Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends: Sat 10th Aug 2019

Free horse racing tips and trends

This week the ITV4 cameras are at Ascot racecourse for their popular Shergar Cup meeting. This unique fixture splits the horses in each race into four teams – Europe, Great Britain & Ireland, Rest Of The World and Girls – with each horse being allocated team points based on their finishing positions. It’s a ‘love it, or hate it’ format but is now a regular on the calendar each summer – so who will come out on top in 2019?

For those that aren’t familiar with the format, it’s four teams – Europe, Great Britain & Ireland, The Girls and Rest Of The World. What this means is jockeys that fit into one of those four categories will ride against each other to try and score points for their teams.

The better position that jockey finishes in the race, then the more points they get. The team with the best overall points after the last race will be the 2019 Shergar Cup winners.

This year, Tadhg O’Shea, Filip Minarik, Yuga Kawada and Hayley Turner are the team captains this year.

The Shergar Cup Teams In Full

Girls: Hayley Turner, Jamie Kah and Nanako Fujita
Great Britain and Ireland: Tadhg O’Shea, Danny Tudhope and Jamie Spencer
Rest Of The World: Yuga Kawada, Vincent Chak-Yiu Ho and Mark Zahra
Europe: Filip Minarik, Gerald Mosse and Adrie de Vries

As well as Ascot, the ITV cameras are also at Newmarket and Haydock to take in three more races with the Group Three Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Haydock) and the Sweet Solera Stakes (Newmarket) their feature races.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the big fields – So, let’s get started!

 

Saturday 10th August 2019

ASCOT Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/ATR)

1:05 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Dash (Handicap) Cl2 5f ITV4

11/11 – Failed to win their last race
10/11 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/11 – Raced at Ascot previously
10/11 – Carried 9-3 or more weight
10/11 – Had 4 or more runs that season
10/11 – Priced 6/1 or shorter in the betting market
8/11 – Won at least 3 times in their career
7/11 – Favourites  placed
6/11 – Had won over 5f previously
5/11 – Raced at Ascot last time out
5/11 – Favourites (1 joint)
5/11 – Winning distance – 1 or more lengths
3/11 – Trained by Robert Cowell (including 2 of the last 5 runnings)
2/11 – Won by the Andrew Balding yard
Tis Marvellous (6/1) won the race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Trainer Robert Cowell has a good recent record in this race – winning it twice since 2014 – so his Encore D’Or will be trying to add to those successes. The speedy Mick Appleby-trained Caspian Prince can be expected to make a bold bid from the front but at the age of 10 years-old isn’t getting any younger, while the Appleby yard also run DANZENO – who has won two of his last three and is a past CD winner – he looks a big player. It’s also interesting that 4 and 5 year-olds have won 10 of the last 11 runnings of this race, so with that in mind only CORINTHIA KNIGHT, Stone Of Destiny, who hails from the Balding yard that have also got a good record in the race, and one of the reserves – Green Power – fit the bill. Of that trio, the first-named gets the nod. This 4 year-old was a good winner at Pontefract last time out and despite a 6lb rise won with enough in-hand to think he can go in again with this 5f trip looking his best these days.

1.40 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Stayers (Handicap) Cl2 2m ITV4

14/15 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Carried 8-13 or more
12/15 – Had raced within the last 2 weeks
12/15 – Rated between 86-94
12/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/15 – Had won between 2-5 times before (flat)
12/15 – Had raced at the track before
11/15 – Favourites placed in the top 4
10/15 – Ran at either Ascot (5) or Goodwood (5) last time out
10/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/15 – Trained by Ian Williams
1/15 – Won last time out
Cleonte (9/2) won the race in 2018
No winner from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
3 of the last 10 winners came from stall 9
Horses from stall 9 placed in the top three in 6 of the last 12 runnings

JUICESTORM VERDICT: What A Welcome has lost his way a bit this season, but is the only proven CD winner in the field so can’t be discounted. However, with this being another good race for 4 and 5 year-olds and also the Ian Williams yard having a decent strike-rate in the race, then their runners TIME TO STUDY and BLUE LAUREATE are the ones to focus on. The first-named needs to bounce back from some average runs but is down the ratings as a result and the step back up to 2m will help. The horse also ran well at the Royal Meeting here back in June over 2m4f so we know he stays further than this too. Blue Laureate is also worth an interest after some consistent runs, including when third here over this trip last time out. Of the rest, the consistent Lorelina and Billy Ray can go well, while Grandee is another that has been running well of late.

2.15 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Challenge (Handicap) Cl3 1m4f ITV4

14/15 – Aged 6 or younger
13/15 – Officially rated between 87-94
13/15 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
13/15 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
13/15 – Won over 1m3f (or further) previously
12/15 – Won between 1-4 times previously
9/15 – Aged 4 years-old
9/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting market
8/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
7/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/15 – Priced 9/1 or bigger in the betting market
6/15 – Had run at Ascot previously
5/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Won by the Paul Cole yard
2/15 – Favourites that won
Genetics (9/1) won the race in 2018
One winner from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
3 of the last 13 winners came from stall 5
9 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 5-8 (inc)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Just one winner from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings so if the reserve – Breath Caught – gets in he’ll have this stat to overcome. Koeman is a past CD winner and we’ve also got last year’s winner in the race – GENETICS (e/w). He’s up 8lbs from last year’s success but did win by 12 lengths that day so is certainly capable of defying the bigger burden. The Andrew Balding yard like to target this meeting and the horse heads here off the back of some solid recent runs. The hat-trick seeking Mandarin will be popular too after a couple of good wins, but is up again in the handicap (6lbs) so more is needed. Indianapolis can’t be ruled out either, but it might be worth giving another chance to MELTING DEW (e/w). This 5 year-old has been poor so far this season, but there was a glimmer of a return to form last time and is also dropped 3lbs. It’s interesting the Stoute team are sticking with him too.

2.50 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Mile (Handicap) Cl2 1m ITV4

15/15 – Won over at least a mile before
15/15 – Failed to win last time out
15/15 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
14/15 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/15 – Rated between 92-100
14/15 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
13/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Won between 2-4 times before
10/15 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
10/15 – Had run at Ascot before
4/15 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
3/15 – Trained by Andrew Balding
3/15 – Winning favourites
Via Serendipity (7/2) won the race in 2018
3 of the last 13 winners came from stall 1
11 or the last 14 winners returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Yet another good race for the 4 and 5 year-olds so it might be worth sticking with last year’s winner – VIA SERENDIPITY. This 5 year-old is gets in off the same mark as 12 months ago too and despite not winning yet this term has run some solid races in defeat. The hat-trick seeking Nicholas T is having a cracking season too and should go well but will have to defy another rise in the ratings. Power Of Darkness won well last time and could easily defy a 3lb rise, while course winners Zwayyan and Zhui Feng often go well here too. The former – ZWAYYAN (e/w) – might be worth and interest too though as the Balding yard have done well in this race before too. As mentioned, he’s a proven course winner, and will be a lot fitter for his recent Hunt Cup run, on ground that was plenty soft enough. He was also third in this race 12 months ago so it’s clearly been a target for a while.

3.25 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Classic (Handicap) (Bobis Race) Cl3 1m4f – ITV4

10 previous runnings
10/10 – Raced 3 or more times that season
8/10 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
8/10 – Won over 1m2f or further previously
8/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
7/10 – Officially rated between 84-90
4/10 – Raced at Ascot last time out
4/10 – Favourites placed
2/10 – Favourites that won
2/10 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/10 – Trained by Richard Hannon
Berkshire Blue (9/2) won the race in 2018
7 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 5, 7 or 8

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With 7 of the last 10 winners coming from stalls 5, 7 or 8 then horses Sophosc, Never Do Nothing and Aspire Tower look to have this as a plus. 7 of the last 10 winners were also rated between 84 and 90, so this brings Sophosc, Rowland Ward, Asian Angel, Sapa Inca, Aspire Tower and Never Do Nothing into the mix. Of that bunch, the consistent SAPA INCA looks the most reliable. This Mark Johnston-trained runner has finished in the top three in her last 7 races and ran well again last time at Goodwood (2nd). She’s taking her racing well and looks sure to be in the mix. Johnston also runs Vivid Diamond, that has been running well in recent weeks and Asian Angel too, who can go well if you can forgive his last run. The Andrew Balding runner – Never Do Nothing – can’t be discounted either, but it’s the Ralph Beckett runner – ROWLAND WARD – that I’m also going to be playing. This 3 year-old was a good second at Ripon last time out but should have come on for the run as it came off a break and it’s also interesting the blinkers are on today after getting slowly into stride the last day.

4.00 – Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Sprint (Handicap) (Bobis Race) Cl2 6f ITV4

15/15 – Carried 8-12 or more in weight
14/15 – Ran within the last 4-5 weeks<
13/15 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting market
13/15 – Won over 6f previously
13/15 – Carried 9-1 or more in weight
12/15 – Won between 2-3 times previously
11/15 – Officially rated between 86-95
10/15 – Came from the top three in the betting market
10/15 – Priced 6/1 or shorter in the betting market
10/15 – Favourites placed
7/15 – Had run at Ascot previously
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Won by the Roger Charlton yard
3/15 – Winning Favourites
Green Power (12/1) won the race in 2018
6 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 5-8 (inc)

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Victory Day will be popular here for the William Haggas yard, but the horse also might not be much value in the betting and might be vulnerable to something with a tad more experience. HERO HERO might be worth chancing though – he was down the field here in the Britannia Stakes at the Royal Meeting but that came over 1m so the drop back in trip (6f) looks a good move. Prior to that last run this Andrew Balding runner had run well over this trip and won over 7 ½ furlongs. He stays a bit further than this, but that proven stamina will be a plus on this stiffer track and a 2 month break should have be ready to rumble again. Pass The Vino, Jack’s Point, Kinks and Junius Brutus are others to note.

HAYDOCK Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)


1.55 – Vulcan Village Handicap (London Mile Series Qualifier) Cl3 (3yo+) 1m ITV4

10/10 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/10 – Didn’t win last time out
9/10 – Won between 1-4 times before
9/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
8/10 – Drawn in stalls 6 or lower
7/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/10 – Carried between 9-0 and 9-6
7/10 – Won over 1m before
6/10 – Irish bred
5/10 – Horses from stall 5 finished in the top 2
3/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11.5/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: For whatever reason, the horse from stall 5 has finished in the top two in five of the last 10 runnings – Young Fire will be hoping to continue that trend. MAYFAIR SPIRIT (e/w) has done really well of late though and seems to love it here at Haydock. He’s up 4lbs for his last win here and should have more to come. Course winners, Scofflaw and King’s Pavilion are others that like the track, but with 8 of the last 10 winners drawn 6 or lower then HUMBLE GRATITUDE (e/w) and CLUB WEXFORD (e/w) are the other two I’ll be playing here. The first-named is up just 5lbs for actually beating Club Wexford last time at Chester, so there shouldn’t be a lot between the pair again. Club Wexford gets in off the same mark, but the slightly longer trip and the return to Haydock look in his favour.

2.30 – British Stallion Studs EBF Dick Hern Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m ITV4

8/8 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/8 – Didn’t win last time out
8/8 – Won between 1-3 times
6/8 – Rated between 94-100
6/8 – Drawn between stalls 5-8
5/8 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
5/8 – Ran at Ascot or Newmarket last time out
2/8 – Trained by William Haggas
2/8 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
1/8 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 9/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With 6 of the last 8 winners coming between stalls 5-8 then New Day Dawn, Muchly, Red Starlight and Agincourt will have this as a plus. It’s also a race the William Haggas yard like to do well in, so their runner – MISS O CONNOR, who has won her last two looks the most interesting. This 4 year-old has won her two starts to date and was an easy 11 length winner at Nottingham last time out. Yes, that came on softer ground than she might get here, but she still looks a highly-promising filly that can go onto better things. The other unbeaten runner – Feliciana De Vega – will be popular too after wins at Newmarket and Deauville. She’s not been out since December, but is another that’s done little wrong and could easily be tuned-up to take this. Muchly and Agincourt have the form to go well too, but the form of Maid For Life’s recent win at Goodwood took a knock in the week with the runner-up getting turned over as an odds-on favourite.

3.05 – Smarkets Betting Exchange Rose of Lancaster Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f95y ITV4

16/16 – Aged 5 or younger
14/16 – Officially rated 105 or higher
13/16 – Yet to run at Haydock
13/16 – Favourites placed
13/16 – Aged either 3 or 5 years-old
13/16 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ or more
12/16 – Won a Listed or better class race before
12/16 – Won over 1m2f or further
12/16 – Raced 3 or more previous runs that season
11/16 – Officially rated between 105 and 110
11/16 – Won 3 or more times during their career
10/16 – Raced at either Newbury, York or Sandown last time out
9/16 – Priced 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/16 – Finished unplaced in their last race
4/16 – Favourites that won
3/16 – Won by the Mark Johnston yard
2/16 – Won by Sir Michael Stoute yard
Teodoro (10/1) won the race in 2018

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Pondus was well-supported last time to run second at Newbury in a similar race, but, for me, still have a bit to prove at this level. Raise You and Wadilsafa have the form to go well too, but this looks between Wissahickon, with Frankie and John Gosden teaming-up and the Haggas runner – Addeybb. The former has won two of his three starts on the turf, but does have to bounce back from losing at 1/3 in the Easter Classic at Lingfield. He’s the top-rated in the field and will be better for a recent break, but it won’t be easy having to give 3lbs to ADDEYBB. This 5 year-old dotted up in the Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot and then ran well in the Group Two Duke Of York Stakes last time. This drop in grade will help and he’s also a course winner here. The 3lbs he gets off the Gosden horse makes him the one to beat.

NEWMARKET (JULY) Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/RacingTV)

3.45 – german-thoroughbred.com Sweet Solera Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV4

15/16 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
14/16 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
14/16 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting market
14/16 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting market
14/16 – Won by a Jan, Feb or March foal
13/16 – Won just once previously
12/16 – Had won over only 6f previously
10/16 – Favourites placed
10/16 – Raced at Newmarket (July) previously
9/16 – Won their last race
9/16 – Raced at Newmarket (6) or Sandown (3) last time out
8/16 – Yet to win over 7f
8/16 –  Favourites that won
7/16 – Had just one previous run
5/16 – Won by Godolphin
3/16 – Trained by the Hills stable
Tajaanus (7/4 fav) won the race in 2018
2 winners from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
4 of the last 12 horses from stall 7 finished 1st (2) or 2nd (2)

 

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Godolphin have a good record in this race – winning 5 of the last 16 – so the call here is their LIGHT BLUSH. This 2 year-old was a good winner here over CD back in July and wasn’t disgraced next time when a close second in a Listed race at Sandown. That proven CD experience is a plus and unlike a lot of the others is at least proven over this 7f trip. Another course winner – Ultra Violet – went into many a notebook after her debut win at HQ too. That was by 8 lengths and even though more is needed here in this better race, she remains a filly of high potential. Soffika, West End Girl and Dark Lady are others to consider, while the Peter Chapple-Hyam runner –ANANYA (e/w) – might also be worth a small interest from those at bigger prices. She won well at the track last time out, albeit in a much lesser race, but did it nicely (4 ½ lengths) and deserves to take her chance in this better race.

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