2019 Grand National Free Tips and Trends

Grand National Betting Tips and Trends

2019 Grand National Betting Trends and Tips – The Randox Health Grand National is simply the biggest and most famous horse race in the world. Run at Aintree racecourse each year in early April the gruelling contest is run over a trip of 4 1/2 miles with the first ever winner being the appropriately-named Lottery.

With 40 runners to go through one popular angle on whittling down the field is to use some key trends – apply these to the 2019 Grand National runners and you’ll at least build up a profile of the type of horse it takes to win the Liverpool marathon.

Did you know that since 1978 only two horses have won carrying more than 11-5 in weight, while the last 7 year-old to win the race was in 1940?!

Here at JUICESTORM we look back at past winners and highlights the key betting trends ahead of the 2019 Aintree Grand National – this year run on Saturday 6th April – and sponsored for the first time by Randox Health.

Ok, at first glance with 40 runners contesting 30 fences for 4 1/4 miles the Aintree Grand National does have quite a scary look to it when it comes to trying to hunt down the winner – however, despite those daunting factors you can often find the Grand National winner by following a few simple tips and trends.

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Positive Grand National Pointers……………….

Horses that had won or finished placed in a National race of any description
Look for horses that raced over hurdles at some point earlier that season
Horses that like to be ridden up with the pace in their races often do well (avoid horses that like to be held up)
Irish-trained horses have a great recent record in the Grand National
Irish-bred horses have the best recent Grand National record
Look for horses that finished unplaced in the previous season’s Grand National – they often do well
Horses that have won over 3miles in the past is virtual ‘must-have’

Negative Grand National Pointers…………………

Horses aged 13 or older don’t have a great Grand National winning record
Runners that have fallen or unseated three or more times often don’t run well
Past Grand National winners and previous Grand National placed horses have bad returning records
Horses that had last raced over 50 days ago often don’t run well
Runners that had hard races at the Cheltenham Festival, run the previous month, don’t fare well. Although Tiger Roll kicked this trend into touch last year.

Weight Watchers: Some recent winners have carried 11st (or more) to victory, but looking back at recent trends make this weight your cut-off point. If you look back over the winners we’ve only seen the mighty Red Rum (1974 & 1977) and Many Clouds (2015) carry 11-8 or more – 22 of the last 28 winners carried 10-12 or less! Tiger Roll won with 10st 13lbs in 2019.

Staying Power: Stamina is an absolute must when scanning down the entries. Year-after-year there are always plenty of hype horses that are certainly talented, but the big question surrounding their chance is will they stay the grueling 4m 1/4f trip?  You have to trawl back to 1970 and a horse called Gay Trip to find the last victor that won the Grand National having not previously won over at least 3 miles.

Age Concern: Experience is a vital attribute when looking back at past Grand National winners with horses aged 9 years-old or OLDER certainly the ones to focus on. You have to go back to 1940 (Bogskar) to find the last 7 year-old to grab the Merseyside marathon! So, don’t be too put off if your fancy is in their twilight years – but not a teenager, while avoid horses aged 7 or 8! 23 of the last 28 winners were aged 9 or older! But it is worth pointing out three of the last four winners were 8 year-olds, suggesting there might be a bit of a turning point in this age stat.

Luck Of The Irish: Our friends from the across the Irish Sea have raided these shores to win the Aintree Grand National many times in recent years, so certainly take a second glance at any of their runners. 5 of the last 14 winners came from Irish-based stables, including 2 of the last three.

Fencing Master: With thirty of the most unique obstacles in horse racing to contend with then having previous form over the tricky Grand National fences can be a huge advantage. Many recent Grand National winners had previously been tried over these Grand National-style fences in the past. The Topham Chase and Becher Chase – or a previous run in the big race itself – are the main races that are staged at Aintree racecourse over the same Grand National-style fences to look back at.

Who’s Your Favourite: The betting on the Grand National always picks up pace in the weeks building up to the big day, but on the Saturday itself, when the once-a-year punters hit the high streets, this is when the betting market really kicks into gear. It’s also worth noting that the weights for the Grand National are issued well in advance (normally in February each year), so with some horses often running well after they’ve been given their allocated weight and before the race then this can also impact the ante post Grand National betting. 5 of the last 27 runnings have been won by the favourite (19%), while 15 of the last 28 (54%) market leaders were placed (top 4 finish)!

Market Toppers: We’ve already talked about the actual favourite, but this Grand National trend can be taken a bit further when you actually drill down into recent runnings. In fact, most winners in recent years started in the first eight of the Grand National betting market – indicating that despite the Venetia Williams-trained, Mon Mome, popping-up at 100/1 in 2009, that punters generally tend to get this race right. 9 of the last 16 winners came from the top 8 in the betting market!

Fitness First: Probably the biggest trend in recent years, and a really easy way to whittle the 40 strong field down in one easy swoop, is just check how many days ago your fancy last ran. The majority of the recent Grand National winners had their previous race no more than 48 days prior to the big day. While if you want to drill this trend down a bit further than you’ll notice that a large amount of recent winners of the Grand National actually raced less than 40 days prior to landing the greatest steeplechase in the world. 27 of the last 28 winners ran no more than 55 days ago, while 22 of the last 28 raced no more than 34 days ago!

Recent Grand National Winners

2018 – Tiger Roll (10/1)
2017 – One For Arthur (14/1)
2016 – Rule The World 33/1
2015 – Many Clouds 25/1
2014 – Pineau De Re 25/1
2013 – Auroras Encore 66/1
2012 – Neptune Collonges 33/1
2011 – Ballabriggs 14/1
2010 – Don’t Push It 10/1jfav
2009 – Mon Mome 100/1
2008 – Comply or Die 7/1 jfav
2007 – Silver Birch 33/1
2006 – Numbersixvalverde 11/1
2005 – Hedgehunter 7/1 fav
2004 – Amberleigh House 16/1
2003 – Monty’s Pass 16/1
2002 – Bindaree 20/1
2001 – Red Marauder 33/1
2000 – Papillon 10/1
1999 – Bobbyjo 10/1
1998 – Earth Summit 7/1 fav
1997 – Lord Gyllene 14/1
1996 – Rough Quest 7/1 fav
1995 – Royal Athlete 40/1
1994 – Miinnehoma 16/1
1993 – VOID RACE
1992 – Party Politics 14/1
1991 – Seagram 12/1
1990 – Mr Frisk 16/1

Aintree Grand National Trends (Last 28 Runnings)

· 27/28 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
· 27/28 – Officially rated 137 or higher
· 26/28 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
· 25/28 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
· 23/28 – Aged 9 or older
· 23/28 – Returned a double-figure price
· 22/28 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
· 21/28 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
· 22/28 – Carried 10-13 OR LESS
· 19/28 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
· 16/28 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
· 17/28 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
· 17/28 – Aged 10 years-old or younger
· 15/28 – Placed favourites
· 14/28 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
· 15/28 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
· 10/28 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
· 9/28 – Trained in Ireland (inc 6 of the last 13 years)
· 6/28 – Ran in a previous Grand National
· 5/28 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
· 6/28 – Won last time out
· 2/28 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
· 2/28 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
· 2/28 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
· 2/28 – Ridden by Leighton Aspell
· 0/28 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts

    • Since 1978, 124 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just two winners – Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
    • 15 of the last 20 winners were bred in Ireland
    • Only 2 horse that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961
    • The last 7 year-old or younger to win was back in 1940
    • 12 of the last 22 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before
    • No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
    • 3 of the last 10 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
    • 9 of the last 16 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
    • 5 of the last 17 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
    • Only four 8 year-olds have won the last 25 renewals
    • Just one past winner or placed horse from the previous year’s race has won for 34 years (76 have attempted)
    • 20 of the last 22 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
    • The last horse to win back-to-back Nationals was Red Rum in 1974

Aintree Grand National Betting Trends (16 Year)

15/16 – Had won over at least 3m previously
14/16 – Ran less than 50 days ago
14/16 – Officially rated 137 or higher
13/16 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
9/16 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
9/16 – Winners from the top 8 in the betting
9/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/16 – Experienced the National fences
6/16 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
6/16 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
5/16 – Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
4/16 – Won their last race
3/16 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
2/16 – Won by the McCain yard
2/16 – Won by the Gordon Elliott yard

JUICESTORM VERDICT: Right onto the ‘BIG ONE’!! The big questions this year are will we see the first back-to-back winner since Red Rum in 1974, will we see the first horse to ‘regain’ his Grand National title since……you guessed it – Red Rum (1974), or will we have another new champion?

TIGER ROLL is the obvious place to start, as last year’s winner has been supported as if defeat is out of the question in the last three weeks – we’ll since his Cheltenham Cross Country romp in the middle of March. However, at around 4/1 then surely – with all respect and sorry of you do fancy him – you need your head tested! There are 39 other runners in the race, plus 30 tricky fences to tackle. Yes, he’s proven in the past the obstacles are no problem, but he’s also rated 9lbs higher this year and is carrying 6lbs more in actual weight! Don’t forget, he only held on by a neck last year too and surely in another few strides Pleasant Company would have caught him.

In my view the Cross-Country race lack strength-in-depth and even though he won it very easily I’m not sure he beat a lot. This time he’s got to contend with horses that have been placed in Gold Cups, while it’s hard to ignore the stat that the last back-to-back winner was in 1974 – and many have tried.

Those in favour of the Tiger roaring again will say he’s a much better horse this year so the extra weight won’t be a problem – and maybe there is some truth in that. Some are even saying he should run in the Gold Cup next Cheltenham and with his record at the Festival, I agree it’s worth a crack.

The ground should also be a lot easier than last year’s heavy conditions so that will help in carrying the extra weight. But, let’s not forget, it will also help those at the foot of the handicap that have featherweights to carry.

However, even with 11st 5lbs to carry here, he’ll be looking to become only the fourth horse in the last 35 runnings to win with such a burden., while did you know – 10 of the last 11 National winners were making their debuts in the race?

In short, I love the horse and I’d love to see him win again, but at 4/1 (or shorter), then – you have to agree 0 there is certainly no value in backing him at those odds. If you are on at a bigger price, then good luck to you, BUT THE TIGER IS NOT FOR ME!

Anibale Fly, Valtor, Outlander, Don Poli and Go Conquer all have 11-3 or more in weight to carry too, so they are not for me. Yes, Anibale Fly was a gallant fourth in the race last year and ran a blinder in the Gold Cup last month – that form certainly makes him the one to beat but as a result he’s also got 11-10 to carry and, for me, that will surely take it’s toll over this 4m 2 1/2f trip.

Last year’s runner-up Pleasant Company is rated 7lbs higher but having completed in the last two Nationals (9th in 2017) then he looks a solid each-way option, or at least a bet to complete if you prefer.

The two-time Topham Chase winner – ULTRAGOLD – would be an interesting contender too as he seems to save his best for these fences. I certainly wouldn’t put you off backing him, but the big unknown is the trip. The Topham is run over 2m5f and he’s yet to win beyond 3m. Did you know 15 of the last 16 winners had previously won over at least 3 miles? Having said that, his record over the fences and the better ground mean he’s hard to ignore and he ran oaky (5th of 12) over 3m5f in the Classic Chase at Warwick back in January so there is certainly some hope he’ll get home.

Jockey Richard Johnson is still looking for his first win in the race – he rides Rock The Kasbah, but even though he’s a horse that’s gone well fresh in the past his 113-day absence would be a worry – a massive 14 of the last 16 winners had run in the last 50 days!

Away from Tiger Roll, the rest of the main Irish challenge this year looks to come from Rathvinden and Jury Duty. Both head into the race in tip-top form after with wins and staying shouldn’t be an issue for either. Rathvinden landed the 4m race at the Cheltenham Festival last season and the Willie Mullins team have kept this 11 year-old fresh for this with just one run this season. A certain Ruby Walsh, who will be looking for his third National success, is an obvious plus in the saddle. He’s making his National debut, but that is a strong stat, so really it’s hard to find faults in his chance. If you want to cling to something to take him on with then the fact he’s unseated and been brought down in two of his last five races might suggest he needs to be careful at these tricky fences – still a very big candidate though, that is running for some powerful connections.

Jury Duty also hails from a top Irish yard – the Gordon Elliott camp. He’s won his last two in decent fashion and this 8 year-old has time on his side for more improvement too. He beat Mala Beach but just over 6 lengths last time at Down Royal and gets in here with the perfect weight of 10st 11lbs. Another that is making his debut in the race but generally a sound jumper that has unseated just once from 11 runs over fences. With 9 top three finishes to his name from those 11 runs over the bigger obstacles then he’s another of the Irish challengers that must have a say. My only slight niggle is the trip as he’s only tried 4m once before (Cheltenham) and didn’t seem to be seeing that out when unseating. On a plus, Robbie Power is in the saddle and he’s won this race before (Silver Birch, 2007), oh and that was also trained by a certain Gordon Elliott – could history be about to repeat itself?

Rameses De Teillee will be looking to give the Pipes their third win in the race and this improving staying grey will have it’s supporters too after running second in the Grand National Trial at Haydock in February and finishing runner-up in the Welsh National over Christmas. However, he’s still only 7 years-old and do you know when the last horse to win the National aged 7 was? I’ll tell you……1940!

The 2017 winner – One For Arthur – can’t be ruled out, as he’s still only 10, but he’s a horse that’s clearly had his issues (missed the race last year) and head here having unseated in his last two races – hardly ideal preparation. He’s got 3lbs more to carry and is rated 6lbs higher.

Mr Grand National – Trevor Hemmings – who has won the race three times before will have a string hand too with Warriors Tale, Lake View Lad and Vintage Clouds – the trio should all be respected.

Warriors Tale is a course winner too, after landing the Grand Sefton here in November with 11st 12lbs on his back. He’s only got 10-13 this time but having been pulled up in the race last year then this would be a concern.

Therefore, LAKE VIEW LAD and VINTAGE CLOUDS might be the better of the Hemmings pair to focus on and both make their debuts in the race – don’t forget, that’s a good stat.

LAKE VIEW LAD is a consistent staying chaser that’s finished in the top 3 a massive 11 times from his 12 runs over fences. We last saw him running a blinder in the Ultima Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and he gets in here off the same mark. Yes, the longer trip is a slight unknown, but he ticks most of the main trends and is right on the cusp of the weight trend with 11st 1lb.

VINTAGE CLOUDS gets in with a much lower weight of just 10st 4lbs and comes from the Sue Smith yard that won this in 2013. He also ran in that Ultima Chase at the Festival last month when second and that was his first run back after a wind op too – it clearly helped. Again, he’s in here off the same mark and with 11 top three finishes from 16 runs over fences he’s another consistent staying chaser. He was 4th in the 2017 Welsh National and 7th in the 2017 Scottish National, so the trip should be fine too.

Another horse that ticks a lot of boxes is the Rebecca Curtis-trained Joe Farrell. This 10 year-old just scrapped into the race as number 40, but with a light weight he looks to have a top chance. He landed the Scottish National last season and warmed up for this with a solid second at Newbury last time out. He’s only had two runs this season so will be a lot fresher than most and we know he stays this sort of trip. He looks one for the shortlist too.

Others to note based on the trends……………………….

WALK IN THE MILL – Missed out last year by just a few horses but is firmly in the race this time. Winner of the Becher Chase here back in December so we know the fences are fine and that experience will be a big plus. He gets in with just 10st 4lbs and should be spot-on for this after a fine third at Exeter last month. Yes, his mark suggests a career-best is needed, but he still has a light weight and the proven track-winning form makes him interesting.

TEA FOR TWO – Unseated last time out in the Cross-Country race at the Cheltenham Festival, but was making heading at the time. Yes, would have been a shock if he’d had beaten Tiger Roll that day but he may well have been placed. He gets 10lbs this time off Tiger and only has 10st 9lbs to carry in weight, while let’s not forget this 10 year-old was third in the 2017 King George and beat Cue Card in the Betway Bowl here at Aintree in 2017 too. Like most of these he’ll be entering unknown territory with the trip but is his last run was anything to go by then he’s certainly worth a crack at it. Lizzie Kelly, who rode a winner at the Cheltenham Festival, will be looking to become the first female-winning rider of the National…….and we all know this race loves to throw-up a story!

SINGLEFARMPAYMENT – A horse that’s got a reputation of not being the most resolute in a finish. He’s looked all over the winner several times in the past only to finish second and many will argue that’s not a great attribute to be taking into a race like the National. However, with 10st 6lbs this will be the lightest weight he’s ever raced with and if getting into a rhythm that light burden could be dangerous. The experienced Paddy Brennan rides and with age, making debut in the race, weight and having a recent run (13th in Ultima Chase) all positive trends then, of those at bigger prices he might be worth having an interest in.

MAIN BETS:

VINTAGE CLOUDS
JOE FARRELL
LAKE VIEW LAD

Best Of The Rest:
ULTRAGOLD
TEA FOR TWO
SINGLEFARMPAYMENT

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