Bundles to enjoy on the horse racing front this week as it’s Derby Day at Epsom racecourse this weekend and like every Saturday we’ve got all the LIVE ITV races covered from a trends and stats angle, plus our free tips on each contest. Leading Irish handler – Aidan O’Brien – will be looking to land the Classic for a seventh time with another strong hand.
Did you know? 15 of the last 17 Epsom Derby winners had finished 1st or 2nd in their last race, while 11 of the last 17 Derby winners came from a single-figure stall?
Plus – supporting the big race, we’ve got four more LIVE races to take in that include the Epsom Dash, which is run over one of the quickest 5f courses in the world – blink and you’ll miss it! Don’t worry if your fancy here didn’t win last time out as the last 16 ticked that trend, while 13 of the last 17 came from stalls 8 or higher and were aged between 5-8 years-old.
As always, we’ve all the LIVE ITV races covered from a trends and stats angle here at JUICESTORM, plus our verdicts on each contest – use these key trends to find the best past profiles of past winners.
Let’s get going!
Saturday 1st June 2019
Epsom Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RUK)
2.00 – Investec Private Banking Handicap Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m2f18y ITV
16/16 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
14/16 – Never run at Epsom before
14/16 – Had won over 1m before (5 over 1m2f)
11/16 – Winners from stall 6 or higher
11/16 – Placed last time out
11/16 – Carried 8-10 or more
10/16 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
8/16 – Favourites that were placed
8/16 – Horses placed from stall 1
5/16 – Won their previous race
3/16 – Winners from stall 1
3/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/16 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute
3/16 – Won by trainer Sylvester Kirk
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 12/1
Stall 2 has just two places (1 win) to its name in the last 16 runnings
JUICESTORM VERDICT: With 11 of the last 16 winners coming from stalls 6 or higher, then this is good news for ALKAAMEL, VICTORY COMMAND, RED HOT and THE TRADER. The Mark Johnston yard clearly mean business in the race too, with three runners. Ryan Moore is an interesting booking for their Nayef Road, who is the clear to-rated in the field but as a result has to give a lot of weight away. He was last seen running 6th in the Dante to Derby hopeful Telecaster, while prior to that won a handicap easily at HQ – he’s now 9lbs higher. William Haggas has two runners too – Alkaamel and Politicise – both look to have leading chances too. But the two I like here are the only course winner in the field – LE DON DE VIE – and THE TRADER. The first-named won by a neck here in April but showed plenty of guts that day to suggest there is more to come. The slightly longer trip is a concern but he looks a stringer horse this season and his ability to handle the track is a big plus. The Trader will be ridden by Silvestre de Sousa, who has a 38% record when riding 3 year-olds here. He’s run well twice this season already and should be a lot fitter for those outings.
2.35 – Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Investec) (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m114y ITV
16/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
16/16 – Had won at Listed or Group 3 class before
14/16 – Drawn in stall 4,5,6, 7 or 8
14/16 – Favourites placed
13/16 – Finished in the top three last time out
13/16 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
13/16 – Had won over at least a mile before
13/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/16 – Had won between 4-6 times before
11/16 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
10/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/16 – Aged 4 years-old
9/16 – Winning favourites
8/16 – Had raced at Epsom before
8/16 – Won last time out
8/16 – Drawn in either stall 5 or 6
5/16 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4/16 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
3/16 – Won by a Cheveley Park-owned horse
2/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/16 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/16 – Trained by Roger Charlton
Jockeys Silvestre de Sousa (2), James Doyle (3) and Frankie Dettori (3) have won 8 of the last 9 runnings
Godolphin have won 3 of the last 9 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 4/1
JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Mark Johnston-trained Nyaleti will be popular as she rarely runs a bad race, but, having said that, is not an easy horse to win with. She’s without a victory in her last seven now, but after running in much better races should find this drop into a Group Three more to her liking. Awesometank, who will be ridden by James Doyle (3 wins in this race) and Anna Nerium are very closely-matched after the pair were separated by just a head at Goodwood last time out – both should be in the mix. The only course winner in the field is AKVAVERA (e/w) so despite having a bit to find on these terms her ability to handle the track is a plus and might be worth a small e/w interest. But the main pick here is the top-rated VERACIOUS. This is a race the Cheveley Park owners love to target – having won 3 of the last 16 – plus trainer Sir Michael Stoute also has a good record in the race. This 4 year-old was a fair fourth on her return run in the Group Two Dahlia Stakes at HQ last time out and should be a lot fitter for that. The first-time tongue-tie is an interesting addition and she holds Awesometank on form last year when winning the G3 Atalanta Stakes at Sandown.
3.10 – Investec Diomed Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m 114y ITV
16/16 – Had won over at least a mile before
14/16 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
14/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Had won at least 4 times before
13/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/16 – Aged 5 or older
13/16 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
12/16 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
11/16 – Had raced at Epsom before
12/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/16 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
5/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Andrew Balding
3/16 – Ridden by William Buick
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2
JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Sir Michael Stoute runner Zaaki will be popular after his comeback win at Ascot last month – he beat the classy Barney Roy that day and the form of that win has since been franked with the runner-up winning well in France. That form makes him the one to beat. However, it might not be easy having to give 12lbs to the 3 year-old BYE BYE HONG KONG. The Andrew Balding yard also have a good record in this race – 3 wins in the last 16 – and he’s hit the ground running this season with wins at Chelmsford and Windsor. The last of those saw him beat another of today’s runners – Oh This Is Us – by half a length and he’s expected to confirm that form – Silvestre De Sousa rides. Mordin is another alternative to those mentioned after a good win at Haydock last time out, but that was in a handicap so this step up in class means more is needed. Chief Ironside and Master The World have place claims too, but with just seven runners there are only two places on offer.
3.45 – Investec Corporate Banking “Dash” (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 5f ITV
Epsom Dash Betting Trends and Stats
16/17 – Didn’t win last time out
15/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks (12 within the last 4 weeks)
13/17 – Came from stall 8 or higher
13/17 – Won by horses aged between 5 and 8 years-old (inc)
13/17– Unplaced favourites
12/17 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
11/17 – Had raced at Epsom previously (4 had won)
11/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/17 – Horses from stall 1 that hit the frame
1/17 – Winning favourites
Caspian Prince won the race in 2016 and 2017
Duke Of Firenze won the race in 2013
The average winning SP in the last 16 renewals is 15.5/1
JUICESTORM VERDICT: Hathiq is set to be the likely favourite in the race. This Irish raider has won his last two in good fashion and could easily be a blot on the handicap. But he’s never raced here at Epsom and doesn’t look great value in a race as competitive as this. We’ve a couple of previous winners in the race in DUKE OF FIRENZE (e/w) and CASPIAN PRINCE (e/w) – both look to have fair chances again. The Duke, who is trained by Dave Griffiths, has won his last two – on the last two Saturday’s – and despite going up another 4lbs is still well treated off a mark of 89, considering he was rated 107 at the start of last season. He’s also still 8lbs lower than when winning this is 2013 and despite the fact he’s not getting any younger at 10, this trainer is a master at keeping these old sprinters at their peak and he’s proven that over the last few weekends. Caspian Prince blew away the cobwebs last time when 6th to Battaash at Haydock, but will find this drop back into a handicap a lot easier. He’s the top-rated in the field so it won’t be easy with 10-0 to carry and he’s 7lbs higher than his 2017 win in this race. However, he seems to love running at this track – 6 runs and 4 wins – so that must count for a lot. Of the rest, Dark Shot was close behind Duke Of Firenze last week and has gone well in this race before to suggest he can go close, while the consistent Copper Knight is another that should be in the mix. Griffiths also runs Ornate, who certainly has the form to go well. The key draw trend suggests to look for horses drawn 8 or higher – Duke is drawn 19 and Caspian 10. While Muthmir and Just That Lord, who is another proven CD winner here are others to note.
4.30 – Investec Derby (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 1m4f10y ITV
Epsom Derby Betting Trends and Stats
16/17 – Raced no more than 5 times before
16/17 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
15/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
15/17 – Had won a Group race before
12/17 – Favourites that were placed
11/17 – Won from a single-figure stall
11/17 – Won last time out
11/17 – Had run over at least 1m2f before
10/17 – Had raced no more than 3 times before
8/17 – Had won a Group One before
8/17 – Irish-trained winners
6/17 – Won by the favourite
5/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won 6 in all)
5/17 – Ran in the 2,000 Guineas that season (2 winners)
4/17 – Won the Dante Stakes (York) last time out
3/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won 5 in all)
3/17 – Winners from stall 12 or higher
1/17 – Won over 1m4f before
0/17 – Run at the course before
0/17 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 13/2
10 Dante winners went onto win the Derby (Golden Horn, 2015 being the most-recent)
Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby
Epsom Derby Trainer Stats
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013, 2014 & 2017
JUICESTORM VERDICT: Dante winner – Telecaster – was supplemented for the Derby at a cost of £85k so connections will be hoping to recoup that with at least a top four finish. He’s a fast-improving colt and Dante winners to have a good recent record of following up in the Derby – he’s one for the shortlist. However, it’s a race that is again dominated by the Aidan O’Brien yard, with seven of the 13 runners. They don’t always win it with their main one in the betting either so it’s hard to put you off any – two years ago they won it with a 40/1 shot! Broome, Japan, who was fourth in the Dante, and Anthony Van Dyck, who won the Lingfield Derby Trial easily, are all big players for the yard. Broome has won two Group Three’s in easy fashion and looks a very useful prospect. However, it’s still hard to get away from their SIR DRAGONET, who went into many a notebook when landing the Chester Vase – beating stablemate, Norway, by 8 lengths. That was only this Camelot colt’s second run and even though he still looked green – once the penny dropped he looked a class act. There should be a lot more to come. Yes, the quicker ground here and the track unknown is a small concern but he showed the ability to handle the tricky Chester course last time and that would have taught him a lot. Of the rest, Bangkok actually beat Telecaster at Doncaster earlier this season so has to have a big say too – he’s looked impressive since stepping up in trip to 1m2f and there could be more to come now upped to 1m4f. If you can forgive it’s poor last run then Godolphin’s Line Of Duty could bounce back – his form prior to that Dante flop was decent but he’ll need to prove he gets the trip. But the other one of interest is another O’Brien runner – CIRCUS MAXIMUS (e/w). This 3 year-old won the Dee Stakes at Chester last time in workmanlike fashion but the extra 2 furlongs here look a big plus. He looked better the further they went last time at Chester and it’s interesting the cheekpieces are on for the first time. Of the bigger-priced O’Brien runners, he looks the most interesting to me.
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