2019 Northumberland Plate Free Tips and Trends

Newcastle horse racing tips

Run at Newcastle racecourse over 2 miles the Northumberland Plate is one of the richest staying handicap races in the world.

Formerly known as the ‘Pitmen’s Derby’ the contest was first run in 1833 and being over 2 miles can often attract plenty of horses trained by National Hunt stables, while sponsors John Smith’s have supported the race now since 2003.

We take a look back at past winners and highlight the key trends and statistics to look out for when going through the race– this year run on Saturday 29th June 2019.

 

Past Northumberland Plate Winners

2018 – Withhold (5/1 fav)
2017 –  Higher Power (11/2)
2016 – Antiquarium (16/1)
2015 – Quest For More (15/2)
2014 – Angel Gabrial (4/1 fav)
2013 – Tominator (8/1)
2012 – Ile de Re (5/2 fav)
2011 – Tominator (25/1)
2010 – Overturn (14/1)
2009 – Som Tala (16/1)
2008 – Arc Bleu (14/1)
2007 – Juniper Girl (5/1 fav)
2006 – Toldo (33/1)
2005 – Sergeant Cecil (14/1)
2004 – Mirjan (33/1)
2003 – Unleash (10/1)
2002 – Bangalore (8/1)

Key Northumberland Plate Trends

16/17  – Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
16/17 – Finished fifth or better last time out
15/17 – Came from stall 14 or lower
15/17 – Aged 6 or younger
13/17 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
13/17 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
10/17 – Carried 8-12 or less
9/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/17 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
6/17 – Won by a National Hunt yard
5/17 – Won their previous race
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 11 winners)
3/17 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
2/17 – Trained by Donald McCain
2/17 – Trained by Roger Charlton (2 of last 4)
1/17 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 13/1
Note: The 2016, 2017 & 2018 running was staged on the All Weather track at Newcastle

Other Northumberland Plate Facts

No horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985
Five of the last 13 winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
Nine winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985, including 3 of the last 7
Paul Cole trained the winner in 1997, 1998 & 2001

JUICESTORM VERDICT: The Roger Varian runner – Gibbs Hill – has been the subject of a huge gamble all week so the bookies will be running scared if he goes in. He’s unexposed with just 7 runs, but does return from a 724 day break. The vibes are clearly positive and he’s gone well fresh in the past. A big player, but unless you were on at the bigger prices then no real value, while this 2m trip will also be the furthest he’s gone (1m4f prior to this was the longest he’d run over). CD winner – Cosmeli – was the winner of the consolation race 12 months ago and can’t be riled out at a big price, while Dubawi Fifty is another proven CD winner to have on your radar. Bartholomeu Dias won well here last time out but that was over 1m4f so the longer trip is a total unknown and he’s also up 4lbs. Of course, we’ve also got last year’s winner – Withhold (now a non-runner) – in the race. He’ll be looking to become the first back-to-back winner since Tug Of War in 1977-78. He’s had a wind op since his last run and is 8lbs higher than 12 months ago. Owner Tony Bloom also has the Willie Mullins-trained STRATUM (e/w) in the race and he looks the better value. He heads here after a hurdles win last month and has run well on the AW in the past (Kempton). Unlike a lot of the others, the trip will pose no issues either. Of the rest, with a string of wins next to his name the Mark Johnston runner – King’s Advice – is another that will draw the punter’s eye. He’s up from 1m6f to 2m here, plus raised another 3lbs in the handicap but does look a progressive stayer. The 8 year-old Red Galileo, for Godolphin, won well last time at Newmarket – beating Speedo Boy, who runs here too. But with 15 of the last 17 winners aged 6 or younger he’s overlooked. Speedo Boy also looks the sort to benefit from stepping back up in trip and with just 8-10 in weight he might be dangerous. Who Dares Wins is another that should be involved but he tends to place more than win these days and a the age of 7 falls down on the main age trend too. The final one to have an interest in is the Ian Williams runner – TIME TO STUDY (e/w). This 5 year-old was third in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal Meeting last week over 2m4f so staying this 2m trip will be fine. He’s won on the AW (Chelmsford) too and off a mark of 96 looks very well-treated considering he was rated as high as 108 when trained by Mark Johnston last year.

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