2019 John Smith’s Cup Betting Trends and Free Tips

York horse racing tips and trends

Run over 1m2f at York racecourse the John Smith’s Cup (originally the Magnet Cup) is one of the first races the well-known brewery decided to sponsor back in 1960, and having stuck loyal to the contest ever since means this is now the longest running association with a flat race in the world.

We take a look back at past winners and highlight some key John Smiths Cup trends to look out for ahead of the 2019 renewal, this year run on Saturday July 13th.


Did you know that 15 of the last 17 John Smith’s Cup winners were aged 5 or younger, while 13 of the last 17 winners came from stalls 9 or higher………………..?

 

Recent John Smith’s Cup Winners…….

2018 – Euchen Glen (20/1) Jim Goldie
2017 – Ballet Concerto (8/1) Sir Michael Stoute
2016 – Educate (18/1) Ismail Mohammed
2015 – Master Carpenter (14/1) Rod Millman
2014 – Farraaj (6/1) Roger Varian
2013 – Danchai (10/1) William Haggas
2012 – King’s Warrior (10/1) Peter Chapple-Hyam
2011 – Green Destiny (6/1) W Haggas
2010 – Wigmore Hall (5/1) M Bell
2009 – Sirvino (16/1) T Barron
2008 – Flying Clarets (12/1) R Fahey
2007 – Charlie Tokyo (11/1) R Fahey
2006 – Fairmile (6/1 jfav) W Swinburn
2005 – Mullins Bay (4/1 fav) AP O’Brien
2004 – Arcalis (20/1) J Howard Johnson
2003 –  Far Lane (7/1) B Hills
2002 – Vintage Premium (20/1) R Fahey

John Smith’s Cup Key Trends

 

16/17 – Returned 20/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Aged 5 or younger
15/17 – Had won over 1m1f or further before
13/17 – Came from stall 9 or higher
13/17 – Had between 3-5 previous runs already that season
11/17 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Carried 9-3 or less
11/17 – Top 4 finish in their previous race
10/17 – Aged 4 years-old
9/17 – Officially rated between 99-105
8/17 – Had run at York before
5/17 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
3/17 – Won by trainer Richard Fahey
2/17 – Trained by William Haggas
2/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 11/1

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Ultra-competitive as always with 22 runners heading to post. With 13 of the last 17 winners coming from stalls 9 or higher this will help though – meaning those drawn between 1-8 might struggle. Interestingly, one of those is the well-fancied Mountain Angel, who is drawn 3. 88% of the last 17 winners were aged 5 or younger too and even though this applies to most of them, it’s still a negative for Aasheq, Scarlet Dragon, Restorer, Another Touch and Waarif. The top-weight – Afaak – did well to win the Royal Hunt Cup after a 263 day break last month at Ascot and is only 5lbs higher here. He’s a course winner too, but it won’t be easy with a big weight (9-12). Coming here off the back off a good recent run is another good sign – 11 of the last 17 recorded a top four finish last time out. 4 year-olds also have fared well – winning over half of the last (58%) 17 renewals, while trainer William Haggas has often targeted this race with success too. Therefore, I’m happy to side with both his runners in the race – MY LORD AND MASTER (e/w) and BIG KITTEN (e/w). Yes, the first-named will have to overcome the low draw and also a 225 day break, but they are a stable more than capable of getting one ready after a lay-off. This 4 year-old hasn’t quite fulfilled it’s potential yet with just 9 career runs but had also since been gelded and the promising Cieren Fallon is a top booking (claims 5lbs). Their other runner – Big Kitten – is drawn 15 so that’s fine and despite flopping as a beaten favourite last time out at Windsor the drop back in trip will be a help. He gets in off the same mark, but in this better race only has 8-13 to carry and that’s 6lbs less than last time too. Others to note are Setting Sail, from the Godolphin yard, plus the consistent Scarlet Dragon, who is a proven course and distance winner. Buzz looks to be running into form after a solid third at York last time out in a better race and is another to consider.

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