Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 15th June 2019

Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends

We Head to Chester, York and Sandown this Saturday……….

Okay, it’s probably not a Saturday most horse racing fans circle as a ‘must-see’ weekend but that’s often the case when there is a huge meeting just around the corner. Yes, Royal Ascot gets going next Tuesday so we’ve plenty to look forward to there, however, before that we’ve still got seven LIVE ITV races to take in this weekend across three venues.

Chester, York and Sandown are the tracks hosting the ITV cameras and with a couple of Listed races, plus several competitive handicaps there’s still plenty to get stuck into.

As always, we’ve all the LIVE ITV races covered from a trends and stats angle here at JUICESTORM, plus our verdicts on each contest – use these key trends to find the best past profiles of past winners.

Let’s get going!

 

Saturday 15th June 2019

Sandown Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)

2.05 – Randox Health Scurry Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f6y ITV4

14/14 – Returned 11/1 or shorter
12/14 – Had won over 5f before
11/14 – Placed favourites
10/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/14 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
9/14 – Had won at least 3 times before
9/14 – Came from stall 7 or higher
9/14 – Irish bred
7/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
7/14 – Winning favourites
7/14 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
6/14 – Had won a Listed or Group 3 race before
5/14 – Ran at either Haydock (3) or Beverley (2) last time out
2/14 – Trained by Michael Bell
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Course and distance winners – Leodis Dream and Well Done Fox – can go well but both also need to bounce back from below-par recent runs. Of the pair, WELL DONE FOX, who is the top-rated in the field, gets the nod as he’s gone well with cut before and his jockey Silvestre De Sousa also has a 32% record riding 3 year-olds at the track – that first run should have also brought him on. Wise Words is probably the in-form runner heading into the race after two recent wins, but this is a step up in grade and she’s untried on ground this soft. Street Parade and the French raider El Guanche have the form to go close too, but the call here is KURIOUS. This Henry Candy runner was a close second to Leodis Dream over 5f here in April, but has acted well on soft ground and has also won over further. She was staying on well over this trip last time but the deeper ground will make his more of a test so should be well suited conditions.

 

3.15 – Randox Health Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 1m ITV4

7 previous runnings
6/7 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Didn’t win last time out
6/7 – Had won between 2-4 times before
6/7 – Had won over 1m before
6/7 – Rated between 90-94
6/7 – Carried 9-5 or more in weight
5/7 – Aged 4 years-old
5/7 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
5/7 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
4/7 – Ran at either Sandown (2) or Newmarket (2) last time out
4/7 – Had run at the course before
3/7 – Winning favourites
2/7 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Via Serendipity (4/1) won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 5/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Just the seven previous runnings to go on here but still some fair stats building up. With 5 of the last 7 winners coming from stalls 6 or higher then that’s a potential negative for those drawn low – Zap, Loch Ness Monster, History Writer, Sawwaah and Thrave. Six of the last 7 winners were also rated between 90-94 – this would be a plus for the likes of History Writer, Thrave, Azzeccagabugli, Zap, Sawwaah, Masham Star and Pattie. CD winner Greenside rarely runs a bad race and looks another set to go well, but with 4 year-olds having won 5 of the last 7 renewals then BALTIC BROWN (e/w) and Hateya also look interesting. Both come here off the back of good last runs, but with Oisin Murphy booked to ride the O’Meara-trained Baltic Brown this one gets the call. He was an excellent second at Nottingham last time out on his return run and also debut outing for his yard. This former French-trained horse has decent form with give in the ground too and can be expected to have come on a lot for that last run.

 

York Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)

1.50 – Queen Mother´s Cup (Lady Amateur Riders) (Handicap) Cl3 1m4f ITV4

14/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
14/16 – Carried 9-11 or more
14/16 – Had run over 1m4f or further previously
13/16 – Had at least 2 previous runs already that season (flat)
13/16 – Aged 6 or younger
12/16 – Had won over 1m4f or further before
12/16 – Rated between 80-89
12/16 – Won from a single-figure stall
11/16 – Favourites placed in the top four
11/16 – Had run at York before
10/16 – Winning distance – 3/4 length or less
9/16 – Had won at least 3 times before (flat)
8/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
7/16 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
6/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
4/16 – Winners that came from stalls 3 or 4
4/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/16 – Won by trainer Tim Easterby
3/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Won by trainer Luca Cumani
2/16 – Ridden by Miss J Coward
2/16 – Placed horses from stall 2
Mister Belvedere (20/1) won the race in 2018
Tapis Libre (8/1) won the race in 2017

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The hat-trick seeking Makawee will be popular here for the David O’Meara yard – he’s a proven course and distance winner too and has a top lady jockey booked in Jo Mason, who won this race in 2018. The Dods yard took the race last year and try again – this time with Billy No Mates. The experienced Serena Brotherton rides Where’s Jeff – she won the race in 2014 and looks to have another good chance with this last time out winner, who is only 3lbs higher than last time. It might be something of nothing, but 25% of the last 16 winners came from stalls 3 or 4 – so, with that in mind, Mister Manduro and Breath Caught are ones to have in your sights. However, it might be worth taking a chance on TAPIS LIBRE (e/w), who won this race in 2017, and MULTELLIE (e/w) – a horse that hails from the Tim Easerby yard that have won this race three times since 2011. Yes, Tapis Libre is an 11 year-old now, but he ran well enough last time (4th) to suggest there is still something left and won’t mind the softer ground – he’s 3lbs lower than 2018 too. Multellie has been below-par of late but has won on soft and the record of his stable means he commands respect. He might be a tad high in the ratings still, but is only 3lbs higher than his last win and if past seasons are anything to go by then he’s needed a few runs to get going, which he’s now had.

 

2.25 – JCB Handicap Cl2 7f ITV4

Only 4 previous runnings
4/4 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
4/4 – Unplaced favourites
4/4 – Had raced at York before
3/4 – Rated between 90-99
3/4 – Aged 4 years-old
3/4 – Came from a single-figure stall
3/4 – Won over 7f before
2/4 – Came from stall 9
0/4 – Winning favourites
Above The Rest (16/1) won the race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The 8 year-old Above The Rest took this race 12 months ago so can’t be ruled out off a 2lb lower mark. 4 year-olds have a good record so of the 20 runners – Desert Doctor, Great Prospector, Aljady, Lord Oberon, Staxton, Blizzard and Three Saints Bay will have this in their favour. Of that bunch, GREAT PROSPECTOR (e/w) and BLIZZARD (e/w) get the thumbs-up. The first-named does have a bit to prove over this 7f trip, with his sole career win coming over 6f. However, the form of his recent third to Safe Voyage has been more than boasted since and hopefully Paul Hanagan can nurse him into the race to get the trip. Blizzard, on the other hand, is a proven distance winner. He’s not been seen since last November but won a Listed race over in France. That came with plenty of cut in the ground too and at just 4 year-old there is every chance he’s strengthened up over the winter. The Ralph Beckett yard also boast a decent 22% record with their 4+ year-olds at the track. Others to note are Hyperfocus, who won well last time out, the consistent Hayadh, Lord Oberon, who represents the winning yard (Karl Burke) of 2016, while Ryan Moore catches the eye being booked to ride the Ian Williams-trained Aces.

 

3.00 – Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Grand Cup Stakes (Listed Race) Cl (4yo+) 1m6f ITV4

10/11 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
10/11 – Had raced in the last 2 months
10/11 – Officially rated 103 or higher
9/11 – Placed favourites
9/11 – Drawn in stalls 1-7 (inc)
9/11 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
9/11 – Won at least 4 times before (flat)
8/11 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
6/11 – Winning favourites
4/11 – Won last time out
4/11 – Ran at the track before
2/11 – Trained by Peter Niven
2/11 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
2/11 – Winners from stall 1
Marmelo won the race in 2018
Clever Cookie won the race in 2014 & 2015
Note: The 2014 running was a dead-heat

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Mark Johnston yard have a decent hand here with Austrian School and Making Miracles in the race – both have the form to go well. Desert Skyline and Gold Mount are others to consider, but the clear pick here is the Sir Michael Stoute-trained MEKONG. This 4 year-old will have Ryan Moore doing the steering and the form of his recent second to Ascot Gold Cup hopeful – Dee Ex Bee – has a very solid feel to it. We can expect him to have come on a lot for that effort too and if any more rain comes, he’s won on heavy. The drop back to 1m6f will be fine as he’s a winner over this trip, but does also stay further and this is also a slight drop in grade for the horse after running in that Group Three last time.

 

3.35 –Pavers Foundation Catherine Memorial Sprint (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV4

12/14 – Rated between 87-97
12/14 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
12/14 – Had won over 6f before
10/14 – Unplaced favourites
11/14 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/14 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Had won between 1-2 times before
6/14 – Irish bred
7/14 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Won by trainer Tim Easterby (inc 3 of the last 6 runnings)
2/14 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
1/14 – Winners from stall 1
8 of the last 11 winners came from a single-figure draw

JUICESTORM VERDICT: A very open and competitive contest. With 12 of the last 14 winners rated 87-97 then of the 22 runners the horses from 4 to 22 fit the bill, with only Blown By Wind, Barbill and Dazzling Dan falling down. 8 of the last 11 winners did, however, come from a single-figure draw. So, RECON MISSION, DAVE DEXTER, SECRET VENTURE, YOUSINI, LUXOR, TRIPPERED and MORAAWED look to be the ones to focus on. Of that bunch the Roger Varian runner – MORAAWED (e/w) is certainly of interest in the first-time blinkers. This 3 year-old has just under 3 lengths to find with Dazzling Dan on their last run but has a 4lbs weight pull this time. He also didn’t get the clearest of runs that day so would have certainly finished closer. The other improver in the race could be the Ralph Beckett-trained DAVE DEXTER (e/w). He was a fair 5th last Saturday at Haydock in a Listed race, but this drop into a handicap will make life easier. Softer ground is fine too and has winning form at a higher level (Listed winner) to suggest he’ll be a force in this sort of race. Of the rest, recent winners Victory Day and Rathbone are others to note but will need to defy further rises in the ratings.

 

Chester Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.40 – City of London Handicap (Cl2) (3yo 0-100) 1m4f ITV4

One previous running
Trainer Andrew Balding won the race in 2018
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute has a 25% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Mick Channon is just 1 from 26 with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Nicola Currie has a 67% record riding 3 year-olds at the track
The 2018 winner came from stall 4

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Another tight handicap here but it’s a race the Andrew Balding yard have targeted in the past, so their LARIAT gets the call. This 3 year-old was runner-up the last three times but one of those was a second here over course and distance (May). That track experience will be a big plus and in this slightly better race he’ll have a lighter racing weight to carry – that should be a big help in conditions. Of the rest, the Gosden runner – Waldstern, who makes his handicap debut here can go well – he was fourth in a Listed race to Norway last season and that’s decent form. Gabrial The One is the only CD winner in the field and runs for Mr Chester – Dr Marwan Koukash – so is another to note off just 8-4 in weight, but does have to defy another 4lb hike in the ratings. Durston, Prefontaine and the very consistent Gravistas are others that head into the race off the back of very good recent runs and are sure to have a lot of supporters too.

 

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