Free Horse Racing Tips & Trends from Sandown (Fri 26th April 2019)

Horse racing tips and trends

Plenty to look forward to this Friday as the ITV cameras head to Sandown Park for their opening day of their two-day mixed flat and jumps meeting. We get going on Friday (26th April) with four LIVE flat races on the card that include the Bet365 Mile, Classic Trial, Gordon Richard Stakes and the Esher Cup.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

 

SANDOWN HORSE RACING TRENDS (RacingTV/ITV)

 

1.50 – bet365 Esher Cup (Handicap) Cl2 1m14y ITV4

16/16 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
16/16 – Had won no more than twice before
14/16 – Never raced at Sandown before
13/16 – Had won just once before
12/16 – Had between 2-4 runs before
12/16 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
12/16 – Priced 17/2 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
10/16 – Had won over at least 1 mile before
9/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/16 – Unplaced favourites
7/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Raced at Kempton last time out
3/16 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
2/16 – Trained by John Gosden
2/16 – Trained by the Hannon stable
2/16 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: With ALL of the last 16 winners carrying 9-4 or less in weight then the top two on the card – Masaru and Purs Puissant have this to overcome. In fact, 11 of the last 16 winners won with just 8-12 or less on their backs, while with jockey Silvestre De Sousa having a good record in this race too then the Andrew Balding runner – FOX LEICESTER – is the call. This 3 year-old gets in with 8-11 in weight and created an excellent impression last time out when winning by 3 lengths at Chelmsford. He’s also gone well in softer ground so if the rain comes that will be fine, plus draw 9 looks okay too. He’ll be fitter than most with that recent run under his belt and even though he’s highly-tried in a handicap for the first time, I think he’s got in here on a fair opening mark. Of the rest, the others that fit the key weight stat are Migration, Reggae Runner, Lestrade and Starfighter – of that quartet the Mark Johnston-trained REGGAE RUNNER can give the selection most to think about. Reeves and House Of Kings are others that can’t be ruled out.

2.25 – bet365 Gordon Richards Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f7y ITV4

15/16 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
15/16 – Officially rated 110 or higher
14/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/16 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Had won a Group race before
13/16 – Had won at least twice (UK) before
11/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/16 – Placed favourites
10/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/16 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
7/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
7/16 – Irish bred
5/16 – Had run at Sandown before
5/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
4/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/16 – Trained by John Gosden
3/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Ridden by James Doyle
Crystal Ocean (Evs) won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Thundering Blue did really well last season and is a proven course and distance winner here at the track so enters the mix, while the French raider – Trais Fluors – is probably not coming over for a day out so can go well too. The Queen’s Fabricate was a narrow loser in the race last year so is another to consider, but it’s the horse that beat him – CRYSTAL OCEAN – that really should be taking this. This Sir Michael Stoute runner is rated 125 and the clear top-rated in the field – 7lbs higher than anything else. Last season he rose up the ranks to win the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot and then was a gutsy runner-up in the King George at Ascot. From 12 runs he’s also yet to finish out of the top three (5 wins), so doesn’t know how to run a bad race. He’s gone well fresh in the past too, so the 188 day break is not a concern – he should be hard to beat back into a Group Three.

 

3.00 – bet365 Classic Trial (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f7y ITV4

13/15 – Won between 1-3 times before
13/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Never raced at Sandown before
11/15 – Had won over at least 1m before
10/15 – Placed in the top 2 last time out
9/15 – Irish bred winners
8/15 – Raced at Leopardstown (2), Curragh (2) or Newbury (4) last time out
7/15 – Horses drawn in stall 4 that finished in the first 3
7/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Trained by John Gosden
3/15 – Winners from stall 4
3/15 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/15 – Ridden by William Buick
2/15 – Winners from stall 3
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Andrew Balding runner – Bangkok – will be popular here after winning well on his return run at Doncaster last month. However, this step into Group company means another step up is needed and he might not be much value in the betting. Technician and Persian Moon have the form to get involved too, but it’s interesting that the John Gosden yard fired two bullets at this race in Travel On and Alfaatik. The yard has won 5 of the last 15 runnings of this so if the odds allow you might even be able to split stakes across his two. Frankie rides Travel On, who won easily last time out at Lingfield at odds-on. That came over 1m4f so we know he’ll stay further than this but the one niggle is that he’s 0-from-3 on the turf. So, even though both Gosden horses catch the eye for the purpose of sticking my neck out his ALFAATIK gets the nod. This 3 year-old won on debut back in December over this trip at Chelmsford but is also entered in the Derby and Dante Stakes so is clearly well thought of. Jim Crowley rides this Al Maktoum runner, while even though the first-time blinker might set some alarm bells off I think it’s more that he ran very green last time and connections just want to keep his mind on the job. He’ll have got a lot stronger over the last four months and might just have the more scope to improve than some of the others.

 

3.35 – bet365 Mile (Group 2) Cl1 1m14y ITV4

14/15 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Had won a Group race before
12/15 – Had won over a mile before
11/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/15 – Had won 5 or more times before
11/15 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
9/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/15 – Placed favourites
8/15 – Aged 4 years-old
8/15 – Trained by the Hannon stable
7/15 – Winning favourites
6/15 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/15 – Horses drawn in stall 3 that finished second
5/15 – Had run at Sandown before
4/15 – Previous Group One winners
3/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Trained by David O’Meara
2/15 – Won by Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 – Won by a previous winner of the race
3 of last 8 winners have come from stall 1
Addeybb (6/4 fav) the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 3/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Oh This Is Us came with a well-timed late run to win on the Lingfield Good Friday card last week, but this step into a Group Two will be harder, but the Hannon yard do have a good record in this race so I wouldn’t rule him out hitting the frame. Last year’s winner – Addeybb – is the only CD winner in the field and is also the top-rated in the line-up. He can go well and won first time out last season so the break is not a worry. He hasn’t won though since taking this race and was a beaten favourite last time out at Lingfield in a Listed race so does need to bounce back for me and this renewal does look better than last years. Sharaja Bridge was a good Listed race winner at Donny last time and will be popular too. This will be another step up in grade though and he might not be much value in the betting. Ryan Moore and Sir Michael Stoute team-up with Regal Reality, so is sure to have it’s supporters but off a mark of 109 does have a bit to find with some of these. But, the call goes to BEAT THE BANK. This Andrew Balding runner will find this a lot easier than the Group One’s he contested the last few runs, while his last three runs in this grade have ALL been winning ones. The yard, who also won this race in 2014, have started the season well and the stiff Sandown finish looks sure to suit. Of the rest, the David O’Meara yard have a fine record in the race – with wins in 2012 and 2015 – they run SUEDOIS (e/w). This 8 year-old is a former Group One winner that is still holding his form and is officially rated just a pound lower than Beat The Bank.

 

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