2019 Scottish Grand National Trends For Punters To Profit
You might still be celebrating having the recent Grand National winner at Aintree or contemplating what could have been if you felt your selection was unlucky.
However, the Grand National bandwagon continues this weekend as we get set for the final one on the jumps horse racing calendar – the Coral-sponsored SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL – this year run on Saturday April 13th at Ayr racecourse.
As, we all know the main National is the one at Aintree, but the Scottish version is up there as a close second with the Irish and Welsh renewals so it’s still a fascinating race.
Run over 4m, which is around 2 furlongs shorter than last weeks, but with 27 fences to jump too then it goes without saying stamina will still very much be the order of the day.
There will be a maximum of 30 runners too so – just like all the other Nationals a certain amount of luck is also required for runners and riders to avoid any fallers or loose horses.
However, being first run in 1858 and having a long history then there are also plenty of trends for punters to take in and hopefully use to find the best profiles of past winners.
For example…………………Did you know that ALL of the last 16 winners ran within the last 57 days, while 14 of the last 16 winners were aged 8 or older?
So, to help we’ve got the main ‘plus and minus’ 16 year trends to apply to the Scottish Grand National runners – by just following these simple rules you’ll at least have the make-up of past Scottish Grand National winners on your side when placing your bets.
Weight Watchers: The main cut-off point here is 10st9lbs. We’ve seen 12 0f the last 16 winners carry 10-9 or less in weight. However, it is worth noting that 3 of the last 6 winners carried 11-3 or more, while last year’s hero – Joe Farrell – won with 10st 6lbs.
Staying Power: Stamina is an absolute must-have when scanning down the entries – after all the race is over 4m! This is backed-up with 10 of the last 16 winners having won previously over 3m1f or further, while 5 of the last 16 had won over 3m7f or longer in their careers.
Recent Form: Coming into the race off the back of a fairly recent run, plus a decent finish last time out is another thing to look for. In the last 16 years a massive 14 of the last 16 winners finished in the top 6 in their most recent race, while 5 of the last 16 won last time out.
Age Concern: Experience is often seen as a big plus in any staying race but it’s not so key here. Yes, you really need to be 8 or older as we’ve seen 14 of the last 16 winners aged between 8 and 11 years old. We have, however, seen a few 7 year-olds take the race more recently (2013 and 2016) so you can’t totally rule out this age group but with just one 12 year-old (or older) winning since 1947 then really we can put a line through any of the older statemen in the race.
Who’s Your Favourite: The betting on the Scottish Grand National is always a competitive race and this year is expected to be no different. However, with just 1 winning favourite in the last 16 runnings then it’s not always been a kind race for punters that like to support the market leaders.
Market Toppers: We’ve already talked about the actual favourite, but this Scottish Grand National stat can be taken a bit further when you actually drill down into recent runnings. So, despite not many market leaders winning we’ve still seen 10 of the last 16 winners hail from the top 7 in the market, while 3 of the last 16 winners actually returned 15/2. We have had 12 of the last 16 winners return a double-figure price though (75%), including last year’s winner – Joe Farrell (33/1) – but if this is linked into the fact most have come from the top 7 horses in the market then really the price range to focus on is more like 10/1 to 16/1.
Fitness First: Probably the biggest trend in recent years, and a really easy way to whittle the 30 strong field down in one easy swoop, is just check how many days ago your fancy last ran. With ALL of the last 16 winners having raced in the last 57 days then we can quickly rule several out here. Yes, it’s always wise to give this stat a 2 or 3 day leeway for obvious reasons but we should still be able to knock out a fair few.
Recent Scottish Grand National Winners
2018 – JOE FARRELL (33/1)
2017 – VICENTE (9/1 jfav)
2016 – VICENTE (14/1)
2015 – WAYWARD PRINCE (25/1)
2014 – AL CO (40/1)
2013 – GODSMEJUDGE (12/1)
2012 – MERIGO (15/2)
2011 – BESHABAR (15/2)
2010 – MERIGO (18/1)
2009 – HELLO BUD (12/1)
2008 – IRIS de BALME (66/1)
2007 – HOT WELD (14/1)
2006 – RUN FOR PADDY (33/1)
2005 – JOES EDGE (20/1)
2004 – GREY ABBEY (12/1)
2003 – RYALUX (15/2)
Scottish Grand National Trends and Stats
16/16 – Last ran 57 days or less ago
14/16 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
14/16 – Aged 8 or older
13/16 – Irish or French-bred
13/16 – French or Irish bred
13/16 – Fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers
12/16 – Carried 10-9 or less
12/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/16 – Finished in the first three last time out
11/16 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
10/16 – Came from the first 7 in the betting market
10/16 – Had won over 3m1f or further
10/16 – Last raced between 30-57 days ago
6/16 – Won (fences) at Ayr before
6/16 – Had won (fences) at Ayr before
5/16 – Had won over 3m7f or further before
5/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Returned 15/2 in the betting
2/16 – Ran in the Grimthorpe Chase (Doncaster) last time out
2/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 3 winners)
1/16 – Winning favourites
2 of the last 7 winners were won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 21/1
JUICESTORM VERDICT: Plenty of key trends here – most notably 14 of the last 16 winners aged 8 or older. This actually knocks out the 7 year-old Dingo Dollar, who has been well supported in the build-up to this race all week. All of the last 16 winners also had run in the last 57 days but only Doing Fine, Cloth Cap and Cogry fall down on this. 12 of the last 16 carried 10-9 or less in weight though – so the top five on the card – Beware the Bear, Sizing Codelco, Vintage Clouds, who fell at the first in the Aintree Grand National last Saturday, Blue Flight and Dingo Dollar have this trend to overcome. The Irish raider – CROSSHUE BOY (e/w) – who won on this card last season looks interesting though. He is only 6lbs higher than when winning at the fixture last term, but in terms of weight only has 10-8 to carry here. A recent third at Wexford would have him spot-on for this and it’s interesting he makes the trip over again. Course winner – Big River – is another that ticks a lot of the boxes, as does the hat-trick seeking Chidswell. However, CROSSPARK (e/w) is the other runner that I’m going to side with. This 9 year-old was third in the Classic Chase at Warwick in January but built on that to win the Eider Chase at Newcastle last time out. Staying is not an issue and even though he’s rated 7lbs higher here, he’s still only got 10-8 in actual weight – he won the Eider Chase with 10-13. Harry Skelton is back riding and his record on the horse is very good 1-3-6-1-2-UR-1-1-3. Finally, of the rest, the consistent Geronimo, who is also a course winner, and Impulsive Star are others that can go well.
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