Newmarket July Meeting Trends & Tips – DAY TWO (Fri 12th July 2019)

Newmarket July Meeting Tips and Trends

The three-day 2019 Newmarket July Meeting continues on Friday (12th July) and with LIVE ITV races each day we’ve got everything covered from a trends and stats angle.

As we move into the second day (Gentleman’s Day) the Group Two Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (Cherry Hinton) and the Group One Falmouth Stakes take centre stagedid you know 13 of the last 17 Falmouth Stakes winners came from stalls 5 or lower?

As always, we are on hand to take you through each of the LIVE races, highlighting the main trends – use these to narrow down the runners and pin-point the best profiles of past winners of the race.

Enjoy!


Newmarket July Meeting – Day Two,
Friday 12th July 2019

 

1.50 – bet365 Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 1m2f ITV

11/12 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
10/12 – Had won between 1-2 times before
10/12 – Have never run at Newmarket (July) before
9/12 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Carried 8-12 or more in weight
9/12 – Placed in the top 6 last time out
7/12 – Unplaced favourites
6/12 – Irish bred
5/12 – Raced at Ascot last time out
6/12 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
6/12 – Trained by Mark Johnston (including 5 of last 6 runnings)
3/12 – Won last time out
2/12 – Trained by Andrew Balding
0/12 – Winning favourites
Communique (8/1) won the race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Tough race, with many chances, but it’s hard to get away from the records of both Andrew Balding and Mark Johnston – they’ve landed 8 of the last 12 runnings between them. Balding runs Good Birthday, who certainly has the form to go well, but does have to bounce back from a poor showing in the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. However, he didn’t seem to get home that day so the drop back to 1m2 is a plus. So, I’d rather have the two Johnston runners on side – THE TRADER and OASIS PRINCE. The later has won four of his last six, including last time out at Yarmouth and looks well worth a crack over this longer trip. The Trader was a beaten favourite last time out at Epsom, but has since been gelded and that could prove the key. The trip is fine and acts well on quick ground. Of the rest, Ryan Moore riding Walkinthesand for Richard Hannon will make him popular, but he’ll need to give weight away to all the others. Almashiriq and Alkaamel are others that can’t be ruled out, while if forgiving below-par runs last time out, Migration and Solid Stone would have the form to go well too.

2.25 – Duchess of Cambridge Stakes (Sponsored by Bet365) (Group 2) Cl1 6f ITV

15/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
15/15 – Had raced at least twice before
14/15 – Foaled in Feb (6) or March (6)
14/15 – Had won between 1-2 times before
13/15 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
12/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
11/15 – Won by a UK-based yard
10/15 – Ran at Ascot last time out
10/15 – Had won over 6f before
8/15 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
7/15 – Winning favourites
7/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Trained by the Hannon team
3/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/15 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (inc 2 of last 3)
2/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (4 wins in total)
1/15 – Drawn in stall 1
Pretty Pollyanna (20/1) won the race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Godolphin have two of the seven runners – Divine Spirit and Final Songof that pair Ryan Moore is an interesting booking for Final Song and she wasn’t disgraced when running Raffle Prize to third in the Queen Mary Stakes last time. The winner is in the race again here too and with Frankie in the plate will certainly have it’s supporters – she can go well. However, it was hard to not be impressed with the Varian runner – DAAHYEEH when winning the Albany Stakes last time out. She had another of today’s runner s- Celtic Beauty – back in third that day and is fully expected to uphold that form. That was only her second career run and should have more to come, while she also holds Raffle Prize when beating that horse on debut here on the Rowley Mile.

3.00 – bet365 Trophy (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (4yo+) 1m6f ITV

Just one previous running
The Charlie Appleby yard won this race in 2018
The Charlie Appleby yard have a 30% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track
The Mark Johnston yard have a 28% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track
The Andrew Balding yard are just 1 from 33 with their 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey PJ McDonald has a 38% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Andrea Atzeni has a 31% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey James Doyle has a 22% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Charlie Appleby yard targeted this race with success last season and also boast a cracking 30% record with their older horses at the track – they run SECRET ADVISOR (e/w) here. This 5 year-old was down the field in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Ascot, but the step up to 1m6f here looks a good move. That run also came off a 664 day break so can be expected to have come on for it and run a much better race this time. Ben Vrackie was second in that Ascot race so sets the standard, but although another big run is on the cards he’s become a horse that is placed more than winning. Outbox and King’s Advice are others to consider, while despite having an obvious chance, the Andrew Balding runner Caliburn is overlooked as the yard are just 1 from 33 with their older horses here.

3.35 – Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV

17/17 – Won a Listed or better class race previously
16/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/17– Won over at least 1 mile previously
13/17 – Won from stall 5 or lower
13/17 – Had 2+ runs that season
12/17 – Won at 13/2 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Ran at Ascot in their last race
10/17 – Favourites placed
7/17 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
6/17 – Had run on the Newmarket July course previously
6/17 – Previous Group One winners
5/17 – Won their last race
3/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 5)
2/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 3 runnings)
2/17 – French-trained winners
Alpha Centauri (4/9 fav) won the race in 2018
JUICESTORM VERDICT: Just the six runners this year for this Group One and the William Haggas yard have two of those – One Master and BESHAAYIR. The first-named is the top-rated in the field and ran a blinder to be third in the Queen Anne last time out. However, she was also beaten by her stablemate – Beshaayir before that in Ireland and I feel that form can be upheld. Frankie rides Beshaayir here and with I Can Fly 1 ½ lengths back in second in that Ireland race then she’s also got the beating of that O’Brien runner – Frankie rode that day too. If you do fancy the Ballydoyle runner then with the yard having won 2 of the last 3 this is a plus, but she’s become quite a hard horse to win with of late for me. Qabala enters the mix on her top third in the 1000 Guineas back in May, but needs to bounce back from flopping in the Irish version since – capable, but needs to bounce back. So, the other of interest is the Stoute runner – VERACIOUS. This 4 year-old ran a solid fourth in the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes last time out but should be much more at home on this quicker surface.

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