Temple Church running, but that horse is currently first reserve so will need a dropout, but he also have CORGI running. This 4 year-old ran well to be third at York last time out and with that run coming off a 263 day break then he’s sure to have come on for it too. That was also his first run back from being gelded and having had a wind op so the signs were encouraging. He’s also tasted this meeting before, when running a close second in the King George V Stakes here last season. The winner that day – Baghdad – is also back for more and coming from the Mark Johnston yard and having a certain Ryan Moore riding then he’s going to attract a lot of interest too. He is rated 14lbs higher than 12 months ago though and even though he’s on the up still – has improved since last year – he’ll need another step forward here and might not be much value. No runners this season for the Stoute yard in the race, but certainly an interesting runner for the Gordon Elliott yard, who are 2 from 5 with their 4+ year-olds at the track, with LETHAL STEPS (e/w). He’s fit from running over hurdles and Jamie Spencer has been booked to ride. He’ll need to do better than his 19th (of 30) in the Britannia Stakes from last year but has been gelded since. Fujaira Prince looks the sort to go well too, but the final one to mention is the Gosden/Dettori partnership of BEN VRACKIE (e/w). This 4 year-old is the second highest-rated in the field and ran well last time to be a close third at HQ over this trip. He’s yet to finish out of the frame from three runs over the distance and despite not having run since last October is sure to be well tuned-up coming from the powerful Gosden yard and having a certain Frankie riding.

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