English Championship Trading Focus
Some cracking results from last week’s advice – we hope you were on!
Saturday 10th August 2019
Leeds v Nottm Forest
Leeds will be very popular here, but they have only beaten Forest once in the last six head to head at Elland Road. All six of those games ended Under 2.5 goals and that is a fair shout here at around 2.00. Leeds played well enough at Bristol City but didn’t dominate as may have been expected and 1.57 is short enough to consider a small lay of the home side. Forest were a little unlucky not to get something out of the West Brom game as they forced the issue more and they are more than capable of getting something here or at least pushing Leeds a long way. Lay Leeds at 1.57 and trade out if Forest lead or they are level at 75 minutes.
Derby v Swansea
Derby have won the last two meetings at Pride Park by 2-1 and last season, both sides scored in both games. Derby won away at Huddersfield and looked good in parts but were lucky that Huddersfield were poor in front of goal and there may not be a lot between them and Swansea who fought back well to beat Hull. The preferred trading option here is both teams to score at 1.80.
Cardiff v Luton
There have be no recent head to head. Cardiff played well at Wigan ending on the wrong end of a five-goal cracker and showed they will be thereabouts at the business end of the season. Luton also held their own against a strong Middlesbrough side to end with a 3-3 draw and on first evidence should be fine this season, although they did look a little vulnerable at the back. Cardiff will be popular at 1.83 but I just prefer Over 2.5 goals at 1.91 as it gives us a better trading option.
Charlton v Stoke
There have be no recent head to head. Charlton will have been delighted with their win at Blackburn and that will give them huge confidence going into their first home game, whilst Stoke were poor at home to an inspired QPR and looked devoid of ideas. Whilst Stoke will be very popular at 2.30, I would have needed to see much more against QPR to consider them away from home. Charlton may be the new boys but 3.40 is a bit of an insult on last week’s display and that is worth a small interest with a view to trading if they lead.
Middlesboro v Brentford
On recent head to head stats, there should be goals here with four of the last six being Over 2.5 goals and five of the last six seeing both teams score. Boro had a cracking six goal thrilling draw at Luton on the opening day with Brentford struggling in defeat at home to Birmingham and in addition they have now lost their talisman goalscorer Neal Maupay to Brighton. Goals may be Brentford’s problem and my initial interest in Over 2.5 goals at 1.95 has waived a little. It may still be a trading option and trade out if two goals. The other option is to go with the home side at 2.40 and trade for your stake back if they lead.
Hull v Reading
Four recent meetings in Hull ended 3-1, 0-0, 2-1 and 1-0. Reading did not look too good when beaten by Sheff Wed so Hull, who played well enough to lead at Swansea, before losing, should continue that fine home record and at 2.10 as a trading option, that should pay dividends, as we can trade for our stake back if they lead.
Preston v Wigan
Only four recent meetings with the two games in Preston ending 4-0 and 1-0. Wigan battled back well to beat Cardiff, showing the kind of resilience needed in this league and this could be a tough bruising battle. Preston never got going at Millwall and deserved nothing from the game, so it is vital they don’t lose this one. With that in mind I can see the game being tight with both teams scoring at 1.83 the best trading option.
QPR v Huddersfield
Five of the last six head to head saw both teams score with the three games at Loftus Road ending 1-2, 1-1 and 2-1. QPR won well at Stoke and Huddersfield probably should have got a point at home to Derby, so this should be a decent game. QPR had a surprising victory at Stoke, although we did suggest they were value at the price, as Stoke appear to be overrated. I expect goals here with Over 2.5 goals at 2.00 and Over 3.5 goals at 3.60, both viable options for trading purposes.
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